Who Will Be Next Face of Opposition?

. Moses Mulondo

2 April 2011

AFTER losing thrice to President Yoweri Musveni, FDC’s Kizza Besigye, who has for long been the face of the opposition, is under pressure to resign from the leadership of his party. Moses Mulondo looks at the various contenders.

Makerere University senior political science lecturer Dr. Aaron Mukwaya proposes that all the opposition politicians who contested in recent (2011) presidential elections should step down and organise fresh elections within their parties to give way to new leaders to emerge.

“It is becoming a trend the world over that when you lose a presidential contest you immediately resign and give way for others to re-profile the party and give it a new momentum. That is why I think FDC’s Kizza Besigye, UPC’s Olara Otunnu, DP’s Norbert Mao, and all the others who contested should immediately step down and give way to others. They should not wait for their terms to end,” he argued.

The Makerere researcher said politicians who lose and fail to step down for others minimise the chances of their successors having ample time in building their political capital.

“I am shocked that most opposition leaders are not thinking of stepping down soon. I had Besigye say that he has to complete his term. Our politicians should stop looking at politics as a career. Politics is a temporary cause. No matter what percentage you may have got in the poll, once you have lost, the wisest immediate step is for you is to step down,” Mukwaya elaborated.

Former FDC deputy chief mobiliser John Kikonyogo is also among those who think it would do FDC and the opposition in general lots of good if Besigye steps down immediately.

“After losing the presidential contest three times, people cannot have any more hope in you. Let Besigye set an example for others to follow. The prominence of a political struggle is not about an individual but the response of the public to it. Another leader will naturally emerge if Besigye moves out of the way,” Kikonyogo told Sunday Vision.

Since 2001 when Kampala mayor Haji Nasser Ntege Sebaggala’s supporters went around singing: “Haji alagidde tuwe Besigye obululu (Haji Sebaggala has asked us to vote for Besigye)”, retired Colonel Dr. Warren Kizza Besigye Kifefe has been thrice the embodiment of Uganda’s opposition groups craving for a change of government.

Though the FDC constitution does not allow Besigye to seek re-election as the party leader when his current term ends in 2014, the same constitution does not stop him from standing again for the presidency in 2016.

Even in 2006 and 2011 when UPC and DP fronted their own presidential candidates, sections of their membership threw their weight behind Besigye to champion the opposition’s quest for power.

But the general feeling both within FDC and other opposition groups seems to be that now is the time for the retired colonel to retire from elective politics for good.

Most of the opposition parties are currently holding consultative meetings on why they performed poorly in the 2011 general elections as they undertake measures to ensure that the situation is different in the next general elections come 2016.

Since Uganda’s politics has not yet matured to the level of voting on the basis of party colours, individual credentials still have the upper hand in determining who is likely to be the next opposition presidential flag bearer.

DP’S Norbert Mao

Even when the 2011 presidential contest was going on, DP strategists were implementing plans to ensure that Mao emerges the key opposition figure between 2011 and 2016. This was even reflected in the speech Mao gave at Hotel Royale in January while he was launching his manifesto.

“A time will come and we shall ask our colleagues, ‘where were you when DP needed you most? Where were you when we were struggling to save DP from those who want to destroy it?” Mao asked.

This statement Mao made was understood to mean that the DP stalwarts like Erias Lukwago, Beti Nambooze and Dr. Lulume Bayiga who are eyeing the DP presidency would be resisted from assuming DP leadership because they abandoned the party’s presidential flag bearer and instead threw their might behind Besigye.

Contrary what had been anticipated, the dismal share (1.86%) of the vote Mao got in the contest greatly affected his chances of emerging as the next topmost opposition figure on Uganda’s political scene.

Many opposition politicians Sunday Vision talked to said Mao’s other unmaking is his diplomatic approach which many believe cannot make one a star in Uganda’s greatly militant politics.

UPC’S Olara Otunnu

Although he performed better than Miria Kalule Obote, the party’s presidential flag bearer in 2006 who got 0.9%, Otunnu’s paltry (1.6%) share of the total votes cast also demoralised many of his supporters who had thought his hostile and daring approach in attacking the NRM regime and its leaders would deliver him political capital which would eventually turn him into a highly popular politician capable of winning the presidency.

The above coupled with the mass exodus of many of the UPC’s top politicians to NRM and FDC excluded the UPC presidential flag bearer from the equation for power contest in 2011.

Many believe it would take very exceptional and highly radical actions for either Otunnu or Mao to emerge as the topmost opposition politician capable of winning the presidency in 2016.

UFA’s Beti Namisango Kamya

Known to be a superb orator, the attention-arousing campaign she put up in the previous presidential contest brought her lots of recognition across the country.

Some believe that if she can build on that capital, she could possibly emerge as an opposition figure to reckon with.

But the failure of her party to win elective position, her miserable takky of 0.66% and her endless attacks on most popular opposition party (FDC) will possibly reduce her chances of emerging as the next opposition rallying figure.

Sources within FDC indicate that Bugweri County MP Abdu Katuntu, Budadiri West MP Nandala Mafabi and Gen. Mugisha Muntu are the leading contenders in the party’s succession battle.

Abdu Katuntu

Currently calling himself the ‘the lion of Bugweri’ after trouncing internal affairs minister Kirunda Kivejinja, Katuntu, a lawyer by profession, is arguably one of the opposition stars to watch.

Katuntu is known to be a good orator and creative politician who calculates every step his takes in politics. It is on basis of that persona that he boldly called his boss Dr. Kizza Besigye to order when he debunked his unfeasible approach of overthrowing the NRM government through protests, a move which has changed the course of direction within the party.

Had it not been for Besigye’s intervention in persuading Sam Njuba (who has since retired from elective politics) into contesting for the post of FDC chairman for purposes of regional balance, Katuntu would now be occupying the number two position in the FDC hierachy.

Gen. Mugisha Muntu

His achievement of having been the longest serving army commander gives him significant political capital in Uganda’s politics where militarism is still a dominant force of influence

He boldly challenged Dr. Kizza Besigye in the previous contest for party leader and presidential flag bearer.

Muntu, who is currently a legislator in the East African Assembly, stands the chance of emerging the next opposition face.

There is, however, a feeling within a section of the FDC leaders that the next party president should not come from the west just like Besigye is. This and the fact that the FDC has since 2006 performed worst in western Uganda reduces Muntu’s chances of succeeding Besigye and eventually emerge as national opposition figure.

Nandala Mafabi

Nandala Mafabi is equally one of the emerging stars on Uganda’s political scene.

The revolution he has caused as the leader of Bugisu Co-operative Union, his exceptional performance as the chairman of Public Accounts Committee which has put him at the forefront of fighting the misuse and swindling of Uganda’s public funds, and his recent militant approach that earned him victory over minister for presidency Beatrice Wabudeya in the Budadiri West parliamentary contest which was characterised by gunfire, have earned him enviable fame which he can capitalise on to emerge as the next face of the opposition.

AllAfrica – All the Time