President Donald Trump’s announcement that South Africa would not be invited to attend the G20 summit in 2026, as well as stopping payments and subsidies, is set to prove that the US has power and dominates the economy.
These are the views of political analysts and economists who said South Africa cannot afford a “stand off” with the US, which is a major lender through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and the investor through the international banks and companies such as Coca Cola.
Trump announced on Wednesday evening via his social media platform that South Africa would not receive an invitation to the 2026 G20, which is expected to be held in Miami, Florida.
He also added that the US will stop all payments and subsidies with immediate effect.
His remarks followed South Africa’s refusal to symbolically pass the G20 presidency to a senior US Embassy representative at the close of this year’s summit in Johannesburg.
He also added that the US did not attend the G20 in South Africa because the South African government refused to acknowledge or address what he called “the horrific human rights abuses” endured by Afrikaners, and other descendants of Dutch, French and German settlers.
He added that white people were killed in the country and that their farms were “randomly” taken, an allegation that South Africa has denied.
In response, President Cyril Ramaphosa, through his spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, said it is regrettable that, despite the efforts and numerous attempts by Ramaphosa and his administration to reset diplomatic relations with the US, Trump continues to impose punitive measures against South Africa based on “misinformation and distortions”.
Ramaphosa also called on members of the G20 to reaffirm its continued operation in the “spirit” of multilateralism, based on consensus, with all members participating on an equal footing in all of its structures.
Meanwhile, the South African Chamber of Commerce in the USA (SACCUSA) announced that the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired yesterday, with no definitive time frames from Congress on its renewal or South Africa’s re-inclusion.
“Expiration of AGOA is not just a procedural lapse—it is a shock to the foundation of US–South Africa trade. Our members demand decisive leadership now. A promise of extension is insufficient when jobs, investment and years of trust hang in the balance,” said President Neil Diamond.
Trump, who has been accusing South Africa of “white genocide” since he took over the office for his second term in January, froze funding from programmes such as the US Presidency’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) and USAID.
This was after South Africa opened a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in December 2024.
Trump also imposed a 30% “reciprocal” tariff on South African exports.
An independent political analyst, Mpho Maake, said this is how Trump is showing the US power and dominance, adding that South Africa’s economy is tightly closed to Western companies and cannot afford a “stand off” with the US because it is a major lender through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.
Maake added that the situation requires a change of leadership in South Africa.
“In a terrain of diplomacy, wisdom surpasses conflict and war; rather, good leaders strive for peace and solidarity with every nation at all times. As the current President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing internal revolt under immense pressure to resign, reportedly in the ANC, as tensions escalate, South Africa’s image both domestically and internationally requires a change to reposition South Africa’s diplomacy to its past glory under Nelson Mandela,” he said.
Another political analyst, Zakhlele Ndlovu, said Trump’s decision will sabotage the economy, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised to see an investment strike from the US companies. Ndlovu added that the relationship between South Africa and the US will remain strained for as long as the ANC is still in power.
“South Africa is a lightweight but acts as if it is a heavyweight. As long as the ANC remains in power, there’s no chance of reconciliation and resetting of strained relations. The ANC is punching above its weight”, said Ndlovu, adding that this shows that the governing party did not learn from the experiences of Zanu-PF and the West.
Human rights activist and a researcher at the Thabo Mbeki School of Public and International Affairs at Unisa, Advocate Sipho Mantula, said that although the situation might affect the relationship between the US and members of the G20, it tells that BRICS countries and the Global South have to rise to the occasion and take the space in the global arena and re-draw the rules of engagements.
Trump and his administration also opposed key parts of the G20 Leaders’ Declaration adopted in South Africa, leading to a US boycott of the Summit. The declaration focused on issues affecting the Global South, such as climate change, global wealth inequality, and debt relief, which the US opposed. The declaration was adopted by all other G20 members, except Argentina.
Probed whether the US will carry the declaration next year, Mantula said it would be an international suicide of diplomacy should the US ignore the 122 issues that were raised in South Africa.
An economist, George Glynos, said he sees this as more of the same and a function of South Africa’s foreign relations stance, which has tended to undermine the US’s interests.
Glynos said while South Africa pursues these positions and stands against US ideology, it cannot expect the US to simply accept all this and still hand out aid, financial assistance and preferential trade deals. He said the business community in South Africa understands this and has actively been working towards mitigating the final impact of frosty US-SA relations.
“If we are waiting for the ANC to shift its position on any of these issues before the US softens its stance, then we will be waiting a long time,’’ he said.
Another economist, Jeffrey Dinham, said South Africa could have done more to repair its relationship with the US.
Dinham added that although the US firms that see profitable opportunities in South Africa are unlikely to view this as a decisive reason to exit, however, the real risks stem from issues “we can (and should) address domestically”. This includes labour regulations, rising criminality and mafia-style activity, substantial bureaucratic obstacles, and deteriorating infrastructure.
