Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Quietly Shifts With Youngest Voters

U.S.NewsPoliticsTechFact CheckSportsGlobalIran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsAutomotiveRelationshipsScienceHealthPersonal FinanceBetter WorkplacesReaders ChoiceOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthFinanceProductsEducationWorkplacesCorporate ResponsibilityAll RankingsWatchThe 1600The Royal ReportUnconventionalFrom The PaddockNewsmakersExtraNewslettersDare to DreamEventsEssaysPodcastsVantageInsightsMagazineCEO CircleAnnouncementsLeadershipDev Pragad President Donald Trump’s approval among voters aged 18 to 24 rose from 25 percent in July to 41 percent in September, according to a Newsweek analysis of Harvard/Harris polling. The shift challenges the idea that young Americans who backed the president in 2024 are uniformly moving away from him before the midterm elections. Republicans could benefit if improving sentiment produces votes, although younger adults have historically participated at lower rates than older Americans in midterm elections, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. And an August 28-31 Economist/YouGov poll of 1,592 U.S. adult citizens, with a plus or minus 3.5 percent margin of error, found that 34 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said they would definitely participate in the midterms, compared with 78 percent of Americans aged 65 and older. Speaking to Newsweek about the Harvard/Harris polling, Melissa R. Michelson, interim chief academic officer and dean of arts and sciences at Menlo College, suggested that this demographic could regret voting for Trump while still reporting improved approval of his job performance. “It is possible that some young adults are rethinking their opposition to Trump in response to the approaching election,” she said. A heavier flow of political information through social media may be “triggering their partisanship,” Michelson added. She also raised the possibility that voters experiencing discomfort about their earlier choice could resolve that tension by deciding the president is performing well. The White House insists that “the ultimate poll” was November 5, 2024, when Americans “overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda,” and points to his efforts to “create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability” as evidence of “historic progress.” Newsweek emailed the White House for further comment on Friday morning and was awaiting a response at the time of writing. Why It Matters Young voters have become an unpredictable part of Trump’s coalition, combining economic anxiety with weaker party loyalties and lower turnout. Approval can shape enthusiasm, but it does not guarantee that someone will cast a ballot. Three Key Points To Know By The Numbers The latest Harvard/Harris survey found 41 percent of registered voters aged 18 to 24 approved of Trump’s job performance, while 54 percent disapproved, leaving him underwater by 13 points. That poll was conducted online by The Harris Poll and HarrisX from September 26 to 28 among 2,200 registered voters. Its full-sample margin of error was plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. August’s results put approval within the same group at 38 percent and disapproval at 57 percent, giving a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -19 percentage points. Fieldwork ran from August 28 to 30 among 2,100 registered voters, with a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 points. In July, only 25 percent of those aged 18 to 24 approved, against 67 percent who disapproved, yielding a -42 percentage point net approval rating. The online survey of 1,776 registered voters was conducted July 11 and 12 and carried a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 points. Taken together, the sequence shows Trump moving from his weakest age category to a better approval position than voters aged 55 and older, who gave him a 39 percent approval rating and a 58 percent disapproval rating—giving a net rating of -19. He remains unpopular with most members of the 18-to-24 group, but the depth of opposition has narrowed substantially. Because the margins of error cover the full samples rather than the smaller 18-to-24 groups, some of the apparent movement may reflect greater uncertainty or changes in who was surveyed each month. Why Young Voters May Be Reconsidering Trump Michelson said some young adults may have felt negatively about the country’s direction earlier in the summer and consequently questioned their past backing for Trump. That reaction can create cognitive dissonance, she said, because acknowledging that a previous vote may have been a mistake can conflict with a person’s self-esteem. “Deciding instead that Trump is doing a good job, and thus that their vote was not a mistake, is a way to make themselves feel better and maintain a positive self-image,” she told Newsweek. Her interpretation offers a possible explanation for how favorable movement and electoral regret could emerge within the same generation. It does not establish that this psychological process caused the change recorded by Harvard/Harris. The evidence also leaves open whether the rise reflects increased enthusiasm among young Republicans, disengagement among Democratic-leaning adults or differences in who responded to each survey. Michelson said the available figures do not allow those possibilities to be separated. Economic Concerns Remain The figures cannot determine whether employment, wages, rent, student debt, gasoline prices or living arrangements drove the movement. Drawing on her experience with students at Menlo College, however, Michelson said young adults are largely preoccupied with the same pressures affecting older Americans. “They are mostly concerned about the same issues that older voters are concerned about: affordability, the cost of gas, the cost of rent, and their ability to get good-paying jobs,” she said. “They are worried about what is happening to the economy.” That observation complicates the theory that people still living with parents are insulated from higher household costs. A Different Poll Found Trump Regret The Harvard/Harris pattern contrasts with an earlier Navigator survey in which 31 percent of Generation Z respondents who supported Trump in 2024 said they regretted their decision. His approval among Gen Z in that research stood at 33 percent, below millennials, Generation X and baby boomers. Navigator questioned 3,000 registered voters from June 4 through July 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. The findings are not directly comparable because the surveys used different age definitions and fieldwork periods. Nor does regret over a past choice automatically amount to current disapproval. But the contrasting results suggest young voters’ attitudes toward Trump remain unsettled rather than moving uniformly in either direction. What It Could Mean For The Midterms Improved presidential approval matters politically only if it affects participation or candidate choice. Michelson noted that midterm turnout often rises among people who are unhappy and want to produce change. Since young adults are generally less likely to participate, becoming less dissatisfied with Trump could leave even fewer motivated to cast ballots. Republicans therefore face the task of converting warmer sentiment into urgency. Michelson pointed to Trump’s efforts to encourage supporters to act as though he were personally on the ballot. Framing Republican congressional victories as necessary to advance his policies, she said, could motivate younger and older members of his coalition alike. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and Emma Lee-SangBy Sam StevensonAssociate News Editor

0ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.President Donald Trump’s approval among voters aged 18 to 24 rose from 25 percent in July to 41 percent in September, according to a Newsweek analysis of Harvard/Harris polling.

