April polls: Star spots to watch

‘Nigeria is on the march again!’ This was a popular jingle crafted by the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) as it prosecuted the June 12, 1993, presidential election generally believed to have been won by its flag-bearer, the late Chief MKO Abiola.

Today, that jingle still holds true. In seven days’ time and in subsequent three weeks, Nigerians will be deciding the fate of all those who have been jostling to represent them in one capacity or another across the country.

According to the order of elections released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Nigerians will on Saturday, April 2, choose those who, post May 29, qualify to be active senators or members of the House of Representatives. It would be the first leg of the tri-legged polls during the April general elections.

Apart from the presidential election that would hold on April 9, there are, however, certain elections which are comparable to what football commentators and analysts would like to call ‘star matches’. And these star elections are to be found across all the geopolitical zones in the country.

Attention, for instance, would be on how Dame Pauline Tallen would try to upstage her boss, Jonah Jang as Governor of Plateau State. In Kwara State, attention would be on how the father versus son political tango would be resolved. In Benue State, precisely, Benue South Senatorial District, attention would be on which of the two Generals, – Senator (Brig. Gen) David Mark or Gen. Lawrence Onoja, will carry the day next Saturday.

In Anambra State, particularly, Anambra Central Senatorial District where three gladiators of repute would be slugging it out next Saturday, people are eager to see who comes out successful. In Oyo State, people are waiting to see how Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala would break the fabled jinx about being governor of the Pace Setting state for the second time. People would be interested in what becomes of his predecessor’s effort to wrest power from him.

In Ogun State, Nigerians would be keenly watching to see how the political hoopla between Governor Gbenga Daniel faction of the PDP that has now moved out of it to the People Party of Nigeria (PPN), would be able to assert its acclaimed popularity over Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s faction led by Gen. Tunji Olurin in all the elections to be held in the state.

In Imo State, the incumbent governor, Ikedi Ohakim, is up against very formidable opponents. The world is waiting to see who will emerge as the governor of the Heartland State on April 16, where three political juggernauts are at the starting block and the race promises to be very dicey just as it would be interesting.

In all, one can only say that the stage is set for the ‘mother of all electoral contests’ in all these identified areas as the much awaited April elections begin next week.

Imo: A parade of ‘real men’

Imo gubernatorial election qualifies in every sense of the word to be called a ‘star election’. Here, real men are on parade. And the state has several groups or political camps that are rallying supporters for their preferred candidates. The three major contenders are the incumbent, Chief Ikedi Ohakim of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, who could be described as a victim of institutional conspiracy in 2007, now on the platform of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN); and renowned philanthropist and former presidential aspirant, Owelle Rochas Okorocha running on the platform of the All Progressive grand Alliance (APGA). These are men in their own right, having political clout and formidable political parties or platforms.

One of these three men will have to rule the state for the next four years and the contest, by way of analogy, can be likened to a game where three bulls have been prepared to drink from just one trough. It, certainly, will be preposterous to write it off as a no-contest.

Governor Ohakim has been brandishing his ‘achievements’ on the general platform of the vision of ‘A new face of Imo’, espousing a new doctrine of Clean and Green as his unique selling point since he came into the office four years ago. Besides, his party, PDP, has ruled the state since 1999 when the country returned to the path of civil rule. The immediate effect of this is that PDP has well established structures and machinery that could win election any day any time. But today, Ohakim and the PDP will have to outdo well established individuals with large following, if not intimidating loyalists, to win election.

Interestingly, the opposition of today was part and parcel of the seemingly indivisible one-happy-PDP family of yesterday in the state. They left for one reason or another with the aim of seeking to actualise their political ambition on a different political platform ostensibly because of what has been described as ‘injustice and lack of internal democracy’.

Araraume, before he defected to the ACN, made some concerted efforts to get the PDP’s nomination for the gubernatorial ticket but was unsuccessful. Senator Araraume who is from Okigwe zone and more or less the same place with Ohakim has since changed the political equation in the state. He is reputed to be the political ‘godfather’ or ‘the leader’ in the zone before 2007 when he lost the race in a very controversial manner.

In fact, he did not lose it. The PDP, acting according to the whims and caprices of very few elements, decided not to obey a Supreme Court ruling. The party simply decided not to field a candidate for governorship in the state in 2007 as its own way of obeying a Supreme Court judgment which affirmed Araraume as the candidate of the party.

Those who are in the know say the combined forces of Senator Araraume and Chief Achike Udenwa, the former governor of the state, is a formidable challenge for Ohakim this time around.

