The bumpy road back to Senate

By the time the current Senate reconvenes on April 19 for the final phase of its tenure, the hurly burly must have been done. Losers and winners of the April elections would have already emerged. By that time, every senator must have already known whether they would retain a seat in the Red Chamber or watch the show from their homes.

More than ever before, election to the Senate has gained more prominence with hundreds of political heavyweights seeking to become members of the upper chamber of the National Assembly. There is no doubt that it is going to be a tough contest for the 109 senatorial seats in the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

There are few senators who, like Oliver Twist, are asking for more after spending between two to three terms in the Senate. Some have been in the chamber since the birth of the present dispensation in 1999. In that class are the likes of Senators David Mark (Benue South), Gbenga Ogunniya (Ondo), Nuhu Aliyu (Niger North) and Simeon Ajibola (Kwara South). All have tickets to run on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) for a record fourth term in the Senate.

Beginning with the presiding officer, Senator Mark; not until few weeks ago, the retired general seems to be riding on a roller coaster to another term in the Senate. He had earlier dismantled his major challenger, retired General Lawrence Onoja, at the PDP primaries. But Onoja revived his aspiration when he moved to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and now, with the help of another of Mark’s great opponent, Alhaji Abubakar Usman, popularly called Young Alhaji, the battle for Benue South has just begun.

Mark has a long list of achievements and a promise to help create Apa State for the Idoma people while his opponents have a long list of what he failed to do. There are indications that the forces that fought the Senate President during the 2007 election are re-grouping for another show down. Mark’s victory at the polls will certainly not come easy, as fillers from the zone indicate that Onoja is also making in-roads with “the broom revolution” in the area. Onoja was recently attacked by thugs at Otukpo Icho, believed to be Mark’s stronghold. In retaliation, Mark faced gun shots attack by thugs on the way to Igumale. It is a battle of the generals.

Still in Benue State, two serving senators representing the Tiv area had to dump the PDP for the ACN. Senators George Akume and Joseph Akaargerger are now the driving force of the ACN in the state. They face a formidable opposition from experienced PDP candidates in Barnabas Gemade and Rep Terngu Tsegba. Reports from the state indicate that the broom revolution is making waves in Tiv land, making the return of Akume and Akaargerger to the Senate a possibility.

Senators from the other North-central states are also faced by political intrigues that may shape the outcomes of the April polls. All three senators from Niger State (Nuhu Aliyu, Dahiru Kuta and Zainab Kure) got their return tickets and were having a smooth ride until the Minna presidential campaign rally of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC); now they face the risk of a hard opposition. Same goes for Nasarawa State where Senator Patricia Akwashiki is to contest against her former political leader, Solomon Ewuga, who is running on the platform of the CPC. There are indications that CPC could reap bountifully from the two states of Niger and Nasarawa states in terms of representation in the Senate.

In Kogi State, the frosty relationship between Senator Smart Adeyemi and Governor Ibrahim Idris could halt the senator’s second term bid. Adeyemi secured the PDP nomination after a high level arm-twisting saw the national headquarters of the party sidelining the state executive committee in favour of the candidate. Senator Nicholas Ugbane from Kogi East has already lost out while Salihu Otaru Ohize has returned to the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to run in Kogi Central.

In the Northeast zone, all six senators from Taraba and Adamawa states face the possibilities of never making it back. Governor Danbaba Suntai ensured that all three senators from his state did not get return tickets of the PDP. In Adamawa State, Senator Jibril Aminu was schemed out, forcing the former ‘link man’ of PDP to opt out of the primaries. For senators Grace Bent and Mohammed Mana, their ambitions to return faced a stiff obstacle from Governor Murtala Nyako. The duo recently got court orders returning them to the list of candidates, but Nyako has vowed to scuttle their bids.

In Borno State, Senator Omar Hambagda is likely to kiss the dust against a more formidable challenger in the person of Rep Mohammed Ali Ndume. A voter from Borno South told this reporter that the people of the area have not felt the impact of Hambagda’s representation and are even yet to forgive him for supporting the third term agenda of former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2006.

The North-west geopolitical zone is the most unpredictable zone in the country in terms of the National Assembly election. There is no doubt that the CPC draws its core support from the zone. Former governors-turned-senators from the zone are facing a battle for political survival. In Kebbi State, former Governor Adamu Aliero plans to return to the Senate on the platform of CPC against all odds placed on his path by his successor, Governor Saidu Dakingari. In Jigawa State, former governor, Senator Saminu Turaki, faces the battle of his life as his successor, Governor Sule Lamido, is bent on ensuring a final nail is put on his political coffin. Turaki is now flying the flag of a relatively new ACN in the state, making his task quite difficult.

