In a move that could significantly reshape the South African political landscape, analysts have warned that Umkhonto Wesizwe (MK) former secretary-general Floyd Shivambu could disrupt other political parties as he embarks on a consultative process with the potential to form a new party.
The initiative, set to unfold over the coming weeks, aims to engage various political leaders, grassroots activists, and disgruntled constituents.
However, many analysts believe this move will challenge the stability of existing parties and potentially pave the way for new political formations.
The announcement came on Thursday, shortly after Shivambu was demoted following a tumultuous six-month stint in the party’s leadership as the secretary general.
Shivambu’s demotion was publicly confirmed earlier this month after a controversial private visit to Prophet Shepherd Bushiri in Malawi.
The MK party condemned the visit, claiming it was unauthorised and that Shivambu’s actions risked damaging the party’s image.
Shivambu, however, dismissed these allegations, asserting he was dismissed for raising concerns about the embezzlement of R7 million by senior leaders close to former President Jacob Zuma – allegations the MK party has not responded to.
Analysts have said this move to consult broadly signals Shivambu’s intent to reposition himself within South Africa’s political arena, potentially as the architect of a new political force or as a catalyst for realignment within existing structures.
Independent political analyst Joe Mhlanga weighed in on the implications of Shivambu’s consultation process, suggesting that it signals a new wave of party realignments.
“If we look back into history, we see that the formation of new parties often results from splinters or breakaways,” Mhlanga explained.
“The ANC, for example, has birthed many parties over the years – the EFF, UDM, MK party, and others. Most recently, even within the MK party, we’re witnessing attempts at reorganisation and new formations.”
Mhlanga stated that Shivambu’s outreach will likely target dissatisfied members within current parties, including those who feel betrayed or disillusioned with their leadership.
“He’ll be consulting people who are already constituents of other parties, those unhappy with current leadership or policies, and those who believe that a new party could bring meaningful change,” he said.
Mhlanga further warned that this process could trigger significant upheaval within South Africa’s political landscape.
“This will disrupt leadership structures, create defections, and foster chaos. There will be betrayals, party splits, and intense public exchanges.
“As the 2026 local government elections approach, expect a wave of political realignments, with many candidates crossing party lines or forming new alliances.”
He added that the period leading up to the elections will likely be marked by heightened political activity, media scrutiny, and perhaps even controversy or public outbursts.
“Constituents should anticipate visits from leaders attempting to sway their support. This is the nature of politics – dynamic, unpredictable, and often disruptive,” Mhlanga noted.
South African political parties are bracing for a turbulent period as they prepare for the 2026 local government elections.
These elections are widely viewed as a critical indicator of public sentiment ahead of the next general elections, expected in 2029.
Historian Khaya Mthethwa said history was repeating itself, arguing that the last time Shivambu embarked on a consultative process, it led to the formation of the EFF.
“The 2026 elections are around the corner. Every political party is eyeing those elections, and so is Shivamabu. We are most likely to see a new political party, and I will not be surprised to see disgruntled members from the MK party, EFF, and the ANC.”
Mthethwa warned that black political parties were now more divided and felt that this would lead to ordinary citizens losing interest as parties engaged in factional battles.
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