Why Manchester United & Wolves should plan the celebrations early but Blackpool, West Ham & Wigan fans should stop reading now

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ANALYSIS
By Jessica Harman

Manchester United look set to win a record 19th Premier League title, whilst Wigan, West Ham and Blackpool will be this season’s relegated sides, and Manchester City will bag a Champions League spot, edging Liverpool out of European football next season.

That, anyway, is what the Castrol EDGE Rankings predict.

As we come to the climax of the football season with only a handful of fixtures remaining, in a campaign that has seen the closet relegation battle in Premier League history, as well as a title race which could well go down to the bitter end, it seems surprising that the final Premier League standings can be mathematically predicted.

Surprising, but true, and if the Castrol EDGE predictions – calculated using statistics from the past ten months, with the most recent results holding more relevance – are correct, then Manchester United’s final points tally of 80 will be enough to see them crowned Premier League champions.

United will not necessarily have it all their own way in their final games, as they are predicted to pick up only seven points out of a potential twelve; the points likely to be dropped during clashes with Arsenal and Chelsea.

However, Castrol EDGE predict that the points will still be enough to help the Red Devils beat second-placed Chelsea and third-placed Arsenal to the title, as they give Sir Alex Ferguson’s men a convincing 90% chance of winning the league. 

Kenny Dalglish’s revitalised Liverpool side will miss out on a European place altogether if Manchester City, as predicted, hold onto the lucrative Champions League spot, leaving Tottenham with a Europa League place.

This would result in FA Cup finalists Stoke City being rewarded with a Europa League spot, irrespective of the result at Wembley, and a first appearance on the European stage for Tony Pulis’s side.

The only scenario that would ensure Liverpool do not miss out on a place in Europe for the first time in over a decade, is if Manchester City win the FA Cup and finish in fifth place in the league, something Castrol EDGE predict as only 17% likely.

If correctly predicted, fourth-place Manchester City will qualify for the Champions League qualifying stage, and so, win or lose in the FA Cup final, the ‘extra’ Europa League spot would be given to Stoke, either by qualifying in the traditional manner as domestic cup winners, or being handed down the honour as domestic cup runners-up, since City would have already qualified for the more prestigious Champions League competition.

It has also been predicted that the newly-promoted Blackpool side, who are currently 17th in the league, will slip into the relegation zone and conclude the season rock bottom of the Premier League. The Seasiders are predicted to end on 37 points, and therefore, would only pick up three points from their remaining four Premier League fixtures, not surprising when they face tricky games against Manchester United and Tottenham.

Blackpool’s predicted doomed fate will bring jubilation to Wolves fans, as Mick McCarthy’s side look to benefit from their demise and climb out of the relegation zone into the safety of 17th position. Six points from the Wanderers’ last stretch of games will apparently be enough to seal the club’s Premier League status for next year, with a 46% chance of finishing 17th or above.

According to Castrol EDGE’s relegation predictions, there will be no other major changes at the bottom of the table by the end of the season, with both West Ham and Wigan failing to propel themselves out of the drop zone.

The only consolation for the Hammers is that they are predicted to climb one place off the bottom of the table before the season ends. Both teams’ fans will also take some comfort in knowing their teams are predicted to pick up a handful of points before their relegation to the Championship.

THE PREDICTED PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE IN FULL

To find out more about Castrol EDGE Football, and the predictions and statistics they offer, click here.