The Head of Finance at UMB Capital, Nelson Cudjoe Kuagbedzi, has projected that the Ghanaian Cedi will stabilise within the range of GHS11 to GHS12 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2025, contrary to projections by Fitch and other analysts forecasting a return to GHS15.
The Cedi, between January and late May 2025, appreciated from approximately GHS 15.00 to GHS 10.20 per USD, reflecting a cumulative gain of about 32%.
Speaking on the Citi Breakfast Show on Monday, June 2, 2025, Kuagbedzi said while the local currency has shown strong appreciation in recent months, it is not expected to continue strengthening indefinitely.
Expanding on his point, Cudjoe Kuagbedzi explained that the government has yet to undertake any major spending, which has helped ease pressure on the Cedi.
He added that unless large-scale expenditures resume, the Cedi is expected to stabilise within the GHS11 to GHS12 range.
“We don’t expect the Cedi to appreciate throughout the year; at a point, it will stagnate, and actually settle within a band. I do not agree with the projection by Fitch and others, saying that the Cedi will stagnate at Ghc15 by the end of the year.
“Within the short term, you will realise that the government is trying to build enough reserves to meet the demand of those who need the forex.
“Again, the government has not started paying out its payables, because those payables are still under audit. Even though we have not started servicing debts yet, since they came to power. So, we expect that once those expenditures set in, the currency will begin to shake again.
“We don’t expect it to go beyond Gh12 by the end of the year. I expect the Cedi to stabilise with the band of Ghc11 or Ghc12 by the close of the year.
“Currently, the government is embarking on a contractionary Economic Policy. They are not spending on or starting any mega project. So, there is enough reserve with the Bank of Ghana. As soon as they start spending, you will see that the Cedi will begin to shake. But it will stagnate within the band of Ghc11 by the end of the year,” he stated.
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