Eskom has assured the country that system remains stable despite being constrained on the back of rising demand as a result of inclement weather conditions.
The State-owned power utility on Friday said it would add 2 550MW to the grid on Monday, and thus rotational load shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW.
“While system constraints are occasionally experienced, adequate emergency reserves are in place and are being strategically deployed to support demand during the morning and evening peak periods, particularly as the country prepares for a forecasted cold spell in the coming week,” it said.
Eskom added that it was making steady progress as they move beyond the peak maintenance season, with the Planned Capability Loss Factor (PCLF) having decreased from last week’s average of ~4 883MW to this week’s (30 May to 5 June) average of ~4 035MW.
“As a result, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has been recovering as expected, now fluctuating between 61% and 64% since Monday. Month-to-date, the EAF stands at 60.42%, reflecting the successful return of additional generation units from planned maintenance,” Eskom said.
“For the financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 5 974MW, representing 12.76% of total generation capacity. This reflects a decrease from the previous week, but a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year.”
Eskom said that it planned to return a total of 2 550MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday to further stabilise the grid.
“The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures the capacity lost due to unplanned outages, stands at 28.93% for the financial year to date (1 April to 5 June 2025). This represents a slight increase of ~0.8% compared to 28.17% recorded over the same period last year,” it said.
“The increase in the UCLF this week includes the delay in returning the 800MW from Medupi Unit 4, which is in the final stages of a long-term recovery project following generator damages in August 2021.”
Eskom added that commissioning activities are currently underway and Grid Code compliance testing is expected to resume in the coming week.
“The unit is anticipated to return to service within June 2025. The Open-Cycle Gas Turbine (OCGT) load factor decreased to 6.31% this week, compared to 12.70% in the previous week (23 to 29 May 2025). This decline indicates reduced reliance on diesel.”
Eskom said that the financial year-to-date OCGT load factor reflects a 5.2% decrease compared to the year-to-date figure from the previous week.
“The diesel expenditure is still within budget for the current financial year. Diesel usage is expected to decline further as more units return from long-term repairs and maintenance activities are reduced, increasing available generation capacity,” Eskom said.
“The Winter Outlook, published on 5 May 2025, covering the period ending 31 August 2025, remains valid. It indicates that loadshedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13 000MW. If outages rise to 15 000MW, loadshedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2.”
Energy expert Ruse Moleshe, managing director of RUBK, said that Eskom was entering the winter period when demand for electricity was typically higher due to higher need for heating and other services.
“The concerted effort to focus on and increase maintenance during the summer season bodes well for winter, due to expected plant reliability. So does bringing the additional 2500 MW capacity on stream. All these efforts will contribute to increased plant availability,” Moleshe said.
“Although the risk of unplanned outages or plant breakdowns remains, given the constrained system, Eskom has done well to plan for the winter period and ensure all efforts are made to increase supply options to meet the needs of consumers.”
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