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Friday, December 9, 2022

NCAA Baseball Tournament 2022: Oklahoma, Texas, Ole Miss among Super Regional best bets

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After a thrilling first weekend of the NCAA Baseball Tournament that saw 11 national seeds advance out of their respective regions, super regional play picks back up Friday. Despite showing some vulnerability, top-seeded Tennessee advanced out of the Knoxville regional with an unblemished record and is the betting favorite (+160) to win the 2022 College World Series.

Their super regional foe, Notre Dame, will have something to say about that, as the Golden Domers have the power and pitching capable of making this weekend’s best-of-three series a doozy. The rest of the series figure to be competitive, high-intensity baseball, making for appointment television.

Below, we’ll highlight three super regional series odds that present an opportunity to get involved from a betting standpoint.

MORE CWS: Super Regional bracket, schedule

2022 College World Series Odds

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction

Team

Odds to win CWS

Tennessee Volunteers

+160

Stanford Cardinal

+500

Oregon State Beavers

+700

Virginia Tech Hokies

+800

Texas Longhorns

+1000

North Carolina Tar Heels

+1900

Texas A&M Aggies

+2400

Arkansas Razorbacks

+2400

Louisville Cardinals

+2400

Ole Miss Rebels

+2900

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

+2900

Auburn Tigers

+3400

Oklahoma Sooners

+3900

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

+4900

East Carolina Pirates

+7900

Connecticut Huskies

+11900

Super Regional Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Blacksburg Super Regional Odds

Oklahoma +160 (implied probability 38.46 percent)
Virginia Tech -195 (implied probability 66.10 percent)

Best Bet: Oklahoma +160

Following the Sooners’ Big 12 championship, Oklahoma parlayed their hot play with an impressive run in the Gainesville regional, taking out host and No. 13 national seed Florida in a winner-take-all Game 7.

The Sooners will now travel east to Blacksburg to take on fourth-seeded Virginia Tech. The Hokies steamrolled through the Blacksburg regional, going 3-0 with a +31 run differential.

Oklahoma is a different beast, and despite Virginia Tech having the edge in home field, Oklahoma’s hot streak will continue as the Sooners advance to their first College World Series since 2010. Oklahoma’s top three starters, Jake Bennett, David Sandlin, and Cade Horton give the Sooners the edge on the mound, and ultimately the advantage in this best-of-three series.

Virginia Tech’s current price (-195) to advance to their first-ever College World Series is steep, with the odds already implying they win the Blacksburg super regional two-out-of-three times.

Despite the excitement around the Hokies’ fan base with the team never appearing in a College World Series, the Sooners’ overall stability makes them a worthwhile plus-money underdog play.

Greenville Super Regional Odds

Texas -170 (implied probability 62.96 percent)
East Carolina +140 (implied probability 41.67 percent)

Best Bet: Texas -170

Texas is warranted as the road favorites in the Greenville super regional and has what it takes to advance to their second-straight College World Series.

The ninth-seeded Longhorns were one seed away from hosting a super regional of their own but instead will have to win two of three at Lewis Field.

Texas impressed in a competitive Austin regional, sporting a 3-0 record and taking out Air Force in Game 6. Texas’ offensive firepower (fifth in NCAA in slugging, .556 SLG) makes it a stable investment, headlined by the NCAA home run leader, 1B Ivan Melendez (30 HR).

East Carolina had some trouble advancing out of their regional but ultimately took care of Coastal Carolina 13-4 in Game 7. The Pirates pitching staff has been one of the more consistent units in college baseball, ranking 14th in WHIP (1.28), but can an offense ranking 115th in slugging (.440 SLG) keep up with the Longhorns?

Lay the juice and back Texas to return to the CWS.

Hattiesburg Super Regional Odds

Southern Mississippi -120 (implied probability 54.55 percent)
Ole Miss -110 (implied probability 52.38 percent)

Best Bet: Ole Miss -110

Mike Bianco’s bunch notched their second-straight appearance in the supers, scoring a total of 31 runs in their three victories in the Coral Gables regional.

The betting markets respect the Rebels enough to list them essentially at a pick ’em on the road against 11th-seeded Southern Mississippi, who had an eventful regional round, to say the least.

After defeating Army 2-0 in Game 1, Southern Miss blew a 6-2 ninth-inning lead to LSU in Game 4, a win that put the Tigers in the driver’s seat to return to the supers. The Golden Eagles had other plans, using a ninth-inning rally to eliminate Kennesaw State in Game 5 and then beating LSU twice in Games 6 and 7 to host their first-ever super regional.

First baseman Christopher Sargent was instrumental in the Golden Eagles’ regional success, going 11-for-21 at the plate and knocking in the game-winning RBI in Southern Mississippi’s Game 5 win over Kennesaw State.

The atmosphere at Pete Taylor Park will be chaotic, but ultimately the Rebels will end the Golden Eagles’ hopes of making their second-ever appearance at the CWS and return to Omaha for the first time in eight years.

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