The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will hold its 123rd 3-Day Meeting starting from Monday, 24th March, 2025, after which the Committee will announce its decision on the benchmark Policy Rate (PR).

At its last two meetings held in November and March, the MPC kept the PR unchanged at the previous rate of 27.00%, decisions that the Committee indicated were in response to higher inflation risks.

As was to be expected, the opinion of the public was divided as to the justification for these decisions, depending on where they perceived the relative risks to lie with respect to economic instability, on the one hand, and economic growth and employment, on the other hand.

The MPC faces even a more challenging decision this time round in the midst of persisting difficult economic environment, characterised by high inflation, unstable currency, still high debt, high unemployment and sub-optimal growth, amid a myriad of problems.

Inflation has been stuck in the low twenties for more than two years, recording 23.2% in 2023 and 23.8% in 2024, with the latest rate at the end of February being 23.1%, all of them much higher than the BoG’s target of (8+/-2)%.

In the last two years or so, the cedi has depreciated markedly by 28% in 2023, 19% in 2024 and 5.4% between January 1 and March 18 this year. While this year’s depreciation is lower than the 6.2% recorded in the same period of 2024, it is still significant.

The overall fiscal deficit was -5.2% of GDP (on cash basis) in 2024, slightly above the limit of -5.0% in the suspended Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA). Economic growth in 2024 was, notably, significant at 5.7% (up from 3.1% in 2023), fuelled by the services, construction and mining sectors.

Against this generally gloomy economic backdrop, the Minister of Finance, on Tuesday, 17th March, presented the Government’s first Budget and Economic Policy for 2025 to Parliament.

The key macroeconomic projections in the Budget included:

i) Fiscal deficit (cash) of -4.1%;

ii. End-of-period inflation of 11.9%;

iii. Economic growth of 4.0%; and

iv. Gross international reserves of at least 3 months of import cover.

The Minister also reported the existence of a substantial amount of Government payment arrears to the tune of GHS67.5 billion (or 5.7% of GDP) and equally substantial indebtedness of several State-Owned Enterprise (SOEs).

The national public debt was reported to stand at GHS726.7 billion (USD49.4 billion) or 61.8% of GDP at the end of 2024, even after benefiting from the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) and the accompanying external debt restructuring.

The figures generally point to an economy that is slowly emerging from a crisis, while remaining fragile and vulnerable, as the Minister noted in his presentation.

The Bank of Ghana’s primary objective is widely known to be price stability. However, what is probably not so well known is the fact that the Bank is also enjoined to promote stabilisation of the exchange rate and economic growth, among other secondary objectives.

In spite of the Bank’s mandated multiple objectives, however, it has limited instruments to achieve them. Indeed, the Bank’s overriding instrument, the PR, has to be engaged almost exclusively as an economic stabiliser and economic stimulant as the situation demands.

This goal-instrument limitation confronting the BoG highlights the importance of collaboration between the Bank and Government so that the latter can also bring on board its arsenal of fiscal instruments to achieve the desired macroeconomic outcomes.

The collaboration should critically entail alignment of monetary policy and fiscal policy so that the burden of economic stabilisation or stimulation as may be required does not disproportionately fall on either of the two policies.

Unfortunately, in the past, fiscal policy has been mostly loose amidst fast-growing expenditures and lagging revenues. The widening expenditure-revenue gaps have exerted marked strain on prices and the exchange rate.

Meanwhile, the ever increasing size of recurrent expenditure has consistently squeezed capital expenditure (CAPEX), with a drag on economic growth. In the circumstance, monetary policy has shouldered a disproportionately-high burden of both economic stabilisation and stimulation, a difficult balancing act.

As the MPC meets next week, it will once more be confronted with the difficult decision of where to place the PR with the aim of influencing the economy towards the best inflation and growth outcomes.

While it has long been the wish of many economic watchers that interest rates would begin to unravel to elicit lower cost of credit and engender investment and growth, such an outcome is unlikely at the MPC’s next meeting, given the difficult and uncertain economic environment.

The fact is that, on the one hand, economic growth is doing better, pointing to incipient economic recovery. However, on the one hand, inflation remains elevated, while the exchange rate, although exhibiting relative stability lately, remains vulnerable.

The vulnerability of the exchange rate has been heightened by the sharp drop of over 10 percentage points in Treasury Bill rates in the last few weeks, which threatens causing investors to flee in search of foreign exchange as a safer haven.

It would be helpful to avoid further precipitous fall in Treasury Bill rates so as to stem their divergence from other money market rates. This should be done through close coordination of Government’s debt management and Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management.

Meanwhile, cuts in foreign aid by Western governments and emerging trade wars risk unsettling foreign exchange markets, calling for local vigilance.

My consideration of the several foregoing competing factors leads me to the conclusion that the balance of risks in Ghana currently lies more with inflation than economic growth. I am, therefore, inclined to expect the MPC to go for a hike in the PR by 100 basis points from 27.00% to 28.00%.

This decision should give a clear signal to the markets about the Committee’s commitment to deal decisively with inflation and bring it under control in the foreseeable future.

The decision should also help to anchor inflation expectations, while helping to counteract second-round effects generated from the supply and cost drivers of inflation, particularly food, energy and transportation.

It is worth pointing out here that targeting these supply and cost drivers would help ease the pressure on the PR. It is, therefore, encouraging to note that both the Minister and the Governor have signalled their intention to collaborate to achieve optimal outcomes for inflation, interest rates and economic growth.

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The writer, Dr. Kwakye is currently the Director of Research at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), Ghana. Dr Kwakye also worked previously with the Bank of Ghana (BoG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is an ex- member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of BoG. The views expressed in this Note are entirely those of the author’s and not of any institution(s) or person(s).

