South Africa’s tourism sector is on the path to recovery, but significant challenges remain.
To drive growth and enhance competitiveness, the country must improve its air access and visa policies.
According to the Southern Africa Tourism Services Association (Satsa), while South Africa recently celebrated a milestone of 8.56 million visitors from January to October, a closer examination reveals that key international markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, continue to lag.
Current state of tourism
David Frost, CEO of Satsa, acknowledges that the sector is moving in the right direction, with overall recovery year-to-date reaching 91% of pre-pandemic levels for overseas arrivals.
However, he warns that prematurely declaring victory could obscure critical insights necessary for sustained, long-term growth.
Recent headlines have celebrated the milestone of total arrivals exceeding 2019 levels for January to October, but these topline figures can be misleading.
“Total arrivals are up 2% on pre-Covid volumes, with October alone posting a 31.5% year-on-year surge. However, these numbers are heavily influenced by regional and African land markets,” Frost explains.
When examining overseas arrivals specifically, South Africa remains 9% behind 2019 levels, with key markets such as Europe and Asia still underperforming.
Satsa emphasises the need to shift focus from short-term year-on-year spikes to more honest benchmarking against 2019 and a deeper analysis of growth sources.
Market comparisons
Satsa’s analysis highlights notable contrasts between markets that have exceeded expectations and those that continue to struggle.
The United States has reached 105.7% of its 2019 arrivals, while Australia stands at 109.4%.
In contrast, several traditionally strong European markets remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
For instance, Germany posted 126.9% quarter-on-quarter growth compared with 2024, yet year-to-date sits at only 85.1% of its 2019 volumes.
France shows a similar pattern, with 113.2% growth in Q3 year-on-year but only 80.4% of 2019 arrivals year-to-date.
“It is essential we understand this statistical context, instead of celebrating extraordinary growth off what was fundamentally a weak quarter,” Frost adds.
“Year-on-year surges can create a false sense of comfort. A strong quarter often reflects how soft the same period was the year before, and triple-digit growth does not mean a market has fully recovered when benchmarked against 2019.”
Challenges with overseas arrivals
Overseas arrivals from China also remain a concern. Between March and October, arrivals reached only 42.4% of 2019 levels, compared with 46.4% over the same period last year.
This decline persists despite the launch of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme (TTOS) in March.
The data underscores the need for more robust, targeted marketing strategies that support digital visa modernisation and improved access.
The importance of air access
According to Satsa, air connectivity is a decisive driver of recovery for the tourism sector. Brazil’s impressive recovery, from 25,672 arrivals in 2023 to 49,855 in 2024, was supported by reinstated direct flights operated by South African Airways and LATAM.
These numbers are set to be further bolstered by the introduction of the São Paulo to Cape Town route in September 2026.
The United Kingdom is also showing meaningful progress, crossing the 90% recovery threshold for overseas arrivals in 2025, with 276,944 passengers between January and September.
British Airways operated at 142% of its 2024 capacity after recovering from operational strains during the previous summer.
However, opportunities for increased capacity remain, particularly due to the absence of a direct Durban service and the lack of daily SAA flights into Johannesburg.
“It is not simply about adding more seats,” Frost states.
“It is about where those seats are placed, which markets they serve, and whether they support growth in high-yield and underperforming regions. Total capacity may be recovering, but we are still below 2019 long-haul capacity to Europe, and that has a direct impact on arrivals.”
The Middle East: an untapped market
Satsa notes that the Middle East presents another important opportunity.
Airlift into the region is already tracking at 109% of 2019 levels (two-way traffic), indicating steady demand. However, the true potential of this market is obscured because arrival data reflects the traveller’s passport nationality rather than where they are domiciled.
Many travellers residing in the Middle East travel on British or other foreign passports due to the region’s large expatriate population. When these travellers fly to South Africa, they are recorded as arrivals from the United Kingdom or Europe based on the passport they carry, rather than as arrivals from the UAE or the wider Middle East.
This discrepancy masks the actual size and value of the region as a source market and complicates accurate measurement. A more nuanced view is essential for developing the right strategies and partnerships to unlock the region’s full potential.
Visa policies and competitiveness
Visa policy continues to shape South Africa’s global competitiveness. “We have clear evidence that removing bureaucratic barriers works,” Frost notes.
“When visa restrictions for Russia were lifted in March 2017, arrivals surged by 133% year-on-year. Similar opportunities exist today.”
Mexico, long constrained by visa requirements, has been included in the first Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system following the G20 Summit.
As the system expands, meaningful growth may follow, provided ease of access is paired with targeted, market-specific engagement.
“We have made substantial gains, but the real test is whether we can translate short-term recovery into long-term competitiveness,” says Frost.
“That requires moving beyond month-to-month celebrations and asking harder questions about market mix, air capacity, visa performance, and geographic spread. The challenge now is to use this intelligence to future-proof growth so that South Africa does not simply return to its 2019 baseline, but outperforms it in a way that benefits the entire country.”
