Why finishing third could be crucial for Arsenal or Manchester City

EPL, Arsenal v Blackburn Rovers, Arsene Wenger

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ANALYSIS
By Jonathan Birchall

Manchester City’s victory over Stoke on Tuesday evening saw them leapfrog Arsenal into third place in the Premier League and twist the knife further into Arsene Wenger‘s side, whose end of season form may have cost them more than many would expect.

With talk of being in the top four the minimum goal required for the Gunners, the Frenchman’s charges have more than taken their foot off the gas since Manchester United extinguished any slight embers of hope that the north London side may have had of picking up the Premier League title when they beat Chelsea at Old Trafford a fortnight ago.

Since then, Manchester City have accelerated past them, remaining consistent in the league despite securing an FA Cup win and are now favourites to take third spot ahead of a tricky trip to the Reebok Stadium on the last day of the season.

With a number of tricky potential fixtures in the Champions League qualifiers coming after a congested summer, whoever finishes fourth are in danger of not qualifying for the tournament’s group stage – an achievement that guarantees an estimated £28.5 million. This figure would potentially rise to £45m if either side were to reach next season’s knockout rounds, a feat that Arsenal have achieved in 11 straight seasons.

When will the fourth-placed team be playing?

Whoever finishes fourth would automatically be entered into the Champions League play-off round which would include two legs; the first being on August 16 or 17 and the second coming on August 23 or 24, nearly a month earlier than they would kick off their European campaign if they were to secure third.

These dates come either side of the second weekend of the Premier League, throwing both sides in at the deep end following a summer that is looking ever more congested.

If the Gunners do indeed fail to automatically qualify for the group stages, it couldn’t come at a worse time. 

The club are set to announce a pre-season tour to south Asia in mid-July, as opposed to Wenger’s usual method of travelling to Austria due to its geographical benefits.

A tour would be lucrative for the club, with the Asian market known for offering high revenue, but at the club’s AGM in October, the Frenchman insisted that he would only allow it to go ahead if the benefits stretched further than bankrolling the club.

He said: “I am under pressure from the club to do it but I want to start the season well. If it’s just to make money then no. If for other reasons, then maybe yes.”

In addition, Arsenal are also taking place in the Emirates Cup, taking place on July 30 & 31, just over a fortnight before the first leg of a potential play-off.

City have an equally trying summer, with an appearance in the World Football Challenge in the US in mid-July followed by the Dublin Super Cup on July 30 & 31, leaving them as equally short on recuperation time as the Gunners. Both sides would also have to take into account England’s clash with the Netherlands at Wembley on August 10, as well as a number of other international friendlies that are taking place three days before the start of the season.

Fab out of gas | Gunners have surrendered third spot with a late-season slump

Who could they come up against? 

In the previously explained play-off round, there are 20 teams divided into champions and non-champions. Arsenal’s high seed, bettered only by last year’s finalists Bayern Munich, leaves Wenger’s men in the fortunate position of not having to face Villarreal, Benfica or Bayern themselves. Manchester City, however, could face these sides due to their relatively poor coefficient ranking if they were to be pipped to third on Sunday.

However, there are a number of ties that could leave the Gunners sweating over their place in the competition. A potential clash with either Udinese or Lazio would arguably be the most fearsome, with Dutch side Twente and a trip to Russia to face Rubin Kazan would also be potentially tricky, especially considering the travelling involved at such an early stage in the season. Another likely opponent is Ukrainian giants Dinamo Kiev, another side that Wenger would be looking to avoid if they were to finish fourth come Sunday evening.

Arsenal fans can take comfort in their phenomenal record of Champions League qualification and having been in this position before, albeit with less trying surrounding circumstances, Wenger will know that his side will be favourites to make it to the group stage regardless of their opponents.

The last time the club were in a play-off, they beat Celtic 5-1 on aggregate, having beaten Twente 6-0 the season before that and Sparta Prague 5-0 over the two legs. There is an argument to be made, however, that this could potentially be the club’s biggest challenge in qualifying yet.

For City, the competition is very much an unknown quantity and the possibility of coming up against some the finest sides in Europe at such an early stage would threaten to rock them before they even got into the tournament proper.

Of course, there is still the possibility that a victory or even a draw against Fulham on Sunday would be enough to take third spot for Arsenal if Roberto Mancini’s men were to stumble away to Bolton. However, with only five points in their last six games and the Eastlands outfit cruising, it’s looking likely that Arsene Wenger should be starting to prepare for a long, tense summer. The heat is certainly on for the Arsenal whereas City will be hoping that they can keep their cool.