Senator Ahmed Sani Yerima may have large supporters in Zamfara State but his party, the ANPP, is out of power. Governor Mahmuda Aliyu Shinkafi will leave nothing to chance in his bid to conquer the Yerima political enclave which is a major force in the coming election. Yerima has a strong followership in Zamfara which he governed for eight years and observers say, even if his party fails to unseat the PDP in April, the former governor may retain his Senate seat. He also faces a familiar foe in Mallam Yahaya Abdulkarim, former governor of old Sokoto State, whom he had defeated in previous encounters. In Sokoto East zone, Senator Abubakar Umar Gada is still struggling to grab the PDP ticket which he got through a court order after losing in the primary election. There are indications that the senator is up against formidable adversaries bent on sacking him after the election. The fortunes of senators from Katsina, Kaduna and Kano will be determined by how well the CPC does in the elections. Most senators from the states could be swept away by the ‘Buhari whirl wind’ that may blow strongly in the zone.

More than any other zone, serving senators from the South-west zone may suffer heavier causalities. Senator Hosea Ehinlanwo had to sign up for three parties within the spate of a week to get a ticket to run. The old man lost a bid to run for PDP, then jumped to the ACN and lost and finally got a ticket to contest on the platform of the CPC. The sky blue party may be popular else where but hardly in Ondo State. In Osun State, it is going to be a tall order for Senator Iyiola Omisore to survive, with Governor Rauf Aregbesola bent on ensuring his exit from the Senate. Osun is now controlled by the ACN and—coupled with the broom revolution in the zone—that will play a great role in determining whether or not Omisore, and indeed all the PDP senators from Southwest, will return.  Of all the Odua states, Ogun and Oyo are the only PDP states and they have emerged as most controversial. Senate Leader Teslim Folarin is already out of the race as he was thrown into jail as murder suspect at the time the party primary was conducted. In Ogun State, only Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello managed to grab a ticket through court ruling. However, she still faces a daunting task as Governor Gbenga Daniel is still smarting from his defeat at the courts and may resort to anti-party activities to ensure that he defeats the Obasanjo group in the state.

In the South-eastern state of Enugu, Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu and Senator Ayogu Eze had it rough in the hands of former PDP national chairman, Okwesilieze Nwodo. After scaling that hurdle, the two senators are having hard times with the candidates of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) which has suddenly become the main opposition in the state. Ayogu, who is the Senate spokesman, is said to be facing stiffer challenge and this has become apparent as reports say he hardly ventures out of his zone lately. In Imo State, all three senators are likely to be out, though they continue to struggle for a return. Osita Izunaso is in court against his former political leader, Hope Uzodinma, for the PDP ticket. Senator Chris Anyanwu, having been schemed out of the PDP, is now a candidate of APGA while Senator Sylvester Anyanwu has also lost out of the PDP.

There was a dirty fight for PDP tickets in Anambra State. At the end, Senator Annie Okonkwo has decamped to the Accord Party to test his popularity in the Anambra South together with Senator Ikechukwu Obiorah who is contesting in Anambra Central. The South-east is however open to all the candidates as there is no single formidable party or opposition party in the zone as at the moment. Voting in the zone is likely to be based on individual candidates’ popularity rather than the influence of any political party.

The South-south zone is where the PDP hopes to have bountiful harvest of senators. This is basically due to President Goodluck Jonathan’s candidacy and power of incumbency in all but one state in the zone. The contest in the ACN-controlled Edo State promises to increase the number of representation in the Senate for the ACN. Investigations have revealed that the people of the state are yearning for a more radical representation in the Senate after having a largely quite time in the last four years. The most vocal of the three serving senators from Edo State is Ehigie Edobor Uzamere who is now running on the platform of the ACN for Edo Central. Both Senators Odion Ugbesia and Yisa Braimoh of the PDP have allegedly made little impact in the last four years and this could determine how the people vote on April 2.

In other South-south states, the PDP has already schemed out those that are not coming back. From Bayelsa East, Senator Nimi Barigha Amange is out, in Rivers State, the PDP has blocked Senator Lee Maeba, in Akwa Ibom, Senators Bob Effiong and Eme Ekaette have been defeated in the primaries, and in neighbouring Cross River State, Senators Bassey Ewa Henshaw and Greg Ngaji are also not returning. From Delta State, Senator Patrick Osakwe is not coming back while Senator Adego Eferakeya has dumped the PDP and secured ACN ticket.

From all the configurations, one remarkable scenario is emerging: the April election is likely to create a more democratic Senate where no single party could make up two-thirds of members required to take decisions on critical issues. At present, the PDP has overwhelming majority in the Senate that can sit and take important decisions even without the participation of a single member of the opposition. By implication, the current Senate is a virtually one-party Senate. The next Senate is almost certain to be different.

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