North-west: CPC’s comfort zone

The North-West is the zone of General Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate and leader of the Congress for Progressive Change(CPC),  but it  is ironically a largely Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) enclave as all the states but Kano,  are  being ruled   by  PDP governors. However, the Buhari hurricane of change is coming with increased velocity and in the coming election, the Kano and Bauchi upsets  of 2003 and 2007 respectively, may be re-enacted in April 2011.
From Kano to Katsina, Kebbi to Zamfara, including Sokoto and Jigawa states, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is like the proverbial Noah’s ark. The people of North-West are boarding in large numbers, rocking the boat, unsettling other parties in the zone. Earlier, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), except for Kano state, had held sway in the zone but CPC, like a raging Tsunami, is sweeping through the region. Specifically, to most people, PDP has fumbled in the last four years and this failure, the party’s hubris and cluelessness, have alienated the electorate. In addition, the zoning brouhaha, PDP’s plausible deniability and the utterances of Chief Edwin Clark, President Goodluck Jonathan’s point man, added salt to injury and the people, including PDP elements, looked elsewhere for succour.  Then General Muhammadu Buhari, CPC’s charismatic leader, galloped onto the scene with scant political baggage.

New, seemingly credible and formidable, CPC offers an alternative platform and the north-west, almost en bloc, hitched onto the party’s coat tails. However, the party revolves around Buhari and not any ideology, soap box sophistry or revolutionary fervour but the tall, fair skinned and gap toothed general inspires hope. Mass rallies, fanatical supporters as well as “Nijeriya sai Buhari”, CPC’s mantra, have electrified the entire north-west, starting from Kaduna, to Birnin Kebbi.

So far, the campaign trail has not reached Katsina and Kano states but like 2003, the Kano revolution may re-enact this time around. That year, from relative obscurity, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau emerged governor, defeating Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, the incumbent governor of Kano state. However, Shekarau and Buhari, four years later, parted ways and ANPP, their common platform, split into two, with the governor and his benefactor on opposing camps. For eight years, ANPP has been ruling Kano and PDP, in spite of it size, national spread and local presence, was in political wilderness. Kwankwaso, PDP’s flagbearer, is staging a comeback while ANPP wants to retain Kano.  CPC, on the other hand, is set to snatch the prize.  The election, from all indications, will be a three cornered fight, featuring Kwankwaso, Alhaji Sagir Takai, Shekarau’s anointed candidate and Alhaji Mohammed Abacha, CPC’s flagbearer.

Takai was commissioner for local government but politically, he was of little consequence and against all odds, Shekarau railroaded him as ANPP candidate, jettisoning Alhaji Tijani Gwarzo, the loyal, amiable and politically savvy deputy governor. Gwarzo and his supporters, for this reason, have defected to ACN where he became the flagbearer. Similarly, Abacha is the people’s choice but CPC preferred Lawal Jafaru Isa, former military administrator of Kaduna state. However, the court has restored his mandate and the young, inexperienced and rich candidate is on the campaign trail. The elite, traditional institution and business community, on the other hand, are opposed to Kwankwaso and in Kano, this troika calls the political shots. In Kano, victory seems certain for Buhari but Jonathan and Shekarau will run neck to neck.

In Katsina, Buhari’s home state, the Daura-born general will coast to victory.  Like Kano, Buhari preferred Alhaji Aminu Masari, former House speaker, to Senator Yakubu Lado but the latter’s popularity, deep pockets and grassroots support, including current travails, have made him the candidate to beat. Specifically, at the aspirants’ request, Katsina CPC tried to forge a consensus amongst Lado, Masari and Alhaji Nura Khalil but the efforts came to naught. In the end, a committee of elders voted and Lado came tops but the rest cried foul, insisting on primaries. Yet again, Lado won the election but the party sent Masari`s name to INEC.  Undaunted, the former went to court and the judgement went in his favour. From councillor, local government chairman, to House of Representatives up to the senate, Lado’s winning streak is not waning.

Rough and ready, Alhaji Sule Lamido is the lord of the Jigawa manor but his open boasts, swimming against the tide and cantankerous nature has put him on the spot recently. In service delivery, infrastructural development and other dividends of democracy, Lamido has transformed Jigawa but his gung-ho politics has made him unpopular lately. Expectedly, this has impinged on PDP and President Jonathan, just as CPC’s popularity is soaring. Lamido and Admiral Murtala Nyako, the Adamawa state governor, caught their people`s flak for voting against Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the northern consensus candidate, at the PDP primaries. At Hadeija, the Jigawa governor was pelted with stones last month.

