Ghana’s crude oil production continues its steady downward trajectory as the country’s main producing fields enter natural depletion phases after more than a decade of operation, with output potentially dropping nearly 50 percent from peak levels by year end. The Public Interest and Accountability Committee has confirmed that aging reservoirs, particularly Jubilee and TEN fields, are experiencing inevitable production declines that threaten petroleum revenues contributing approximately 10 percent of government income.
Isaac Dwamena, Head of the PIAC Secretariat, explained during an interview on JoyNews’ PM Express Business Edition on October 14 that Ghana’s flagship Jubilee Field is now past the midpoint of its estimated 25 to 30 year lifespan after beginning production on December 15, 2010. The field has entered a natural decline phase consistent with petroleum reservoir dynamics, where extraction becomes progressively more difficult and expensive as accessible reserves diminish.
Ghana recorded its highest crude oil output of 71 million barrels in 2019, representing the peak of production capacity from its three offshore fields. By the end of 2024, total output had fallen to 48 million barrels, marking a significant retreat from the 2019 high. Current figures for 2025 point to an even steeper decline, with only 18 million barrels produced in the first half of the year.
Even if production in the second half matches the first six months, Ghana’s total 2025 output would reach approximately 36 million barrels. That projection represents nearly a 50 percent decline over just six years, underscoring the severity of reservoir depletion across Ghana’s producing fields. The drop carries serious implications for government revenues and energy sector planning.
Dwamena emphasized that petroleum is fundamentally a finite, exhaustible resource subject to unavoidable depletion dynamics. As companies extract oil from underground reservoirs, accessible reserves diminish and remaining deposits become harder to recover profitably. This natural decline pattern affects all oil fields worldwide, regardless of extraction technology sophistication.
Advanced recovery techniques can slow production declines but cannot prevent them indefinitely. Even with the most sophisticated technology, Dwamena noted, operators can typically recover only 35 to 40 percent of oil reserves actually present underground. The remaining 60 to 65 percent stays trapped in rock formations, too dispersed or difficult to extract economically.
The Jubilee Field has benefited from two major investment projects designed to sustain production despite natural depletion. The Greater Jubilee Development came online between 2013 and 2015, while the Jubilee South East project began producing last year. These interventions helped slow the rate of decline by accessing previously untapped reservoir sections and improving extraction efficiency from existing wells.
Without these substantial reinvestments, Dwamena stated, the Jubilee Field would have recorded far lower production numbers than current levels. The investments demonstrate that maintaining output from aging fields requires continuous capital deployment, sophisticated reservoir management, and willingness from operators to pursue incremental production opportunities that may offer lower returns than initial development phases.
The TEN Field, comprising Tweneboa, Enyenra, and Ntomme offshore deposits, follows similar depletion patterns. Production from TEN dropped 31.8 percent in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, falling from 3.45 million barrels to 2.35 million barrels. Average daily output declined from 19,069 barrels per day to 13,022 barrels per day over the same period.
Sankofa Gye Nyame Field experienced the smallest decline among Ghana’s three producing fields, with output falling 11.6 percent to 4.42 million barrels in the first half of 2025 compared to 5.00 million barrels during the equivalent 2024 period. However, as a predominantly gas producing field, SGN contributes less to crude oil totals while playing a more significant role in natural gas supply for power generation.
The production decline translates directly into reduced petroleum revenues for government. Total petroleum receipts plummeted 56 percent from $840.7 million in the first half of 2024 to just $370.3 million during the corresponding period of 2025. Lower production volumes combined with weaker global oil prices to squeeze income from Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector.
This revenue contraction poses serious fiscal challenges given petroleum’s contribution to government finances. Oil revenues fund critical sectors including education, infrastructure development, and healthcare through the Annual Budget Funding Amount mechanism established under the Petroleum Revenue Management Act. A 56 percent revenue decline forces difficult budget decisions across these priority areas.
PIAC’s analysis reveals a troubling underlying issue beyond natural field depletion: Ghana has failed to attract new exploration investment in recent years. No new petroleum agreement has been signed since 2018, indicating weak investor confidence in Ghana’s upstream potential or concerns about fiscal terms, regulatory environment, or geological prospectivity.
As of June 2025, Ghana maintained just 13 active petroleum agreements, with only three fields currently producing. The Deepwater Tano/Cape Three Points block has received approval for its Plan of Development but field work has yet to commence. Other contract areas remain at varying exploration stages with no guarantee of commercial viability, leaving Ghana heavily dependent on aging fields for all current production.
