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Friday, March 29, 2024

Best prop bet specials for AFC, NFC championships: Chiefs-Bengals light it up, 49ers offense struggles

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The AFC and NFC championship games are inching closer, and prior to the action kicking off, we’ve highlighted a handful of actionable prop bet specials posted on DraftKings Sportsbook. During the playoffs, DraftKings derived specialty prop markets each weekend, giving bettors a different way to get action on the biggest games of the season.

Below, we’ve broken down our favorite prop specials for Sunday’s championship games, giving our picks on the highest-scoring game of the weekend along with the lowest-scoring team, and others.

Best Conference Championship Prop Bet Specials

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Any player to have at least 150 receiving yards: Yes (+250)

At +250, we’ll take a shot on at least one wideout having a big enough day to rack up 150-plus receiving yards on championship Sunday. How can we not root for a big performance from some of the league’s best playmakers? Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Travis Kelce, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are the most likely candidates to pop off, but you never know who else might show out on the big stage. While Brown and Smith are the lone wideouts to post a 150-plus yard performance this season, all eight wideouts see enough volume to potentially lead to a strong showing on championship Sunday.

Highest scoring game: Chiefs-Bengals (-125)

We’ll also lay the juice on Chiefs-Bengals to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. Currently, the Chiefs-Bengals total (47.5) is just one point higher than the 49ers-Eagles (46.5), but the total would be near 50 points if Patrick Mahomes was at or near 100 percent. Much of the reason the Chiefs have returned as the betting favorites on Sunday is a direct result of Mahomes practicing on Wednesday and not showing a noticeable limp as he did in the divisional round. There’s a good chance some more OVER money comes in priorbeforeoff, likely pushing the Chiefs-Bengals total up even more. If that happens, betting on the Chiefs-Bengals to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend will be steeper than -125. Get this bet in before it’s too late.

Highest scoring team: Kansas City Chiefs (+310)

We think this market is mispriced, as the Chiefs are currently listed with the third-best odds to be the highest-scoring team this weekend behind the Bengals (+210) and Eagles (+230). Considering the Chiefs returned to short home favorites in a game with a higher total, Kansas City should really be priced around the +200 to +250 range, if not even lower. Again, this all has to do with Mahomes’ ankle, but with things trending in the right direction, we can’t pass up betting on the league’s most efficient offense (0.179 EPA/play) to do its thing.

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Lowest scoring team: San Francisco 49ers (+190)

It’s tough to fade the league’s third-most efficient offense (0.096 EPA/play), but we’re expecting offense to be hard to come by for the 49ers this weekend. Brock Purdy had trouble under pressure last weekend, and when matched up against another elite defensive line, we’re likely in for another lower-scoring contest. It also doesn’t hurt that Philadelphia’s pass defense has been the best unit in the league this season, entering the NFC championship allowing the lowest drop-back EPA (-0.103).

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Home Team Points vs. Away Team Points: Home Team Points -0.5 (-110)

Similar to the highest-scoring team market, we think this prop special is also a bit mispriced with Kansas City now sitting as short home favorites. We’ll gladly lay the short price to back the home teams outscoring the road teams this weekend and would bet this up to -2 (-110). There’s a chance the Chiefs spread and moneyline continues to move in their direction, which only helps our chances of cashing this ticket. We’re also expecting the Eagles to grind out a home victory over the 49ers, making this a fun way to root for both home teams on Sunday.

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