No-fly zone is being enforced but what is the endgame for Libya?

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    What is Obama’s endgame in Libya

    STORY HIGHLIGHTS

    • Questions being asked as to what will emerge from bombardment
    • Analyst says Gadhafi will fight on and allies’ campaign could be prolonged
    • But much depends on resistance to his regime being sustained, unity of international community

    (CNN) — As coalition forces continue to attack Libya and impose a no-fly zone, Moammar Gadhafi’s regime is under the greatest pressure it has faced in its 42-year reign.

    But questions are being asked as to what will emerge from the bombardment. Will Gadhafi survive and if so what will his next move be?

    What happens if he is toppled or even killed and who would run the country? Can Libya ever enjoy peace and prosperity or is it set to be ravaged by a long and bloody civil war? CNN spoke to some experts to hear what they think the endgame could be. What follows are some of their thoughts.

    Prolonged civil war likely

    Fawaz Gerges, professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said he expected the conflict to drag on.

    “Libya’s political landscape is uncertain but I think that Gadhafi will fight on and on and this could be very prolonged.

    “It could also see Libya become extremely divided with maybe Gadhafi continuing to rule one half of the country and the other half being ruled separately.

    “This would likely create a prolonged civil war. I think Gadhafi will hang on — he has very little choice anyway as there is nowhere for him to go, he has been backed into a corner by the coalition. We must remember that there were no-fly zones imposed on Iraq in 1991 and 1993 and still Saddam Hussein remained in power.

    “I think the result of military action will be a very fractious Libya. Military action could also turn public opinion within Libya once they begin to see casualties from air strikes. This could strengthen Gadhafi rather than weaken him.

    “Even if we were to see Gadhafi killed, this would create a political vacuum which could see a long civil war which the West would have to take sides on.

    “We don’t know how divided Libya is; we don’t know the strength of feeling for regime change. There is also a sense of increasing anxiety in the Arab League.

    “I think Gadhafi will hold on for a long time. We also have to consider the wider implications for the whole of the Middle East. This could cause further instability throughout the Middle East and not just Libya.”

    Libya could have great future…

    Marco Vicenzino, chief strategy adviser at the Afghanistan World Foundation, said the future for Libya could be bright if its wealth was fairly distributed.

    “What happens next very much depends on whether Gadhafi survives or how long he fights to survive and that could be a long time.

    “It depends on the resistance to his regime being sustained and the unity of the international community.

    “If Gadhafi is defeated we would then see the transition of power to new players on the Libyan political scene made up of lawyers and the middle classes. The advantage that Libya has is its financial and human resources.

    “Libya is not starting from a bleak starting point. It has money to create a strong and viable economy and to unite people and ensure they all have their basic needs. Libya has only 6.5 million people and billions of dollars in reserve.

    “There is a lot of talent in Libya with excellent technocratic skills. That is not to say it won’t be difficult and take time — the scars of four decades of oppression won’t disappear overnight.

    “And Gadhafi will not go without a fight and it could be a protracted fight. However, Libya could have a great future providing money and power are distributed properly.”

    Gaps in knowledge, but difficult days ahead

    Richard Dalton, Professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at the London School of Economics, said we really have no idea what is happening on the ground.

    “We don’t know what the actual balance of forces is. Is the government now very stretched or is it comfortable as to numbers of men, equipment and morale?

    “The same gaps in knowledge about military resources hang over international understanding of the opposition.

    “Have the military units that went to them in the East with General Abdul Fattah Yunis been in battle? Where are they deployed?

    “Is there any kind of organized defense of Benghazi, or is it just a self-generated, self-deployed force?

    “Difficult decisions for Libyans lie ahead: between peace and resistance, accountability for the regime and its negotiated departure.

    “They will need all the support they can get through collective political action by the U.N. family and regional organizations.”


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    No-fly zone is being enforced but what is the endgame for Libya?