This would not be the first time in history that a world-leading nation suffers from a severe cultural and social backlash at home and abdicates its leadership role in global commerce.
Superficially viewed, Donald Trump’s attacks on the global economic and strategic order appear as attacks on the rest of the world. However, the root cause of his attacks is entirely domestic in origin.
A large share of the American people is not benefiting from the United States’ extraordinary riches and feels marginalized in a society dominated by cosmopolitan and socially progressive elites.
Abdicating generations of U.S. leadership
This is astonishing insofar as the contemporary trade and economic order of the world has been shaped by at least three generations of U.S. government and business leaders.
Their concerted actions have enabled the United States to become – and, for a long time, remain – the world’s leading economy and technological powerhouse. U.S. companies dominate the world economy especially in the technology space.
The Trumpian “pitchfork moment”
And yet, the Trumpian “pitchfork moment” is underpinned by a gigantic cultural, social and political backlash against the economic and strategic order that the United States constructed so carefully following the Second World War.
To the Trump team, it does not matter for a minute that the established strategic order – based on NATO and alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand – has brought peace and stability to large parts of the world and underpinned global economic growth.
While the United States’ partners may contribute less than the U.S. government to these alliances, the United States has derived plenty of economic benefits from its dominant position in world affairs.
Not the first time in history
This would not be the first time in history that a world-leading nation suffers from a cultural and social backlash that has swept through their country.
Just consider what happened to the Netherlands, the country which gave birth to the first liberal revolution around the year 1600.
That exit may have occurred over 400 years ago, but the parallels are uncanny.
The Netherlands created modern globalization
The Netherlands arguably created modern globalization by inventing tall ships and navigation, joint stock companies and stock markets, as well as land and water management.
This country society of swamps and dykes had a decentralized society, in contrast to France whose society and politics were centralized in Paris and Versailles. The Dutch celebrated individual rights, embraced markets and trade and tolerated religious minorities.
In sum, the Netherlands saw the earliest flourishing of classical liberalism anywhere in the West, even before the term was invented. This plucky country became the richest in the world in terms of income per person!
No paradise of harmony and prosperity
However, scratching below the surface, the Netherlands was no paradise of harmony and prosperity. Periods of dramatic economic and technological transformation always offer more benefits to some groups than others. They also create changes that some embrace and others resist.
There were divisions between those in favor of tolerance and those practicing strict religious conservatism. Merchants were in favor of free trade and globalization, while traditional artisans lobbied for tariffs and other protectionism.
Old aristocrats felt threatened by the rise of the nouveaux riches. As in Trump’s America, in the Netherlands of the time, ideological differences had a regional dimension, with cities being in favor of globalization and rural areas against.
Passing the mantle of liberalism and global commerce to England
The ensuing political divisions in response to the Netherlands’ cultural, social and political backlash led to a slowdown in the country’s economic and technological dynamism.
The Netherlands remains a very successful country today, but its moment of world leadership passed.
Thankfully, the ideas behind the Dutch economic dynamism did not die on the vine. They migrated to England through the Glorious Revolution, under the leadership of the Dutch-born “William of Orange.”
And on to the United States
As a result, England then became the most powerful country in the world. Over time, liberal ideas would travel from England to its colony, the United States. They were critical factors in the development of the United States as a global-minded, capitalist democracy.
With the advent of the Trump Revolution, and the prospective waning of the United States as the world’s economic and political hegemon, the question is which country might pick up the baton left by the United States.
With its enormous economy, Europe has the potential for world leadership. But its continuing inability to speak and act with one voice means that there is little prospect for Europe becoming a world leader.
Could China step in and take advantage of the Trump Revolution?
Most democracies are wary of China’s assertive and coercive tendencies. But Donald Trump’s trade war is already pushing China and the EU closer together despite their differences.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has been on a charm offensive to Southeast Asia. Given that around 70% of the economies in the world already trade more with China than they do with the United States of America, China is a very attractive partner.
All the more so as more than half of all economies now trade twice as much with China compared to the United States.
John West is executive director of the Asian Century Institute, which conducts research and analysis and participates in policy dialogues to foster a better understanding of the opportunities and challenges of the Asian Century.
The Globalist
BUSINESS REPORT
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