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Friday, March 29, 2024

US midterm elections results: How the parties are doing in maps and charts

Graphic of voting badges

The Republicans are looking more likely to take the House of Representatives while the Democrats are now projected to retain control of the Senate.

Here is what we know so far about the results.

The House is leaning Republican

The House of Representatives is leaning towards the Republicans, according to projections from CBS News, the BBC’s partner in the US.

The party is inching closer to winning the 218 seats needed for a majority but the races are close.

If the Democrats lose the House, this will make it difficult for President Joe Biden to pass laws during the next two years of his term of office.

The main surprise has been the shift to the Republicans in the state of New York, normally seen as a Democratic stronghold. The Republicans managed to take control of four seats here from the Democrats with one more more still to be called.

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Map by Reuters

The Senate stays in Democrat hands

The Democrats are projected to win a close race in Nevada, meaning that control of the Senate no longer hinges on the outcome of a run-off election in Georgia, scheduled for 6 December.

Currently the Democrats have 50 seats and the Republicans have 49.

Before Tuesday’s election the Senate was split 50-50 but the Democrats had control through the casting vote of the vice-president Kamala Harris.

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Map by Reuters

On Tuesday night, the Democrats flipped Pennsylvania in the Senate with John Fetterman beating Trump-endorsed candidate Mehmet Oz.

It has been the only Senate seat so far to change hands.

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The map below shows the tight race in Georgia, where a run-off will be held in December.

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Map by Reuters

The only other seat where we don’t know the name of the winner is Alaska. But the race here is projected to be a Republican win, although we will not know the winning candidate until 23 November when second and third choice preference votes are counted. The leading candidates are incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski and Kelly Tshibaka who is also a Republican.

Presidential hopeful wins in Florida

Ron De Santis won the governorship in Florida – he is tipped as a potential Republican presidential candidate in 2024 and is a possible rival to former President Donald Trump. Mr De Santis beat his Democratic opponent by almost 20 percentage points.

The Republicans also won the race for governor in Nevada, taking it from the Democrats.

While, in turn, the Democrats took control of the governor’s mansion from the Republicans in both Massachusetts and Maryland.

What drove the vote?

Exit poll chart: Which of these five issues mattered most in deciding how you voted today? Inflation: 31%, Abortion: 27%, Gun policy: 11%, Crime: 11%, Immigration: 10%

Rising prices and abortion were the two issues top of voters’ minds as they cast their ballots, according to the national exit poll.

Almost a third of people surveyed said inflation was the issue that mattered most in deciding how they voted. A large majority of voters also said it had caused them hardship in the past year.

But abortion was another top issue, with 27% of people saying it was their deciding factor, after the Supreme Court overturned a ruling which had given nationwide protection for abortion rights.

That said, voters were sharply divided along party lines – inflation was by far the biggest issue for Republicans, while for Democrats, abortion was top.

Exit poll: How the five key issues are split along party lines. 45% of Republicans put inflation top whereas 43% of Democrats put abortion.

The exit poll is conducted as people leave polling places across the country. Voters are asked to fill in a confidential questionnaire with demographic information and their views on candidates, parties and a range of topics.

Those topics include the election process itself. More than two-thirds of voters said they thought that democracy in the US was somewhat or very threatened. Only 9% said it was very secure.

Exit poll: Do you think democracy in the US today is: Very secure 9%, Somewhat secure: 21%, Somewhat threatened: 32%, Very threatened: 36%

Abortion votes

Five states voted on changes to abortion rules.

Vermont, California and Michigan all voted in favour of including the right to reproductive freedom in the state constitution.

In Kentucky, however, the question is the opposite – whether or not to specifically exclude the right to abortion in the state constitution. The measure was rejected by a narrow margin.

Kentucky rejects measure to deny abortion protection. 52.4% voted No, 47.6% of people voted Yes to the constitutional amendment.

In Montana, voters were not asked about abortion directly but rejected a so-called “born alive” measure by 52.6% to 47.4%.

If passed it would have legally guaranteed any newborn infant, even those born as a result of abortion, the right to medical care that would preserve life.

Voter numbers are high

Midterm elections usually have a relatively low turnout, but over 112 million people went out to vote this year, according to early figures from the US Elections Project.

This is one of the highest turnout figures in decades.

Chart showing turnout over time. 2022 is 47%

Map showing varying turnout in different states over the years

By Wesley Stephenson, Christine Jeavans, Alison Benjamin, Becky Dale, John Walton, Jana Tauschinski and William Dahlgreen.

Top of midterms links box

  • Who is winning the night so far?
  • In full: Senate, House and governor results
  • Trump warns rival against running for president
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