As for Owelle Rochas Okorocha , he was there as a governorship aspirant in 1999 under PDP, but pulled out at the last moment and the position was handed over to Achike Udenwa. Rochas was rewarded with the position of Board Chairman of the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). In 2003, Rochas aspired to be president on the platform of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). He later withdrew from the presidential race.

In 2007, he once again aspired to be president on the platform of the PDP. But he lost to the late Umaru Yar’Adua. Today, Rochas as APGA candidate in Imo, enjoys the backing of the legendary Ikemba Nnewi, Odumegu Ojukwu, the acclaimed leader of the Igbo. Those who are apostles of zoning hold that it is not yet the turn of his Orlu zone to produce the governor. Yet, his sheer popularity, his philanthropic exploits and the backing of the living legend are factors said to be working well for him.

Nigerians are eagerly waiting to see who emerges from this ‘cage fight’.

Ogun: A test of strength, popularity

The Gateway, as Ogun State is popularly called, is certain to provide a must-watch scene for analysts and interested observers. The elections here promise to provide ample opportunity to test political strength and popularity among people who could be described as one time inseparable allies under the PDP umbrella but have now turned irreconcilable foes.

Nigerians cannot wait to see how former President Olusegun Obasanjo, whose candidate, Gen. Tunji Olurin, is flying the flag of the PDP at the gubernatorial election would out do Alhaji Gboyega Isiaka, the candidate of Governor Gbenga Daniel. By implication, then, the battle line is drawn between former President Obasanjo and the outgoing Governor Daniel, following their endorsement of different governorship candidates from the same Ogun West Senatorial District.

During the primaries in December, two parallel primaries held and each group forwarded the list of those candidates to the INEC. But the Obasanjo group went to court to stop the electoral umpire from accepting the list by the Daniel group.

After the ruling, which left the Daniel group distraught, the group decided to move emmasse into another platform, the PPN. A once united house will now have to face the electorate as different and opposing groups. On Thursday, Daniel reiterated his readiness to face the Obasanjo faction in the election.

What will make it very interesting is the fact that all the offices available would be contested by the two factions and while one will be relying on the strength, popularity and connections of a former president and chairman, Board of Trustees of the PDP, the other will be banking on the strength, popularity and connections of an incumbent governor.

The two camps have been literally on the neck of each other. While Olurin is accusing the Daniel camp of mismanaging the resources of the state and threatening to drag him before anti-corruption agencies, Isiaka is insisting that the Obasanjo group is populated by men who have no electoral value.

He stated on a television programme on Thursday morning that the group could not afford to apply the ‘Rotimi Amaechi option’ by leaving the Obasanjo group to go ahead win the elections and they will get the court to strip them ala the Amaechi formula, because they are individuals who can never win any electoral contest.

He stated that the April election has provided an ample opportunity for the two groups to ‘test strength, popularity and acceptability among the people of Ogun State’.

Nigerians may not have to wait for too long to know the strength of both sides. By next Saturday, the National Assembly election will point to the direction of the group with the upper hand.

In all this, ACN candidate Senator Ibikunle Amosun is watching and building a formidable force, ready to cash in on the titanic battle. So, the scenario is a very interesting one.

Oyo: Akala’s race against a jinx

In neighbouring Oyo State, a titanic contest to break the famous jinx associated with governing Oyo State is in top gear and should provide another exciting setting for Nigerians. Incumbent, Adebayo Alao-Akala is up against his former boss, Senator Rashidi Ladoja. The two of them were in 2003 sworn in as deputy and governor of the state respectively. But following the wrongful impeachment of Ladoja in 2006, Akala moved to entrench himself as the defacto governor of the state.

Even when the courts had reversed the impeachment, it became apparent that the man from Ogbomoso was no longer contented with playing the second fiddle after spending 11 months as the ‘main man’. In 2007, he emerged the candidate of the PDP and subsequently won the governorship election in very controversial circumstances.

Ladoja’s effort to get the ticket this time around on the platform of the PDP proved futile, and he stormed out, moving on to the Accord Party. Now both men must clash to settle, once and for all, the question of who is the more politically sagacious, more connected and more acceptable by the people of the state.

Apart from the dramatis personae in the ensuing political drama, there is another reason, considered as a major one and this borders on myths and legends. Since the state was created on February 3, 1976 by the Murtala Mohammed administration, no man has ruled it twice. Many are simply waiting to see whether the jinx would be broken or not. It is often said in the state capital, with some air of pride that: “Ibadan o ki nsin eeyan leemeji,” literally meaning : “Ibadan never serves the same man twice.”

