If we are serious about securing a resilient, sustainable future, we must learn the right lessons — and fast.
Intermittent Renewables: An Engineering Challenge, Not a Silver Bullet
Over the past decade, Iberia has significantly expanded its renewable generation capacity, adding vast amounts of wind and solar to the grid.
Yet behind the headlines, one unavoidable fact remains: Renewable energy is intermittent by nature — and storage technologies remain prohibitively expensive, inefficient, or geographically constrained. Without sufficient storage, the inherent variability of renewables injects instability into the grid. Modern grids are designed to balance predictable flows, not to absorb infinite volatility without consequence.
The Forgotten Fundamentals of Electricity: Synchronization and Stability
Electricity is not merely generated — it must flow through high-voltage grids to reach consumers. For this to happen seamlessly, different segments of the grid must be synchronized, operating at a standardized frequency (50 Hz in Europe).
Large traditional power plants — through their rotating generators — stabilize the system, keeping grids “in sync.” When variability increases beyond manageable thresholds, phase mismatch and frequency drift occur, compromising the ability to safely connect grids.
High-Voltage Transmission Lines: The Invisible Backbone
Electricity is transmitted across high-voltage lines — typically operating at 220 kV, 310 kV, or 400 kV for intra-country and inter-regional networks within the EU.
These lines have strict operational tolerances: voltage can fluctuate by about ±7–8% without serious issues, and frequency must remain within ±1% — meaning European grids must stay tightly locked between 49.5–50.5 Hz.
If either parameter breaches safe limits, automatic protection systems disconnect the affected lines to prevent catastrophic cascades — which is precisely what unfolded in April.
What Happened in Iberia: A Technological Reality Check
The Spanish-Portuguese blackout was not a cyberattack.
It was not sabotage. It was the inevitable result of excessive intermittency: too much variability overwhelmed high-voltage transmission control.
Grid synchronization was lost, forcing emergency disconnection from the broader ENTSO-E European grid. Supply collapsed, leading to widespread blackouts.
The event exposed what energy engineers have warned about for years: when intermittent energy sources dominate without dispatchable backup, system stability cannot be guaranteed.
The Hidden Threshold: How Much Intermittency Is Too Much?
Industry experts have long recognized a critical rule of thumb: once intermittent sources approach ~33% of total grid capacity, balancing becomes exponentially harder — unless a grid has hyper-dispatchable backup generation.
Norway is often cited as a “100% renewable” success story — but this is a profound misunderstanding. Norway’s baseload is 100% hydropower — the most dispatchable, controllable form of generation known to man. Solar- and wind-heavy grids without such dispatchable anchors are a different reality entirely.
Narratives vs. Reality: When Politics Overrules Engineering
It is telling that initial speculation from officials in Spain pointed toward cyberattacks rather than examining the obvious technical causes.
Such deflections are born of political incentives to shield the prevailing narrative: that wind and solar alone can deliver energy security without compromise.
But reality remains stubborn: physics does not negotiate. When engineering limits are ignored, systems fail — regardless of political agendas.
Yesterday’s blackout forced even the most ardent narrative defenders to acknowledge the truth: excessive variability, poorly backed by dispatchable capacity, crippled the Iberian grid.
Where We Go From Here: A Call for Engineering-Led Policy
This event must serve as a wake-up call. Engineers, system architects, and real specialists must reclaim their voice in energy policy debates.
Technology reality must drive policy — not the other way around. Blind overreliance on intermittent renewables without investing in grid stability is a strategic error. Europe must diversify its energy mix intelligently — and that includes a massive reinvestment in nuclear power as a cornerstone of clean, dispatchable baseload.
Europe has no future without going back to nuclear. Policymakers in countries like Germany — who shut down nuclear following an absurd decision by ignorant policymakers (some also allege massive corruption) — should reflect carefully. Spain, too, should recognize it was fortunate this blackout did not occur during the scorching peak of summer, when grid failure could have turned catastrophic.
Final ThoughtEnergy security is not a political slogan. It is an engineering reality — and it must be treated as such.
How do we realign energy policy with engineering reality — ensuring security, sustainability, and resilience — without falling prey to ideological shortcuts?I look forward to your perspectives.
Dr Adrian Blanck is an International Energy Executive skilled at solving complex issues at local and regional level. General management, performance improvement and stakeholder engagement for value creation with Shell, Elf, Total and Saudi Aramco. Management consultant and board-level advisor in Europe and MENA with Accenture.
BUSINESS REPORT
www.businessreport.co.za
