American author Mark Twain famously liked to quote former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli on the limitations of using numbers to forecast the future: “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Leinster supporters would likely agree.
Over the four years of the United Rugby Championship (URC), their team has dominated the statistical charts and consistently finished top of the league table. By the numbers, they should have won the title comfortably — yet they fell short in 2022, 2023, and 2024, with the current tournament still undecided.
Leinster fans won’t be holding their breath — they’ve been let down by statistics before.
Still, a look at the data following the final league round of the URC illustrates why the Bulls are South Africa’s best bet for the title; why the Stormers should not be dismissed simply because they travel to Glasgow for their quarter-final; and why the Sharks may be living on borrowed time.
The Bulls, riding a six-match winning streak in the URC, have racked up a remarkable 70 tries while conceding 44 — by far the best tries-for/tries-against ratio among the South African sides. Across the entire 16-team tournament, only Glasgow and Leinster boast a better ratio.
One stat that should concern Sean Everitt’s Edinburgh is that, over their last three matches at Loftus Versfeld, the Bulls have averaged eight tries per game — with their backs cashing in on the dominance of their forward pack. To be fair to Wilco Louw and company, the forwards often finish the job themselves.
The Stormers are also prolific scorers, with 66 tries to their name. However, their overall tries-for/against ratio isn’t as flattering.
This is where statistics can be misleading — of the 56 tries they’ve conceded in their 18 league games, the majority came in the first half of the season when they were severely understrength. Key playmakers Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Manie Libbok, and Damian Willemse were unavailable, and the team suffered a glut of injuries in the front row.
A more relevant number at this stage of the competition is 24 — the number of tries the Stormers have scored in their last four (victorious) matches.
The Sharks’ most curious statistic is that they finished third on the log — a remarkable improvement from their 14th-place finish last year — despite conceding more tries (59) than they scored (55). Intriguingly, they scored the exact same number of tries (55) in the previous tournament, suggesting that their attacking game has stagnated over the past year.
Who says defence doesn’t win matches?
For the Sharks, it clearly does.
But will it be enough against knockout specialists Munster? And if they manage to get past the Irish side, can they go further with minimal try-scoring output?
At this stage of the season, momentum matters — and over the past six rounds, both the Bulls and Stormers are peaking, as the stats suggest. But Leinster fans would offer a cautionary reminder: “The best stats in the world mean nothing in a knockout match if your team doesn’t pitch up on the day.”
