Brazil presidential election heads to runoff as Bolsonaro and Lula fall short of a majority

BRASILIA, Brazil — Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the convicted former president and an ally of President Trump, will face off against Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a runoff Oct. 25 for the top job of Latin America’s powerhouse economy after neither won a majority in Sunday’s vote.

The country’s electoral court in Brasilia said neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking his second reelection and his fourth term overall, nor the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro would garner the majority vote needed for an outright win.

The court had Bolsonaro with just over 55.8 million votes to Lula’s nearly 53.2 million. Both candidates were poised to address supporters.

The next presidential term is set to begin Jan. 5.

The winner will be in charge of Latin America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million. A win for Bolsonaro would increase U.S. influence in Latin America. If Lula wins, Brazil will keep its distance from Washington and continue to deepen its relationship with China.

Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who garnered about 5.3 million votes combined Sunday, have previously said they will not endorse either in the runoff.

In the campaign ahead, Lula is expected to try to capitalize on the popularity of his social policies and his rival’s many legal woes.

While the once widely popular Lula saw his approval ratings plummet during his third term, standing up to the U.S. gave him a boost. And he still enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit his social policies for improving millions of Brazilians’ lives.

But the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same justice who led the investigation into Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro will likely lean into his messaging on affordability and link the president to corruption scandals.

He has promised to crack down on Brazilian criminal groups and insisted that Brazil needs to strike better deals with the Trump administration, including in the rare minerals economy, second only to China. Bolsonaro also has campaigned on releasing his father from house arrest and bringing him back to politics.

“Brazil needs change. Brazil can’t stand so much suffering,” the senator told reporters at the Rio de Janeiro voting center where he cast his vote Sunday.

Both candidates face image problems: Roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and roughly half disapprove of Lula’s Workers’ Party, according to polls.

Four years ago, Lula beat then-President Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes. The elder Bolsonaro responded by leading a coup attempt, which resulted in a criminal conviction and a 27-year sentence. He has been moved from prison to house arrest for health reasons.

“I’m feeling calm but very sad with the result,” said Alvaro Senra, 65, a history professor and Lula supporter in Rio de Janeiro who watched the count with friends at a bar. “I think this is the result of conservatives working under the radar, including by neo-Pentecostal churches. But I think Lula can still win.”

Earlier in the day, Maria Ribeiro, a 50-year-old cellphone vendor from Brasilia, said she voted for Sen. Bolsonaro because she wants the freedom to express her evangelical religion. She hopes he follows in his father’s footsteps.

“I voted for his father, and I don’t regret it,” she said.

The proximity to his father was what worried Lorena Zschaber, a 40-year-old photographer, who watched the results roll in at an LGBTQ+-friendly bar in downtown Rio de Janeiro. During his father’s presidency, “people felt more at ease to discriminate,” she said.

“I’m an LGBTQ+ woman. I can’t think of anything worse happening than Flávio Bolsonaro being elected,” she added.

Rosângela Resende da Rocha, a 69-year-old who was previously a stay-at-home mom, said she supported Lula’s social policies that help the “less fortunate” and how he stands up to Trump.

“That crazy guy wants to come in here to buy our country, so that our country will be like it is over there,” she said of Trump, while at a voting center in Brasilia. “He won’t succeed if Lula wins.”

No significant fraud has ever been detected since Brazil adopted its electronic voting system in the 1990s.

The Organization of American States’ electoral observation mission reported Sunday that “the voting has been going smoothly and under adequate safety conditions.” Electoral authorities have assured that electronic votes are secure and verifiable.

Bolsonaro, like his father before him, has tried to undermine Brazilians’ confidence in the integrity of the voting system.

Voters appeared largely confident that the system can’t be tampered with.

Josemar Lauriano Pereira, a 46-year-old lawyer in Rio de Janeiro, said that the rapid availability of results helped combat fraud and uncertainty.

“When results take a lot of time, it creates an opening for people to cast doubt on the results, to say there’s been a problem,” he said.

Savarese, Hughes and Brigida write for the Associated Press. Hughes reported from Rio de Janeiro and Brigida from Brasilia.

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