Osun: At the dawn of a new political order

Twenty-four hours to the House of Assembly election, TUNDE ODESOLA examines the victory of the Action Congress of Nigeria in the two previous polls in Osun State and its impending battle with the Peoples Democratic Party on Tuesday

Do not build fortresses to protect yourself; isolation is dangerous,” 52-year-old Jewish-American author, Robert Greene, explains in his 452-page- book, The 48 Laws of Power, which deals with the dynamics of social and political power.

The Peoples Democratic Party in Osun State failed to obey this law of power shortly after it assumed power in the underdeveloped state as it isolated itself from the masses. The journey to failure of the Osun PDP was led by a leadership, which employed selective justice in dealing with intra-party, social and political problems. The bitter struggle for Osun PDP’s governorship ticket shattered the PDP’s umbrella into shrapnel as the Alhaji Ademola Rasaq-led state executive failed to unite the party. Shortly after losing power to the PDP, the Action Congress of Nigeria, which was bundled out of the Oke-Fia Government House in 2003, after an industrial disagreement with the state’s workforce, went back to the drawing board, devising strategies to democratically wrest power from the Olagunsoye Oyinlola-led administration. When the ACN, backed by a former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, thrust a former commissioner for Works and Transport in Lagos State, Mr Rauf Aregbesola, forward to contest the governorship seat against Oyinlola, the PDP failed to evolve a pragmatic counter-attack political strategy to check the sweeping big broom from Lagos.

The PDP simply went into an orgy of delusion, vowing that Tinubu can never be the leader of the Yoruba just as it described Aregbesola as a non-indigene of Osun State. The people of Osun, however, on April 14, 2007 decided to vote for the ‘non-indigene,’ whose country house is at Ogbon Arogbo, Ilesa, where his octogenarian mother lives till date. The Justice Clara Ogunbiyi-led Appeal Court panel affirmed this position when it ruled that Aregbesola was the authentic winner of the controversial election. There was an outbreak of joy, even within the PDP on November 26, 2010, when the Appeal Court gave victory to Aregbesola because the party had been fractionalised by deep-seated hate, suspicion and greed.

Within three months in power, Aregbesola has delivered on his promise of creating 20, 000 jobs and rejuvenation of farm settlements established by the late Yoruba leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo. That Aregbesola has a cult-like following in Osun, is not in doubt. His acceptability by Osun indigenes and residents evolved from his long-drawn battle against the Oyinlola administration; a battle which the masses, over the years, perceived as persecution. Aregbesola’s connectivity with the masses issues from his simplicity. From the outset of his administration, he chose not to be referred to as His Excellency, he dresses simply and his convoy, unlike Oyinlola’s, does not blare siren and it stops to obey traffic lights. In Osun, Aregbesola is ACN and ACN is Aregbesola. Every ACN candidate in the ongoing general elections reaped bountifully from the goodwill of the Aregbesola brand. Without Aregbesola, it is in doubt whether any of ACN’s candidates in the general election can defeat their PDP counterparts.

It will be recalled that the presidential candidate of the ACN, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, did not make the presidential rally organised by Osun ACN in Osogbo as he came in late to Osun from Ekiti, where he had gone to campaign. Yet, the only state won by Ribadu in the presidential election is Osun.

The defeat of Oyinlola, Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation, Chief Iyiola Omisore, and Chairman, Senate Committee on Independent National Electoral Commission, Chief Isiaka Adeleke, and PDP House of Representatives members in the National Assembly election held recently confirmed the new power equation in Osun. The PDP had contended that it was more popular than the ACN and that the verdict of the Justice Clara Ogunbiyi-led Appeal Court panel was biased. However, the routing of the PDP in the National Assembly and presidential elections in Osun has driven yet another nail into the Osun PDP, which is on the cross. Whether the PDP will resurrect or not in Osun will be seen at the end of the House of Assembly election on Tuesday. Unlike the outright routing of the PDP in the NASS elections, the PDP won elections in three of the 30 local government councils during the April 16, 2011 presidential election. The councils include Ede-North, Ede-South, where Adeleke and the Speaker, Osun State House of Assembly, Chief Adejare Bello, hail from. Omisore also won Ife-Central for the PDP.

In The 48 Laws of Power, Greene says on page 107: “Crush your enemies totally. All great leaders since (biblical) Moses have known that a feared enemy must be crushed completely. If one ember is left alight, no matter how dimly it smoulders, fire will eventually break out. The enemy will recover, and will seek revenge. Crush it not only in body but in spirit.” The failure of the ACN to crush the PDP totally during the presidential election in the South-West might come with consequences. Now, the hitherto crest-fallen PDP has a bragging right to the House of Assembly and governorship elections in South-West states like Lagos, Oyo and Ogun. The governorship and House of Assembly elections will produce surprises.

The Director, Research and Strategy, Osun ACN, Mr Sunday Akere, had boasted before the National Assembly elections that the elections would sound the death knell for the PDP in Osun. He said, “The PDP is out with its best eleven players, which includes two former governors, a former deputy governor, among others. When all these PDP leaders fall like a pack of cards at the polls, this will be the end of the PDP in Osun.”

But the National Vice Chairman, South-West PDP, Alhaji Tajudeen Oladipo, said that the PDP remained a strong party in the South-West, predicting that the party will recover from its setback. Oladipo said, “Did you see the way the masses trooped out to vote for President Goodluck Jonathan? The PDP will repeat the same feat during the governorship and Houses of Assembly election in the South-West. PDP is a truly national party. The ACN is not.”

Will the PDP rise again in Osun? For the once-upon-a-time vibrant party, these are trying times. Osun PDP was formidable with the likes of Oyinlola, Omisore, Adeleke, Fatai Akinbade Ademola, Oluwole Oke, Olusola Obada, Abiola Morakinyo and Peter Babalola, who has defected to the ACN, but the party failed woefully to manage its electoral success and like Humpty Dumpty, it suffered a great fall. After the fall, many PDP chieftains have been looking the way of President Goodluck Jonathan for federal appointments.

In future political contests, both the ACN and the PDP will profit from the dictum by the late winner of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, Chief MKO Abiola, who said, “there is enough for our need but not for our greed.” Unlike the charade of elections conducted by the Prof. Maurice Iwu-led INEC, the Nigerian electorate are the wiser for it; they are poised to change ineffective governments via the ballot.