No. 10 Arkansas faces No. 23 Texas A&M on Saturday night at AT&T Stadium (7 p.m. ET on ESPN) in the 2022 rendition of the Southwest Classic. Arkansas looks to get back on track after an uneasy 38-27 win over FCS Missouri State, while Texas A&M looks to notch their second-straight victory with newly appointed quarterback Max Johnson leading the offense. Saturday’s meeting marks back-to-back Southwest Classics where both Arkansas and Texas A&M sit ranked within the AP Top 25.
Despite Missouri State sitting within the top-10 in the FCS rankings with a former Power Five head coach (Bobby Petrino) and QB (Jason Shelley), the Razorbacks had to dig themselves out of a fairly large hole, falling behind 17-0 to the Bears in the first half. Arkansas was able to get the offense going from the second quarter on, scoring all 38 points in quarters two through four. The final score is a bit misleading, as this game was played more like a one-score game while Arkansas ended up notching a double-digit victory.
Texas A&M bounced back after its disappointing 17-14 loss to Appalachian State in Week 2 with a much-needed victory over then-No. 13 Miami. While the Aggies walked out of Kyle Field with a 17-8 win, this game was a bit closer than the final score indicated. Miami outgained Texas A&M 392-264 but struggled in the red zone and muffed a punt, giving Texas A&M prime field position for one of its two touchdowns on the night. Can Johnson and the Aggies’ offense put together a more complete game against the Razorbacks?
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 4 ATS Picks
Here’s everything to know about betting on the Week 4 matchup between the Razorbacks and Aggies:
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
- Over/under: 48.5
- Moneyline: Texas A&M -135; Arkansas +115
After sitting around five-point favorites in the preseason, Texas A&M reopened as 2.5-point favorites in this neutral site clash over the weekend. The over/under has also seen some movement, ticking down to 48 after opening around 53.5.
Three trends to know
— Texas A&M has won nine of the past 10 meetings against Arkansas.
— The total has gone UNDER in five of Texas A&M’s past seven games.
— According to BetQL, “while Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson has completed 70.5% of his passes this year, note that Jimbo Fisher’s teams are 12-5 SU against teams that complete at least 62% of their passes.”
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Three things to watch
— Max Johnson vs. K.J. Jefferson: As always, all eyes will be on the quarterback battle, but this one feels extra special, as Johnson will be making his first SEC conference start with Texas A&M. When Johnson was still a member of LSU, he played sparingly in the Tigers’ 16-13 loss to Arkansas last season, completing three-of-six passes for 21 yards. Johnson looked better in the pocket than fellow Aggie QB Haynes King, but his first start wasn’t anything special, completing 10-of-20 passes for 140 yards and one TD. Jefferson’s been a much more stable entity at the QB position and has faced a relatively challenging schedule of opposing defenses to begin the season. Texas A&M’s defense is the most complete defense the Razorbacks will face through the first four weeks, so we’ll see how Kendal Briles’ unit stacks up on Saturday night.
—Aggies’ pass defense: Texas A&M boasts PFF’s 97th-rated coverage grade (62.6) and will step up in class against a talented Razorbacks receiving corps headlined by Matt Landers and Jadon Haselwood. The Aggies’ pass defense played much better than their 97th-best coverage grade would seem to indicate, as they limited Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke to 21-of-41 passing for 217 yards and zero touchdowns. Van Dyke was forced to air the football out more than the Hurricanes would have liked given they had a negative game script for the majority of the contest. Miami was without its top receiver, Xavier Restrepo, though, and the Razorbacks’ receiving corps is a bit more well-rounded than the Hurricanes’.
—Red-zone defense: Whichever team is able to limit their opponents’ effectiveness in the red zone is likely going to have the upper hand on Saturday night. Texas A&M limited Miami to just nine points on six total scoring opportunities (ball past the opponent’s 40-yard line) and will need a similar output if they want to beat Arkansas. Arkansas’ defense was also effective when its back was against the wall, limiting Missouri State to just 13 points on seven scoring opportunities. Which defense continues to be stout when it matters most?
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M prediction
This is a tough game to get involved with from a betting standpoint, as there’s a good deal of uncertainty around the potential outcome. Considering Texas A&M sat as high as 6.5-point favorites in this game, the “line value” is clearly on the side of the Aggies, but there’s a reason the spread has dipped. While Texas A&M’s defense is up for the challenge, Max Johnson and the Aggies’ offense have to show more. As a result, we’ll lean toward the Razorbacks’ side, as Jefferson leads Arkansas to a second-straight victory in what’s been a one-sided rivalry in favor of the Aggies.
Prediction: Arkansas 24, Texas A&M 20. Arkansas (+2.5) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (48.5).
