Africa: 2012 AFCON – Egypt, Cameroon Tickets Under Threat?

Daily Independent (Lagos)

1 April 2011

analysis

Last weekend the third round qualification matches for the 2012 African Cup of Nations held across the continent with three-time defending champions and seven-time record winners, Egypt at the verge of not qualifying for the competition.

It is not only Egypt’s qualification that is seriously under threat, other dominant nations in African football, Cameroon, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, Mali, Tunisia are also not quite comfortable in their various groups. These countries, though some of them won to brighten their qualification, e.g, Nigerian spanking Ethiopia 4-0, have all looked less than convincing in the qualifiers to date, and all are in serious danger of not qualifying for the tournament.

A cursory glance at the qualification groups makes you wonder whether there is a growing shift in power in African football.

Some less familiar names are Botswana, Malawi, Cape Verde, Niger, Sudan, Uganda, with a very real chance of making the 2012 finals, and we might have a very ‘different’ field. In fact, Botswana has qualified for the tournament, after notching up 16 points.

Of those teams, Sudan and Uganda have been to the finals before, but Sudan has qualified only once since 1976 and Uganda none.

The group stages still have to play themselves out as we are only at the halfway point in most and so much can change between now and the end of the qualifiers in October.

Of the struggling giants, Cameroon and Egypt’s positions are most precarious. Egypt trails South Africa by six points in their pool, having managed just a single point in its first three games.

Cameroon has been slightly unlucky in being pooled with Senegal, a side on the rise, and the Indomitable Lions now trail their West African rivals by five points in their group.

It seems unlikely that Egypt or Cameroon will make the 2012 finals, bringing to an end Egypt’s run of three successive victories in the competition. The Pharaohs have appeared in every tournament since 1982.

Cameroon has missed just one final since 1980 (in 1994) and with its array of stars, it would seem inconceivable that they would not make it, especially as they have brought in the experienced Spaniard, Javier Clemente as their new coach.

One of Algeria and Morocco will likely fall by the wayside as they are in the same pool and for both to qualify, the second-placed team would need to finish amongst the best of the runners-up and that seems unlikely with their points haul of just four in three matches.

Guinea is giving Nigeria a tough fight in their group. Nigeria with six points trails Guinea with a point and must win its remaining three group matches to ensure its qualification. While Nigeria still has two away matches to play, Guinea has two home games with its only away match against Nigeria.

Tunisia, like Malawi and Mali, must overcome a vastly improved Cape Verde side to qualify for the Nations’ Cup.

There will be some big casualties in this year’s qualifying, but whether it represents a permanent ‘changing of the guard’ in Africa remains to be seen. But the emergence of new sides as powerhouses should be welcomed, as it can only strengthen the African game long-term.

AllAfrica – All the Time