Uganda: Understanding Museveni’s Chess Game

Photo: Le Potentiel

Rebels seize the city of Goma on the eastern border of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

With events in the eastern DRC rapidly unfolding, what will Museveni do next and why?

In the latest high-level diplomatic move surrounding the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Presidents Joseph Kabila of the DRC, Paul Kagame of Rwanda, and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda yesterday jointly demanded that the M23 rebels pull out of the recently-captured town of Goma and end their offensive.

This may seem strange given that many believe M23 is a proxy army of Rwanda and that in a leaked UN Panel of Experts report, Uganda was also accused of providing more “subtle” support to the rebels and allowing “the rebel group’s political branch to operate from within Kampala and boost its external relations”.

Both Uganda and Rwanda strenuously denied the claims and Uganda’s Army and Defence Spokesman Felix Kulaigye dismissed the report as “hogwash … a mere rumour that is being taken as a report”.

Shortly after, as if to demonstrate its deep displeasure, Ugandan officials threatened to pull out of international peace-keeping missions in Somalia, the Central African Republic (CAR), and the DRC.

However, Wendy Sherman, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, amongst others seemed to believe Uganda was calling the international community’s bluff, saying she “fully expects” Uganda to continue playing “the leadership role it has” in diplomatic and military terms.

With events unfolding quickly in the region, it may be difficult to predict Museveni’s next move and pick apart the short-term motivations behind his most recent actions, but looking at how he has operated in the region previously and the issues that take the centre ground in his foreign policy calculations may offer some insight.

Political survival

One factor that might explain Sherman’s confidence in dismissing Uganda’s threat to withdraw international peacekeepers is Washington’s history of cooperation with Museveni on security matters. Following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia earlier this year, the Ugandan president is the most powerful and significant pro-Western leader in the region remaining.

Museveni has been a long-time US ally in regional security in conflicts from Sudan to the Lord’s Resistance Army in central and east Africa to al-Shabaab in Somalia. Museveni and his military chiefs have done well from these partnerships and there are whispers suggesting the US is building a military base in Uganda’s north-eastern region of Karamoja.