And there is a list of past former governors to prove that much. After Chief Bola Ige’s 1979-83 tenure, Dr. Omololu Olunloyo took over. When civilians again came to office, it was Chief Kolapo Ishola’s turn. Alhaji Lam Adesina and Senator Rashidi Ladoja, too, are living examples of the “single term syndrome”.

With the exception of Dr. Olunloyo and Chief Ishola who did not enjoy full four year terms, the others tried, albeit unsuccessfully to retain their seats.

But Akala and his loyalists are somewhat cocksure that those days are gone and that he would break the ‘jinx’ this time around; their selling point being the governor’s “achievements”. Ironically, it is what the critics of his administration are referring to as avenues to accuse his administration of corruption.

But apart from that, many also believe that the Ibadan factor is another thing that will likely work against the governor. Ibadan, the capital of Oyo State, boasts of 11 out of the 33 local government areas. That has always brought about the notion that Ibadan is a major determinant as far as winning governorship election is concerned in Oyo State.

Again, like the Ogun scenario, ACN’s candidate, Senator Abiola Ajimobi is a strong factor, positioning himself strategically to covert the tango to an advantage.

Anambra: High octane contest

In Anambra State, there will not be governorship election for now. But the next highest elective position in the state – senatorial election – has elicited so much interest simply because of the personalities involved. And in no other place is this more pronounced than in Anambra Central Senatorial District.

The emergence of former governor of the state, Dr. Chris Ngige, as the ACN candidate automatically pitches him against former Director-General of the National Food and Drugs Administration and Control (NAFDAC) and ex-Minister of Information, Prof. Dora Akunyili of APGA. She once boasted: “I’m not worried by the emergence of anybody. Everybody is free to vie for any position. The more the merrier.”

But Ngige has also declared that he would defeat Akunyili. He said he joined the senatorial race to ensure effective and credible representation for Ndigbo and his home state. Ngige pointed out that the incumbent governor, Mr. Peter Obi and Akunyili hail from the same village in Agulu, stressing that the people of his senatorial district would not accept a situation where a governor and a senator would emerge from one village in a senatorial district made up of seven local government areas.

Then, there is also the incumbent senator from the zone, Senator Annie Okonkwo, who is contesting on the platform of the Accord Party (AP).

While Akunyili is from Agulu in Anaocha council area, Ngige hails from Alor in Idemili South and Senator Okonkwo from Ojoto, also in the same council area. Both Ngige and Okonkwo belong to the same Idemili North/South Federal Constituency.

None of the three is a push over. Ngige, as a former governor of the state, is highly loved, particularly by the people of his Idemili North and South Federal Constituency who have never stopped being grateful to a man who single-handedly transformed the entire area into a sub-urban city. In all fairness, none of the parties with deference to Ngige stands any chance in Idemili North and South where Ngige is seen as a ‘tin god’ no matter who they fielded for the election.

Although the incumbent senator, Okonkwo is from the area but he may not stand a chance in these two council areas as Ngige is in the contest. But then, we cannot entirely dismiss the power of incumbency.

Given Akunyili’s acceptance by her people, where even traditional rulers in her native Anaocha and Njikoka council areas have endorsed her, and given that these council areas are also those of the governor and the national chairman of the party, Chief Victor Umeh, it will be a fait-accompli to say that Akunyili will sweep the votes in these areas.

It is therefore going to be a big showdown between the two candidates of the ACN and APGA in Anambra Central Senatorial District on Saturday.

Plateau: All eyes on Jang, Tallen

The scenario on the Plateau is a must watch. Here, it is a contest between Governor Jonah David Jang; his deputy, Dame Pauline Tallen and one of Jang’s kinsmen, Ambassador Chris Giwa. They are flag-bearers of PDP, Labour Party (LP), ACN, respectively in the April 16 contest.

What will make it a must watch is the fact that the deputy governor, Dame Tallen, has been able to rally who is who in the state into a different platform, the LP, so as to have the opportunity to challenge the governor and the PDP. These are former governor of the state, Chief Joshua Dariye; former deputy governor, Chief Michael Botmang; former minister of External Affairs, Amb. Bagubu Hirse; former Minister of Information and Communications, Alhaji Ibrahim Dasuki Nakande and Woman Leader of the PDP, Ngo Serah Dokotri.

Then we have about six or seven former gubernatorial aspirants, including Ambassador Fidelis Tapgun; former Minister of Sports, Hon. Damishi Sango; Dr. Danladi Atu; Arc Pam Dung Gyang; Arc John Alikila and Engr. Jimmy Zintim Cheto.

