<\/p>\n
Prof. Dirk Kotz\u00e9<\/p>\n
Much of the attention at the moment is on the nomination lists of South Africa\u2019s political parties. KwaZulu-Natal is the province most in the spotlight because the provincial election might develop into a five-way contest between the African National Congress (ANC), uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). <\/p>\n
The MK party is at the centre of it, not only because it is spearheaded by former President Jacob Zuma, but also because the latest opinion poll by the Brenthurst Foundation places it in a key position. The party most associated with KZN, namely the IFP, has taken a back seat. It, therefore, deserves some more consideration.<\/p>\n
In the 2019 KZN provincial election the IFP received 14.6% of the votes. Four years later, in October 2023-before the MK\u2019s arrival-the Brenthurst opinion poll recorded its provincial support to be 27%; in last month\u2019s poll, it declined to 19%. At a national level, the IFP was supported by 3.4% of voters in 2019. The October 2023 poll recorded an increase to 7% in national support but last month it decreased to 2%.<\/p>\n
Before Zuma\u2019s support for the MK party earlier this year, the Brenthurst poll suggested that the ANC\u2019s losses would go to the EFF and IFP. After the Zuma entry in the race, the opinion polls indicate that the MK party \u201cstole\u201d much of these gains from the EFF and IFP.<\/p>\n
The MK party\u2019s support is therefore coming mainly from the ANC. It leaves the ANC, IFP and DA at more or less the same level, with the MK party 5% ahead of them and the EFF about 6% behind them. It means that the Multiparty Charter (including the IFP and DA) and the MK\/EFF combination both are at 39% and the ANC at 20%.<\/p>\n
Where does it leave the IFP?<\/p>\n
These polls compete with the fact that the IFP did well in recent local by-elections. The results supported the notion that the MK party is winning support to the detriment of the EFF, but they did not support the prediction that the IFP is losing support in favour of MK. The IFP is engaged in a co-operation agreement with the DA in the province, which means that they do not compete against each other in by-elections but support one common candidate.<\/p>\n
The IFP\u2019s strengthening in KZN over the past five years or more is unexpected for many observers. It is the only major party which turned around its systematic electoral decline since 1994 into a trajectory of growth again. It happened during a time of major changes in the party, most notably introducing a new party president and the departure of its founder, Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi.<\/p>\n
The leadership transition was a protracted one, starting in 2017, when Velenkosini Hlabisa was identified as the heir apparent, and which was concluded in 2019 when he succeeded Buthelezi as IFP President. Buthelezi enjoyed an iconic status in his party and predictions were that his departure will leave the IFP in limbo. The transition was not a dramatic takeover by a new leader and, therefore, there were no public contestations in the party or infighting which would destablise it. <\/p>\n
It is supported by the fact that the IFP leadership decided that Buthelezi will be the face of the party in this election campaign.<\/p>\n
However, the party has not be free of controversies. In 2011, the National Freedom Party (NFP) was formed as a breakaway group and did relatively well in the 2014 provincial election but its support declined dramatically in 2019, to the degree that it does not pose any threat to the IFP.<\/p>\n
The NFP rebellion emphasised the IFP\u2019s image as a party of old men. In the meantime, the party has worked on a new image, which involves the IFP\u2019s Youth Brigade. One of its most prominent young leaders is the parliamentarian Mkhuleko Hlengwa, who is the party\u2019s main spokesperson and also the chairperson of the national Parliament\u2019s Standing Committee on Public Accounts (Scopa). Liezl van der Merwe is another young and active parliamentarian.<\/p>\n
The succession battles in the Zulu monarchy also negatively affected Prince Buthelezi as the traditional prime minister. But it did not involve the IFP directly, because Buthelezi was by then already retired as leader. It rather emphasised the IFP\u2019s lack of influence in matters like these, compared to the Buthelezi era when the IFP\u2019s relationship with the monarchy was at times quite intimate.<\/p>\n
The IFP\u2019s party identity is a product of its history. When it was revived in the mid-1970s, it was widely regarded as part of an ANC strategy to establish a presence in the KwaZulu homeland.<\/p>\n
In 1979, however, the two political formations parted ways and in the 1980s serious conflict between the IFP and the United Democratic Front deepened their animosity for each other.<\/p>\n
The IFP\u2019s party identity is complex because over time it developed a party programme of liberal values (federalism combined with free-market economics) combined with conservative ideals of traditionalism and Zulu identity values. With the constitutional negotiations in the 1990s, it regularly abandoned the talks and demanded official recognition of a Zulu kingdom. <\/p>\n
It also negotiated the Ingonyama Trust in 1994 as a land tenure arrangement for traditional Zulu land managed by the monarchy. Until today, the IFP maintains close ties with the Trust and claims credit that it secured the land rights of the Zulu nation.<\/p>\n
In the coming elections, the IFP will compete against 114 other parties for parliamentary seats. It will most probably be one of the top five parties, although its main drawback is that it is overwhelmingly concentrated in KZN and does not have a national footprint.<\/p>\n
*Prof. Kotz\u00e9 is from the Department of Political Sciences at Unisa <\/p>\n
The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or <\/p>\n
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