Betting Blog: Arsenal shouldn’t mourn Cesc Fabregas & Samir Nasri, Copa America promises to be open, plus tips

July 1, 2011

101

By JD

1 Jul 2011 18:59:00

Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal London

Teams

June proved to be very volatile on the football betting markets. It lacked the consistency and profit that I normally associate with the month.

This week has been mixed as we landed a double in the Europa League and a bet in the goals market. The New Saints were the main letdown of the week as they could only draw 1-1 with Cliftonville.

You never stop learning in life and the same applies to betting, especially when you do it for a living. Punters should take note that it is essential that you keep learning and always take something from the good times as well as the bad periods.

You will become a much more rounded and accomplished bettor in the long term. On a personal note I am looking forward to July with relish and there is lots of football action to keep us bettors occupied, including the Copa America, which kicks off this weekend. More of that later.

JD on…New Strategies

Any punter worth his salt should always be striving to get the edge in the industry and trying new strategies. During the summer, when football is quieter than usual, use your time wisely to plan for the new campaign.

Give yourself a profit target and work out a proper system to achieve that. There are many different betting formulas and tactics you can use so focus on one that you feel most comfortable with and apply it.

You do not have to be a betting ‘expert’ or know the ins and outs of the Swedish second tier to make money from football. It is often the gambler that applies a proper system to his betting who makes the most money.

To use a football analogy, it is like a team that is well organised, where every each player knows his job very well, are a hard side to beat and generally get the desired results. Perhaps they may not be the most talented but their system is effective. Inter under Jose Mourinho springs to mind.

Many astute bettors make money from the goals market or from draws or even a certain player scoring each week. It is very much an individual thing.

From a personal perspective I’ve been working on a goals strategy in recent months and have been very impressed with the profits it has yielded. If I achieve similar results in July, I will introduce it fully in August just in time for the new season.

JD on…Summer Transfers

This period in the year is always rampant with transfer speculation and news. For the media it is easy copy, and of course we all gobble the latest rumour and half-story with relish.

Arsenal fans have been in uproar this week with news that they intend to flog Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri in the transfer window. Fabregas is on the verge of joining Barcelona, the club that nursed him through his early football years, and there is no doubt they are in his DNA.

He is around 1/5 to leave Arsenal by the end of the transfer window and those odds certainly reflect the reality that the wantaway Gunner is about to say au revoir to Arsene Wenger.

Samir Nasri has only one year left on his contract and it makes commercial sense to sell him now rather than get nothing next season when he is available for free. The truth of the matter is that both players have expressed a desire to leave, so Arsenal fans should not shed too many tears.

It is up to the club to get the best possible price and use that money wisely. Besides, the Gunners haven’t exactly won a shed-load of trophies with Fabregas and Nasri in the team anyway.

Arsenal fans shouldn’t fret too much as most of the transfer dealings are done in July. No doubt the Professor has a plan to cope without his unhappy superstars.

Also in London, it will be fascinating to see who Chelsea bring in now they have secured Andre Villas-Boas. He’s promised to win trophies in style and is not meant to be super keen on Luka Modric joining the Blue revolution. The Croat is now 2/1 to move to Chelsea and a better bet looks to be Falcao to also swap Porto for Stamford Bridge @ 4/7.

JD on…Copa America

South American football is on the agenda with the cream of the continent serving up a treat in Argentina. The Copa America should be savoured and the late kick-offs make it all the more inviting for European viewers who may be bleary-eyed for work the next morning!

Hosts Argentina may well win the trophy on home soil but are too short for me at 5/4. Brazil are better value at 5/2 but don’t discount Colombia, Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile, who can break up the continent’s duopoly. This promises to be an open tournament so sit back, enjoy the games and bet sensibly.

And finally…

Thank you to everyone who signed up to jdfootballbetting.com recently. If you have an interest in joining us, there is a special offer available at this time.Contact me on [email protected] for further details

JD’s Tip

* Paraguay to beat Ecuador @ 5/6

JD is Goal.com’s betting blogger is a professional punter with a stock market background. You can visit his personal site here.

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