Recently, over a facebook post, Lamido dragged  Muktar Aminu to court, claiming defamation but the governor’s  action proved politically disastrous. The opposition seized upon that, rallied against Lamido and cried more than the bereaved and in the end, the governor withdrew the charges but the damage had been done. However, in spite of all these,   Farouk Adamu Aliyu, the CPC candidate, will not unseat his cousin in the governorship race but Buhari will floor Jonathan.

In Kebbi, the die is loaded against Alhaji Saidu Dakingari, the handsome state governor as the CPC has gathered momentum. Prudent, self effacing but effective, the governor allegedly runs a one man show, with no lieutenants or point men. However, across the state, he has executed some projects, initiated some and many are under construction but PDP is not as organised as CPC. In Zuru, General Ishaya Bamaiyi, former Army Chief and Alhaji Sadiq Yelwa, ex-works commissioner,  hold Kebbi South  for the party. Hassan and Hussaini Kangiwa, the identical twins, as well as Senator Umar Abubakar, Tafidan Kebbi, are CPC’s arrow heads in Kebbi North while Alhaji Abubakar Malam, the governorship candidate, holds sway at the central senatorial district. Senator Adamu Aleiro, former FCT minister and Dakingari’s predecessor, is the godfather of CPC in Kebbi State and pint sized ex-governor wants to remove the incumbent, his beneficiary four years ago. CPC, as things stand, is more popular than PDP in Kebbi but whether it can unseat Dakingari, is difficult to predict but Buhari will dust Jonathan in a free and fair election.

Young, educated and from the private sector, Alhaji Muktar Lugga is the CPC candidate in Zamfara state but essentially, the budding politician is a technocrat. In Zamfara, ANPP is the rave of the moment and Senator Ahmed Sani, Governor Mahmud Shinkafi’s predecessor, is the party’s fulcrum. Ironically, Shinkafi was Senator Sani’s deputy and the later, against all odds, supported him to become governor but the duo, in no time, parted way and ANPP became too hot for Shnkafi and his supporters. The governor defected to PDP, where Alhaji Namadi Ango’s faction locked horns with Shinkafi over a supremacy battle. The court, late last year, recognised the governor’s faction but Shinkafi, in spite of this victory, has not delivered enough dividends of democracy. Incidentally, he started very well, guarding the treasury and initiating projects, but along the way, the governor allegedly lost bearing. Unlike Yarima, he doesn’t share money but projects are allegedly not being executed. The people, in the last two years, are yearning for the Yarima days and Alhaji Abdulazeez Yari, the ANPP candidate, is seen as the successor of that era.

Tough and thuggish, the ANPP candidate spares no punches and Lugga as well as Shinkafi, are no match to the House of Representatives member. However, in spite of CPC’s weakness, the presidential race will be a different ball game. Most people, according to reports, will vote for Buhari across party lines and it is doubtful if Jonathan, the PDP candidate, will get one third of the votes. Interestingly, Niger, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kano and Zamfara states, in the presidential primaries, voted for Atiku last January.  The same scenario will play out in Sokoto state, where the CPC is not formidable but Buhari will defeat Jonathan.

In Kaduna,   tribe and religion, more than political parties, will define the gubernatorial race which may likely end in a runoff. The state, according to INEC figures, has 3,905,387 registered voters and the central zone has the highest number of 1,663,887.  On the other hand, zones I and III, the southern part of the state, have 1,291,702 and 918,274 voters respectively. From projections, Saeed will get only seven local governments as he will slug it out with Alhaji Sani Shaaban, the ACN candidate, Senator Ahmed Aruwa of ANPP and Alhaji Balarabe Musa, the PRP flag bearer, in his  zone I political constituency. However, in the coming election, Saeed will have the highest votes but not the required spread. Yakowa, on the other hand, will win 16 local governments, get the required spread of   25% in 23 local governments, but will trail behind Saeed in votes tally. Almost always, Zaria, Sabon Gari as well as Kaduna North and South local governments, including Igabi vote the opposition and their total registered voters, from INEC figures, is 1,570,539 million, about 652,265 voters higher than southern Kaduna’s 918,274.

The north-west, barring any upset, is CPC’s comfort zone and the people, across party lines, are yearning for change and Buhari embodies a break from the present.

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