Former New Patriotic Party (NPP) Member of Parliament for Dome Kwabenya constituency, Sarah Adwoa Safo, has firmly stated that she and her colleagues in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will not resign until Dr Mahamudu Bawumia becomes the president of Ghana.

Speaking on JoyNews’ The Pulse programme on Thursday, March 20, she expressed her unwavering belief in Dr Bawumia’s leadership abilities, saying he truly deserves the presidency.

“Dr Bawumia is a humble and honest individual. He has many commendable qualities, and if Ghanaians are given the opportunity to support him once more and we effectively market him, he can successfully assume the presidency,” Adwoa Safo said. “He has the capability to lead this country.”

She then drew a parallel to the early criticism faced by former President Akufo-Addo during his initial presidential campaigns.

“What didn’t Ghanaians say about former President Akufo-Addo? They claimed he would never become president, that he was arrogant, and so on,” she recalled. “Despite all of that criticism, the party stood by him, and he eventually became president.”

Reflecting on the history of the party, Adwoa Safo pointed out how the NPP responded to the loss of the 2007 election.

“When we lost the 2007 election, we acknowledged that it was a judgment on President Kufuor’s governance. He quietly accepted it, made no excuses, and simply went home,” she said. “He didn’t resist or try to shift the blame.”

She continued by addressing the current situation, urging the party to accept responsibility for their recent electoral loss.

“Now, after our recent defeat, some in the party seem reluctant to accept that our loss is a reflection of our governance and actions,” she said. “Why is it so difficult for them to swallow that bitter pill?”

She emphasised that the party must face the truth, correct the mistakes that led to the loss, and rally behind Dr Bawumia as their candidate for the future.

“We must take responsibility, fix what went wrong, and bring Dr Bawumia back as our candidate,” she stated. “Ghanaians will support him.”

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The Acting Director General of the Ghana Ports and Harbours Authority (GPHA), Brigadier-General Paul Seidu Tanye-Kulono, has reaffirmed the Authority’s commitment to reducing the cost of doing business at Ghana’s ports, a move aimed at enhancing competitiveness and attracting more trade.

Speaking during a visit by the Importers and Exporters Association of Ghana, Brigadier-General Tanye-Kulono emphasised recent government interventions, including the abolition of select levies that had long burdened importers and exporters.

He further revealed that the GPHA is reviewing port tariffs as part of a broader initiative to enhance efficiency and reduce operational costs.

He acknowledged concerns from transit traders in Burkina Faso and other Sahelian countries who have cited excessive taxes as a deterrent to using Ghana’s ports.

Many traders, he noted, find ports in Abidjan and Lomé more cost-effective due to lower tariffs and the absence of specific charges such as the COVID-19 and disinfection taxes.

“Our colleagues engaged in transit trade have expressed dissatisfaction with some of these levies, arguing that they make Ghana’s ports less competitive,” Brigadier-General Tanye-Kulono stated. “When combined with the language barrier—where Ghana operates in English while our neighbors use French—these higher tariffs discourage foreign traders from choosing our ports. However, discussions are at an advanced stage to review these taxes, and I am confident that necessary adjustments will be made soon.”

Samson Asaki Awingobit, Executive Secretary of the Importers and Exporters Association of Ghana, urged GPHA to address additional challenges such as high demurrage charges and truck overloading within the port enclave.

“To attract more business from our landlocked neighbors, we must enforce standard loading limits to prevent excessive road deterioration caused by overloaded trucks. These issues must be tackled to create a sustainable and business-friendly environment,” Awingobit stressed.

He emphasized that streamlining port operations and reducing costs would not only benefit local businesses but also solidify Ghana’s position as a leading trade hub in the region.

John Ayiku Ocansey has been appointed the Deputy Managing Director of ECG

The Weija-Gbawe Constituency branch of the National Democratic Congress has congratulated John Ayiku Ocansey on his appointment as the Deputy Managing Director of the Electricity Company of Ghana, describing the appointment as well-deserved.

In a statement dated March 20, 2025, and signed by the Constituency Secretary, Fati Ahmed, the party expressed gratitude to President John Dramani Mahama for recognising Ayiku, who they described as a devoted member of the party in the constituency, having served in various roles.

“Congratulations to Mr. John Ayiku Ocansey on his well-deserved appointment as the Deputy Managing Director of the Electricity Company of Ghana. We thank the President for recognizing his exceptional leadership and expertise.

“As a devoted member of the Weija-Gbawe Constituency, Mr. John Ayiku Ocansey has served in various capacities, including as a former Constituency Treasurer and a Parliamentary Candidate aspirant. His deep commitment to the community is evident through his years of dedicated service. With an impressive 25-year career as a senior staff member at the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), he has consistently demonstrated professionalism, expertise, and an unwavering dedication to progress and development,” the statement said.

The statement further touted Ayiku as possessing a track record of exceptional leadership, in-depth knowledge, and strategic vision—qualities that set him apart as fit for his role at the state-owned power distributor.

Similarly, staff of ECG have welcomed the appointment of Mr. Ayiku, who, prior to his appointment, had worked with the distributor for 28 years.

Until his recent appointment, he was the HR Manager for the Accra East Region of the ECG. He holds a BSc in Social Sciences from the University of Ghana, an MSc in Governance and Development from the University of Cape Coast, and an LLB from Mountcrest University College.

In an introductory letter dated March 17, 2025, signed by the Minister of Energy, John Jinapor, he urged workers of ECG to accord Ocansey the necessary support for the success of the company.

GA/AE

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