All these defectors were joined by 16 members of the state House of Assembly; the deputy speaker, Alhaji Ibrahim Baba Hassan; Senator John Nanzip Shagaya; Tallen’s deputy is another Jang’s kinsman, Pam Dung Gyang. She has said she is out “to save the soul of the state by ending the cycle of violence that has bedevilled it”.

Tapgun was to underscore the seriousness of the business at hand when he said: “It does not matter who wins the party’s ticket but the most important thing is that we are united to unseat Jang,” who is to make do with what has been called the ‘remnant of the PDP family’ in the state.

ACN’s Giwa has Col. Fidelis Attahiru (rtd) as his running mate. According to him, his major agenda is to run an all-inclusive administration by not seeing himself as a governor of a particular ethnic group but of all ethnic groups in the state. The state chairman of the party, Amos Gizo, expressed happiness with the choice of Attahiru, saying that he is capable of delivering his local government given his political experience as well as military background. Giwa has since been pulling crowd, thus making the contest a three-horse race.

With formidable men behind Dame Tallen and the incumbency factor on the side of Jang and the deep pocket of Giwa to prosecute the election, the Plateau is a must watch spot for political observers and analylists.

Benue: Generals in the trenches

In Benue South Senatorial District, two Generals are in their various trenches, and the contest will show case both political wizardry which would be reinforced by military tactics, manoeuvres, and high wire strategies.

Beside these, popularity, acceptability by the people, strength of the political platform and general mindset of the people will play a major part at next Saturday’s senatorial election in this zone.

Senate President David Mark is face to face with another General, Lawrence Onoja in a titanic battle for Benue South. Politics and campaign here have been generally marked by bitterness and hot exchange of words between the two opposing camps in the run-up to the election. The battle, according to observers, has been tagged the battle of the Generals as it promises to be a pulsating contest between the two candidates. Mark is seeking his fourth term in the Senate, while Onoja believes the seat is not his (Mark’s) birthright hence, he has vowed to stop Mark even if that is the last thing he will do for Benue South people.

The two Idoma sons were members of the same political party, the PDP, until the last senatorial primaries , which saw Senator Mark emerging as the PDP candidate for the election.

Not satisfied with the outcome of the primaries, Onoja, who alleged that there was a clear manifestation of the state interference in the primaries, decided to move into a new platform, ACN, in a bid to actualise his senatorial ambition.

It would be recalled that during the 2007 senatorial race, Mark also faced a similar challenge from the duo of Onoja and Alhaji Usman Abubakar. But Mark was able to surmount the hurdles to pick the PDP senatorial ticket.

Now, the two political actors, Mark and Onoja are back again in the race to see who will represent the Benue South Senatorial District at the Upper Legislative Chamber, a development that has forced the Idoma nation into two political camps.

Mark’s camp argues that it is only with him that the creation of Apa State can ever materialise. But supporters of Onoja, who was one-time Plateau State Military Administrator, advanced various reasons why Mark should not have a fourth term in the Senate. They accused him of underdevelopment of the area, alleging that Mark was only concerned with his family.

From all indications, the Benue South Senatorial election promises to be a hot contest, with the recent defection of several political actors across the state from PDP to ACN. PDP in the state will have an Herculean task delivering the zone.

Kwara: Central vs South

No state of the federation currently provides more interesting scenario than Kwara State. And one of the major attractions has been the high drama where the state governor, Bukola Saraki, is engaged in a battle of political wits, connection and popularity with his father over the next governor of the state.

The out-going governor has publicly opposed the decision of his father, Dr. Olusola Saraki, popularly called Oloye, to impose his daughter, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, as governorship candidate of the PDP.

The younger Saraki, with evidently superior argument, believes it is improper and unhelpful to the cause of the party and family to have his own sister replace him in office. He has since assume a cult hero status for standing up to his father in the decision considered by many as most infamous.

But unfazed, the elder Saraki moved his political machinery to a little known Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN). The elder Saraki identified a lack of democracy within the state chapter of the PDP as his main reason for dropping the party. Gbemisola has since emerged the candidate of the party.

Based on the argument of zoning and rotation policy in Kwara State by the junior Saraki, Fatai Ahmed emerged as the PDP governorship candidate. He is now to face Gbemisola .

Although, both camps have said that the matter is not a personal issues between father and son, the scenario is getting interesting by the day.

Governor Saraki has been selling the candidacy of Ahmed to all the three senatorial zones, Kwara North, Central and South where Mr. Ahmed comes from.

The senior Saraki is also said to be weighing options which include a possible merger with either ACN or CPC or both. But Governor Saraki is said to be looking beyond all the hyped obstacles.

Who carries the day remains to be seen.