Fears for future of schools as city’s pupil numbers set to drop by 17%

HomeNewsUS & CanadaUKUK PoliticsEnglandN. IrelandN. Ireland PoliticsScotlandScotland PoliticsWalesWales PoliticsAfricaAsiaChinaIndiaAustraliaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastIn PicturesBBC InDepthBBC VerifySportBusinessWorld of BusinessTechnology of BusinessNYSE Opening BellTechnologyWatch DocumentariesArtificial IntelligenceIntelligence RevolutionAI v the MindTech NowHealthWatch DocumentariesCultureWatch DocumentariesFilm & TVMusicArt & DesignStyleBooksEntertainment NewsArtsWatch DocumentariesArts in MotionTravelWatch DocumentariesDestinationsAfricaAntarcticaAsiaAustralia and PacificCaribbean & BermudaCentral AmericaEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaSouth AmericaWorld’s TableCulture & ExperiencesAdventuresThe SpeciaListTo the Ends of the Earth EarthWatch DocumentariesScienceNatural WondersClimate SolutionsSustainable BusinessGreen LivingAudioPodcast CategoriesRadioAudio FAQsVideoWatch DocumentariesBBC MaestroDiscover the WorldLiveLive NewsLive SportDocumentariesSite searchHomeNewsSportBusinessTechnologyHealthCultureArtsTravelEarthAudioVideoLiveDocumentariesWeatherNewslettersFears for future of schools as city's pupil numbers set to drop by 17% minutes agoShareSaveAdd as preferred on GoogleRichard Youle,Local Democracy Reporting ServiceandAntonia Matthews,BBC WalesGetty ImagesThere are question marks over the long-term sustainability of some schools due to an estimated drop in pupilsPupil numbers in Swansea are forecast to fall by more than 5,000 in six years, challenging the long-term viability of some schools.

Education officers have modelled the wider declining birth rate with specific data for the city and estimate there will be 26,678 primary and secondary pupils in 2032 compared to 32,028 now – a drop of 5,350 or 17%.

Robert Smith, Swansea council's cabinet member for education and learning, said forecasting wasn't an exact science, but that the figures "are as robust as they can be".

Experts have warned that a projected 15% reduction in Welsh pupils between 2025-2041 may mean more closures or mergers and a quarter of school places unfilled in some councils in 2024.

A report for Swansea council said the demographic trend presented significant challenges for education planning, funding, and the long-term sustainability of some schools, according to the Local Democracy Reporting Service.

Primary and secondary schools with fewer than 90 and 600 pupils respectively are defined by the council as "very small" and faced particular pressures, said the report, when they operated at below those thresholds due to limited economies-of-scale and reduced pupil-led funding.

Also, if a primary school fell below 90 pupils it would no longer be funded for a deputy head teacher.

The report said several primaries operated at or close to the 90-pupil threshold in Swansea while one secondary was close to the 600-pupil threshold.

Mike Day said during a previous period of school reorganisation in Swansea it would have been cheaper to send pupils from a particular small school to Eton.

A council education manager, when asked if any primaries currently had fewer than 90 pupils, said Knelston Primary School, Gower, had come close but had regained some ground.

"That's probably the closest we have seen going below 90," she said.

The projected 5,350-pupil decline consists of an estimated 3,968 drop at primary level and 1,382 drop at secondary, with a lower proportion of reductions at Welsh-language schools.

Low birth rates have caused pupil numbers to plunge in Blaenau Gwent too, where councillors voted to close Roseheyworth Primary School campus over the summer, part of the Abertillery Learning Community, citing budget pressures and shrinking school rolls.

Pembrokeshire council also said last year it had an ageing population, with pupil numbers falling by more than 2,000 since 1996, including a "significant decline" in pupil numbers in the Preseli and Tenby areas.

The report for Swansea said ways of coping with the decline could include more community use of school buildings, smaller class sizes, and ensuring investment "is targeted towards sustainable provision".

Day said engagement with all relevant groups was critical if further reorganisation was to take place.

He recalled a consultation with parents who overwhelmingly backed the idea of removing surplus places "but you can imagine what happened then when a proposal was put forward to close a particular school".

Lyndon Jones, who heads the education scrutiny panel, requested a breakdown of the estimated pupil decline on a school-by-school basis.

Smith said schools viewed as small in Swansea might be seen as medium-sized in rural council areas.

He recalled visiting a rural school once with five or six pupils and seeing them all sitting at the same table for lunch.

"The older children were teaching the younger ones how to use a knife and fork," he said.

"Take away the sentiment of that, there were all sorts of issues about not just the cost which was immense but also what kind of experience were you able to offer children in a school that small. We are not facing that issue in Swansea."