Drilling activity slowed during the first half of 2025, further underscoring the sector’s loss of momentum. Exploration drilling identifies new reserves that can offset depletion in existing fields, but reduced activity means fewer discoveries and longer timelines before any new production comes online. The exploration slowdown reflects broader industry caution about investing in African frontier markets amid global energy transition pressures.
Dwamena warned that declining production poses serious risks to Ghana’s petroleum revenue stream and urged government to treat PIAC’s findings with appropriate seriousness. Reversing the production decline requires attracting fresh investment into exploration and development, maintaining positive relationships with existing operators, and ensuring fiscal terms remain competitive with alternative investment opportunities in other petroleum provinces.
The production crisis occurs against the backdrop of shifting global energy dynamics as major investors redirect capital toward renewable energy and away from fossil fuel projects. Large institutional investors including pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are reducing exposure to oil and gas companies due to environmental concerns and long term transition risks, making capital for exploration and production projects scarcer.
Some positive developments offer modest optimism. Italian energy company Eni declared commerciality for the Eban Akoma offshore development in July 2025, indicating continued interest in Ghana’s petroleum potential. Tullow Oil and partners secured license extensions for the Jubilee and TEN fields, suggesting operators remain willing to invest in sustaining production from existing assets despite depletion challenges.
However, converting exploration success and license extensions into sustained production increases requires substantial investment and effective field management. The lag between discoveries and commercial production means near term revenue improvements remain uncertain even when new finds occur. Ghana needs multiple new discoveries reaching production phase to meaningfully offset declines in Jubilee and TEN.
PIAC emphasized the urgent need for strategic review of Ghana’s upstream petroleum operations, particularly fields like TEN struggling to maintain output while incurring high operating costs. Strengthening field management, attracting fresh investment, and accelerating exploration of promising blocks could help reverse production declines, but require coordinated action across multiple government agencies and sustained engagement with international oil companies.
The committee also raised concerns about operational challenges beyond geological depletion. Unpaid surface rental arrears climbed to $2.82 million by mid 2025 compared to just $439,011 at the same time last year, despite repeated recovery efforts by the Ghana Revenue Authority. This accumulation suggests systemic compliance problems within the sector that undermine government revenue collection.
Production shutdowns for scheduled maintenance contributed to first half 2025 declines. The Jubilee Field experienced planned shutdown activities between March 26 to 31, with continuation of shutdown work from April 1 to 8. These operational interruptions, while necessary for equipment maintenance and safety, temporarily reduce output and complicate production forecasting.
The Ghana National Petroleum Corporation faces particular financial strain from declining output. GNPC’s total allocation from oil producing fields dropped to $65.26 million in the first six months of 2025, representing a seven year low for the state oil company. Despite receiving no revenue from the TEN Field during this period, GNPC spent $2.45 million to meet equity financing obligations for TEN, requiring the corporation to draw on limited resources to cover costs in a field currently yielding no returns.
This cash flow squeeze raises questions about GNPC’s capacity to fulfill its mandate as national oil company and participate meaningfully in future petroleum projects. The corporation’s financial weakness limits government’s ability to leverage petroleum resources for national development if the state entity lacks resources to fund its equity participation in new discoveries or field developments.
Looking ahead, Dwamena expressed cautious optimism that the 2035 production viability window still provides time to attract new investors and reverse declining trends. However, he warned that failure to act swiftly could deepen the production decline and permanently limit Ghana’s petroleum revenue potential as fields approach economic exhaustion without replacement reserves identified and developed.
The challenge confronting Ghana mirrors dynamics facing mature petroleum provinces worldwide. As initial discoveries age and deplete, countries must continually identify and develop new reserves to maintain production levels and associated revenues. This replacement process requires sustained exploration investment, favorable geological conditions, competitive fiscal terms, and operational environments that attract international capital and expertise.
Ghana’s petroleum story, which began with tremendous optimism following the Jubilee discovery in 2007, now enters a more challenging phase. The country must decide whether to pursue aggressive strategies for sustaining petroleum production through exploration incentives and field development support, or accept declining output as the sector plays a diminishing role in national revenues while energy transition priorities advance.
For now, natural reservoir depletion continues driving down production from Ghana’s aging oil fields. Without significant new discoveries reaching production phase or major interventions to enhance recovery from existing reservoirs, the downward trajectory appears likely to persist, forcing difficult adjustments in government budgets dependent on petroleum revenues that once seemed secure for decades.