Okotie’s two-way presidential race

April 9, 2011 is another historic day most Nigerians look forward to because it is the D-day of the presidential election, and the decision taken by anxious voters would determine who occupies the coveted Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja, for the next four years.

As usual, because of the winner-takes-all style of Nigerian politics, the other offices in contention: Governorship, Senate, State and National Assemblies pale in significance because of the enormous powers that accrue to the President.

Certainly, only the President, with his vast executive powers, can effect direct, salutary changes in the life of the nation, within the shortest possible time.

The April 9 race is unique and interesting because two of the candidates, a Northerner, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and a South-Southerner, Rev Chris Okotie of the Fresh Democratic Party (FRESH), would be running for the third time in a row. Prof. Pat Utomi, Mrs Sarah Jubril are some of the also ran.

Like the other candidates, Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), among others, the two veterans, (Okotie and Buhari), face a daunting challenge from the incumbent, Dr Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP, who emerged as his party’s candidate after a bitter contest with the party’s powerful northern caucus.

But our concern here is how Rev. Okotie and his backers would confront their adversaries in what may turn out to be the most closely fought electoral battle in the country’s checkered history.

Okotie, now acknowledged as a veteran of political battles, won public sympathy because of the way he boldly weathered every opposition to quickly emerge the presidential candidate of the Justice Party (JP) in 2003, following the misadventure of the National Democratic Party (NDP).

When it became necessary, he again did what was expedient; walked a tight rope to float his own party, FRESH in 2006. But now, he must know that his hands are full in this 2011 elections.

Although, Okotie is running against his kinsman and incumbent, Dr Jonathan of the PDP, who does not enjoy national popularity and the advantage of a united party, he must first convince voters that he has none of the current President’s weakness and political disadvantages, if he hopes to win their support. The president was stoned by angry youths at Lafia, the Nasarawa State capital, where he launched his nationwide campaign on Monday, February 7, 2011. That’s a foretaste of what to expect as the campaigns come fully on stream.

The widely known minus points from Jonathan‘s personality includes his dour visage, lack of charisma, inability to assert leadership at crucial moments of national crises and failure to inspire confidence, even within his own party, that he can move the nation forward.

Most damaging to Jonathan’s chances is the near fatal blow he dealt PDP’s internal cohesion, when he side-stepped the party’s zoning arrangement to run in the current election, against the desire of the northern caucus which claims, rightly so, that it is the turn of the North to produce the next President since the late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s tenure was aborted by his demise after just three years in office.

With just few weeks to the presidential election, how can Jonathan heal the festering wound inflicted on a hurting North which has become thoroughly fragmented by this zoning crisis? He requires great political savvy to win over the vanquished and disgraced Northern power brokers to his side just in time, to roll over the gathering storm of formidable opposition.

In the same vein, can Okotie, sleek and intelligent as he is, sell himself quickly to Jonathan’s Northern adversaries as a viable alternative, who can be trusted to deliver if given a broad-based Northern platform?

Hear him: “I have always felt that the life of Chris Okotie is predicated on a force introduced by the Almighty God to my life. From the very beginning of my existence, there was a divine presence, motivating, inspiring and harmonising my life, even before I was born. And so, the necessary impetus was given when the time came from that transition. I look back and I see the landmarks; God helping me in those circumstances to do things you know that, ordinarily I would not have been able to contemplate and, that is why I believe that what is ahead is possible because of what I have seen in the past.”

Can Okotie prove to his teeming admirers, that he still has the same grit he brought as a neophyte in 2003, when he contended against the sharks in those heady days of Obasanjo’s do-or-die politics and survived?

That said. Okotie, who obviously is more appealing than Jonathan, as a modern President, will have to refuel his campaign machinery and redirect his salvos at the weaknesses of the President, while also presenting himself as one who has all the positives Jonathan could offer, but none of his short-comings.

Therefore, Rev Okotie’s first challenge is to win over his own kith and kin from the Niger Delta where Jonathan seem to be having major problems with some of his key associates, and forge new alliances there, to create a foothold for himself in the Niger Delta, his home base.

Okotie must be seen as the new star from the South-South, and a strong voice who could speak to the restive youths and win their loyalty.

At the same time, the irrepressible reverend must roll up his sleeves and shift his gear on high speed and head up north, where the bulk of the votes that traditionally decides the Presidency, come from.

He is faced with the herculean task of presenting himself as saleable, effective candidate to the core North, which desires to partner with new folks down South, should political expediency, via a post April 9 logjam, dictates a new power configuration at the centre, even in a caretaker arrangement, like the defunct Interim National Government (ING) under Chief Ernest Shonekan.

As it is, Okotie must know that time is a luxury in politics and should quickly deploy the last atom of his political energy to launch a last ditch effort to reassert himself and pump up his campaign.

Contrary to popular opinion, 2011 is not yet in the kitty of President Goodluck Jonathan. There are formidable opposition forces which unseen circumstances could throw up, unexpectedly at any moment.

Opposition Alliances have been known to pull the rug off the feet of winning parties and “light weight”, but unblemished, moderate candidates like Okotie do have a chance to become the pretty bride when push turns to shove.

You never can tell. In this game, Never Say Never, and like the dogged reverend once said, “It is not over until we win”. We’d wait and see.

Usman Abubakar

– Abubakar wrote from Lagos