South Africa’s two biggest political parties are in an unhappy marriage, but neither side wants to file divorce papers as it could damage them and, ultimately, their offspring – South African voters.
But as the children of all toxic relationships know, it can be painful to watch the tantrums played out in public as each side tries to prove they are the better parent.
The loveless union in this case is what is called the Government of National Unity (GNU), which was formed in the wake of elections last year when the African National Congress (ANC), the party that brought in democratic rule in 1994 with Nelson Mandela, lost its parliamentary majority.
Its arch rival, the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) party, agreed to join the ANC as its biggest partner in a coalition, which has just celebrated its first year anniversary. There was no popping of champagne – there have only been cross words.
But the two leaders, President Cyril Ramaphosa of the ANC and John Steenhuisen of the DA, have shown how their partnership can ideally work when they supported each other in the Oval Office showdown with US President Donald Trump in May.
After Trump confronted the delegation with a video in support of discredited claims of a white genocide in South Africa, it was Steenhuisen – the agriculture minister in Ramaphosa’s cabinet – who assured the US president that the majority of white farmers wanted to stay in the country.
Their performance proved to South Africans the GNU was worth the bickering at home.
Together the unlikely pair hold the political middle ground in South Africa and have the potential to be a stabilising force – this is certainly the opinion of big business.
Their alliance initially raised some eyebrows, given that that they were opposed “ideologically [and] historically”, but the business community largely welcomed the move, political analyst Dr Levy Ndou told the BBC.
For the DA it was a chance to get its hands on the levers of power – and stop what it regards as radical opposition parties like uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) forming a “Doomsday coalition” with the ANC.
Both these parties are led by former ANC officials whom Ramaphosa would rather not cosy up to – plus it would make the cabinet even more of a battleground.
Investors would also not be happy, and Ramaphosa would be left with more of a migraine than a headache.
However, as any relationship counsellor will tell you, you cannot force someone to change their behaviour.
“This GNU… does not mean that the ANC or DA will change their characters,” said Dr Ndou, who is based at the Tshwane University of Technology in South Africa.
“The ANC will always want to push the transformation agenda, the DA will always come with pushback strategies, and… that will be a permanent source of conflict in the GNU.”
The latest crisis – over Ramaphosa’s sacking of Andrew Whitfield, a deputy minister from the DA – has upset Steenhuisen, who held a press conference detailing his heartfelt complaints.
These include Ramaphosa’s decisions to push ahead with various bits of controversial legislation “that have far-reaching consequences for our economy and economic growth, as has been seen by the reaction from some of South Africa’s largest trading partners”.
This is a reference to the US’s anger over the law that will give the state the power to expropriate some privately owned land without compensation for the owners.
“This was done without even the common courtesy of informing the fellow partners in the government of national unity about his intention to do so,” said Steenhuisen.
He also spoke about the budget crisis, when in March, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana proposed hiking VAT by 2%.
The backlash, which included court action, led by the DA – forced him to scrap the proposal.
It is not the only time the DA has taken legal action – playing the opposition card while still being part of the GNU.
Its opposition to the Expropriation Act is at odds with the fact that Public Works Minister Dean Macpherson – a member of the DA – has defended the legislation and will be in charge of implementing it.
It points to divisions within the DA, with one wing led by Steenhuisen believing it is better to be in the tent, while another conservative faction is angered by what it sees as the ANC’s “hypocrisy”.
“In some cases, DA ministers have literally achieved more in 12 months than ANC ministers did in 30 years,” Steenhuisen said.
Yet, nodding to critics within the party, he came down hard on alleged corruption by ANC ministers: “The president’s refusal to act against corruption within his own ranks, but singling out as a priority a DA minister risks confirming that his oft-repeated public commitment to clean governance is a sham.”
This meant, Steenhuisen said, that the DA would not back the budgets for departments led by those it considered corrupt, which includes higher education, led by Nobuhle Nkabane.
She has been under fire for appointing ANC politicians to chair various vocational training boards – and for allegedly misleading parliament about their appointment.
Ramaphosa had refused to comply with a DA ultimatum, after Whitfield’s sacking, to remove her and others the party considers corrupt.
Yet the president too has to deal with factions in his party – there are agitators, like his deputy, who would prefer the EFF.
To some extent Ramaphosa has allowed the DA to continue playing a dual role – of opposition and GNU member – but at times he likes to make it clear who is boss.
This is what happened over Whitfield’s dismissal as deputy trade minister – sacked for taking an unsanctioned trip in February.
When South Africa’s relationship with the US had taken a nose-dive earlier in the year, Whitfield had travelled to the US as part of a DA delegation. He had repeatedly asked for permission to do so, but received no answer from the presidency.
The 42-year-old is from the Eastern Cape province, the heart of South Africa’s car industry, which benefits from the US’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This legislation guarantees duty-free access to American consumers for certain goods from Africa.
Agoa – brought in 25 years ago by former US President Bill Clinton – is up for renewal this year but some fear this will not happen given Trump’s tariff wars and a Republican-dominated Congress.
Whitfield went to the US as part of the DA delegation to lobby for South Africa to stay in AGOA, which also benefits Steenhuisen’s agricultural portfolio.
For Steenhuisen, the ANC’s alleged lack of collaboration has meant a failure to create jobs and the GNU stalling on its economic growth targets.
Political analyst Sandile Swana believes that Ramaphosa and the ANC may be dissatisfied by some of the DA’s dramatic antics, with court action and ultimatums, but are reluctant to split ways completely.
He blames a lack of self-confidence, telling the BBC: “The current ANC has a big inferiority complex and they are dependent on big business and the DA.”
Dr Ndou also suggests Ramaphosa may be playing it diplomatically, not wanting to be the side to initiate a divorce because the ANC would not want “everyone to say they have kicked the DA out of government”.
Both parties would probably be punished by voters if this was the case.
“There is no way that the DA would easily take a decision to pull out of the GNU. It is in the interest of the DA, as a party, and those who are appointed as ministers [to stay],” the academic said.
Mr Swana believes the coalition government as a whole “is a marketing platform” for all parties, which are using it to campaign ahead of next year’s local government elections.
The DA did make it clear at the weekend that there would not be a big bang announcement of them quitting the GNU, but Steenhuisen cautioned that the party’s executive had considered launching a motion of no confidence in the president in parliament – and might do so in the future.
“It is clear that the DA is in the process of losing confidence in the president’s ability to act as a leader not only of the ANC, but of the GNU of which we are the second largest component,” Steenhuisen said.
Ramaphosa was clearly rattled over the weekend – South Africa’s TimeLive news site reported he cancelled an official trip to Spain at the last minute as he awaited the DA’s decision on the future of the GNU.
Steenhuisen’s speech did reveal what seems to be a real communication breakdown in the coalition, with the DA leader blaming Ramaphosa for failing to bring the GNU party leaders together to iron things out after a crisis.
“Similarly, a proposed breakaway for the cabinet to deal with how we interact with each other and resolve disputes that will inevitably arise in a government made up of 10 political parties – a year later, nothing has happened,” he said.
“No breakaway, no dialogue, and no mechanisms internally to determine how we deal with disputes between each other when they arise.”
A marriage counsellor would surely suggest they stop squabbling and sit down and talk frankly – without the megaphone politics.
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