The shift challenges the idea that young Americans who backed the president in 2024 are uniformly moving away from him before the midterm elections.

Republicans could benefit if improving sentiment produces votes, although younger adults have historically participated at lower rates than older Americans in midterm elections, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

And an August 28-31 Economist/YouGov poll of 1,592 U.S. adult citizens, with a plus or minus 3.5 percent margin of error, found that 34 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said they would definitely participate in the midterms, compared with 78 percent of Americans aged 65 and older.

Speaking to Newsweek about the Harvard/Harris polling, Melissa R. Michelson, interim chief academic officer and dean of arts and sciences at Menlo College, suggested that this demographic could regret voting for Trump while still reporting improved approval of his job performance.

“It is possible that some young adults are rethinking their opposition to Trump in response to the approaching election,” she said.

A heavier flow of political information through social media may be “triggering their partisanship,” Michelson added.

She also raised the possibility that voters experiencing discomfort about their earlier choice could resolve that tension by deciding the president is performing well.

The White House insists that “the ultimate poll” was November 5, 2024, when Americans “overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda,” and points to his efforts to “create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability” as evidence of “historic progress.”

Newsweek emailed the White House for further comment on Friday morning and was awaiting a response at the time of writing.

Young voters have become an unpredictable part of Trump’s coalition, combining economic anxiety with weaker party loyalties and lower turnout.

Approval can shape enthusiasm, but it does not guarantee that someone will cast a ballot.

The latest Harvard/Harris survey found 41 percent of registered voters aged 18 to 24 approved of Trump’s job performance, while 54 percent disapproved, leaving him underwater by 13 points.

That poll was conducted online by The Harris Poll and HarrisX from September 26 to 28 among 2,200 registered voters. Its full-sample margin of error was plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

August’s results put approval within the same group at 38 percent and disapproval at 57 percent, giving a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -19 percentage points.

Fieldwork ran from August 28 to 30 among 2,100 registered voters, with a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 points.

In July, only 25 percent of those aged 18 to 24 approved, against 67 percent who disapproved, yielding a -42 percentage point net approval rating.

The online survey of 1,776 registered voters was conducted July 11 and 12 and carried a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 points.

Taken together, the sequence shows Trump moving from his weakest age category to a better approval position than voters aged 55 and older, who gave him a 39 percent approval rating and a 58 percent disapproval rating—giving a net rating of -19.

He remains unpopular with most members of the 18-to-24 group, but the depth of opposition has narrowed substantially.

Because the margins of error cover the full samples rather than the smaller 18-to-24 groups, some of the apparent movement may reflect greater uncertainty or changes in who was surveyed each month.

Michelson said some young adults may have felt negatively about the country’s direction earlier in the summer and consequently questioned their past backing for Trump.

That reaction can create cognitive dissonance, she said, because acknowledging that a previous vote may have been a mistake can conflict with a person’s self-esteem.

“Deciding instead that Trump is doing a good job, and thus that their vote was not a mistake, is a way to make themselves feel better and maintain a positive self-image,” she told Newsweek.

Her interpretation offers a possible explanation for how favorable movement and electoral regret could emerge within the same generation.

It does not establish that this psychological process caused the change recorded by Harvard/Harris.

The evidence also leaves open whether the rise reflects increased enthusiasm among young Republicans, disengagement among Democratic-leaning adults or differences in who responded to each survey.

Michelson said the available figures do not allow those possibilities to be separated.

The figures cannot determine whether employment, wages, rent, student debt, gasoline prices or living arrangements drove the movement.

Drawing on her experience with students at Menlo College, however, Michelson said young adults are largely preoccupied with the same pressures affecting older Americans.

“They are mostly concerned about the same issues that older voters are concerned about: affordability, the cost of gas, the cost of rent, and their ability to get good-paying jobs,” she said.

“They are worried about what is happening to the economy.”

That observation complicates the theory that people still living with parents are insulated from higher household costs.

The Harvard/Harris pattern contrasts with an earlier Navigator survey in which 31 percent of Generation Z respondents who supported Trump in 2024 said they regretted their decision.

His approval among Gen Z in that research stood at 33 percent, below millennials, Generation X and baby boomers.

Navigator questioned 3,000 registered voters from June 4 through July 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

The findings are not directly comparable because the surveys used different age definitions and fieldwork periods.

Nor does regret over a past choice automatically amount to current disapproval.

But the contrasting results suggest young voters’ attitudes toward Trump remain unsettled rather than moving uniformly in either direction.

Improved presidential approval matters politically only if it affects participation or candidate choice.

Michelson noted that midterm turnout often rises among people who are unhappy and want to produce change.

Since young adults are generally less likely to participate, becoming less dissatisfied with Trump could leave even fewer motivated to cast ballots.

Republicans therefore face the task of converting warmer sentiment into urgency.

Michelson pointed to Trump’s efforts to encourage supporters to act as though he were personally on the ballot.

Framing Republican congressional victories as necessary to advance his policies, she said, could motivate younger and older members of his coalition alike.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to help produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Sam Stevenson and Emma Lee-Sang