Climate change adaptation refers to the plans, measures and actions that we take to adapt to the impacts of a warming world. These impacts include increased drought and reduced soil moisture, extreme heat events, intensified rainfall, sea-level rise, which in turn multiply risks to food and water security, thus resulting in economic distress well suitable to ignite civil unrest arising from the scramble for shrinking resources.
Many of these impacts are already ‘baked in’ regardless of how well we mitigate by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Done well, climate adaptation can help to protect society and the economy from these impacts. If we continue to under-invest in adaptation, we will pay an increasingly high price for the unmanaged consequences.
Limited resources in an unfolding crisis
Currently there is an alarming lack of resources being dedicated to the necessary planning and implementation of adaptation measures.
Analysis shows that global climate finance increased from $653 billion in 2019 to 2020, to $1.3 trillion in the 2021 to 2022 period. But finance specifically for adaptation decreased from 7% to a paltry 5% of these totals across the periods. According to the South African government, we received $816 million in 2021 to 2022, but only $7.64m of this was for adaptation.
According to recent World Bank research, the required investment in adaptation for South Africa is calculated to be R844 billion by 2030 and R2.4 trillion by 2050, or around 1.3% of GDP.
Many of us in the developing world are counting on equitable climate finance to provide funding, which should ideally be in the form of concessional loans or grants to avoid adding to rising sovereign debt. Developed economies are responsible for the bulk of current and historical greenhouse gas emissions and therefore owe the developing world a climate debt.
Why this discrepancy between adaptation and mitigation? Firstly, adaptation is more difficult to define and track. Building climate resilience across the economy and society requires investment in a very broad range of interventions and can be difficult to separate from non-climate change related development needs. Secondly, investment in climate change mitigation measures – such as replacing fossil fuel-based energy with cleaner renewable energy – presents an obvious return on investment into technologies and construction. The return on investment for adaptation measures needs to be looked at over the longer term and measured against realistic and clearly defined costs of failing to do so. The impact on GDP of climate change damages in South Africa is conservatively estimated to be -1.3% by 2050.
Key focal areas for critical climate resilient development include the freshwater delivery system which is already undergoing severe strain as already scarce water resources diminish and will continue doing so under all climate change scenarios. The urgent building of resilience for agriculture, transport and cities has also been identified as needing urgent and substantial investment.
How do we do this?
Adaptation requires an all-of-society response. Integrated planning and resource mobilisation should meet inclusive bottom-up engagement to ensure that measures are grounded in the realities of those that they are intended to protect.
The Climate Change Act of 2024 sets out the framework of how to deal with the issues from a governance perspective. National, provincial and local government is obliged to use the best available science to assess risks and vulnerabilities and then devise and implement response plans.
All of this is complex and costly, and we need to be looking at how to progress this work, even with a shortage of committed funding at this stage. The Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) is tasked with co-ordinating the county’s climate response. The dedicated team is small, however, and works with limited budgets, Similarly, many municipalities lack technical skills and resources to undertake comprehensive.
Where must the money come from?
As our country’s G20 Presidency peaks ahead of the Leaders Summit in November, we should call for an outcome that addresses climate adaptation, focusing on strategies like developing resilient infrastructure, improving early warning systems, and promoting nature-based solutions.
As a country, we need to keep on pushing for increased and equitable finance from the developed world. A key focus is creating financing frameworks to support climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction, especially for developing countries, and empowering local governments to implement solutions.
We also need to upwardly revise our extremely low carbon tax rates on GHGs emitted, and ringfence them for use on climate resilience. The global fossil fuel industry realises profits to the tune of $2.8 billion per day, and this increasingly needs to be redirected to combatting the harms caused by these products. The clock is ticking, and unless we redefine the concept of return on investment, adaptation will continue to get the short end of the stick.
Brandon Abdinor, Senior Climate Advocacy Lawyer at the Centre for Environmental Rights and Commissioner of the Presidential Climate Commission.
*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or
BUSINESS REPORT
