Nigeria’s Crude Oil Production Falls in October as Dangote Refinery Faces Supply Challenges

According to a report by daily Post, Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production dropped slightly in October 2026, raising fresh concerns about the country’s oil output and its ability to supply enough crude oil to the Dangote Refinery.

According to a report by Daily Post, Nigeria recorded an average production of 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd) in October, compared with 1.71 million barrels per day recorded in September.

The latest figures were disclosed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in a statement issued by its spokesperson, Eniola Akinkuotu.

Despite the decline, the commission confirmed that Nigeria achieved its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota for the sixth consecutive month.

The NUPRC explained that the country’s daily oil production reached a peak of 1.79 million barrels per day during October, while the lowest output recorded within the same period was 1.60 million barrels per day.

The figures showed that Nigeria’s production declined by approximately 30,000 barrels per day compared with September. This represents a decrease of about 1.75 per cent on a month-on-month basis.

A review of production figures from previous months showed that Nigeria produced 1.70 million barrels per day in May, 1.73 million in June, 1.677 million in July, 1.677 million in August and 1.71 million in September before dropping to 1.68 million barrels per day in October.

However, when condensate is excluded, Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at an average of 1.51 million barrels per day in October.

This means the country achieved approximately 101 per cent of its OPEC crude oil production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, the latest production figures have brought renewed attention to the challenges facing the Dangote Refinery over crude oil supply.

The refinery, which has an installed capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, requires a substantial volume of crude oil to support its operations. However, Nigeria has continued to struggle to provide enough domestic crude oil to meet its daily requirements.

Barely a month ago, the Minister of Finance reportedly admitted that the country did not have sufficient crude oil to satisfy the refinery’s needs.

Available figures indicate that the Dangote Refinery imports between 20 and 22 per cent of its crude oil requirements, while locally supplied crude accounts for approximately 78 to 80 per cent.

The refinery receives most of its domestic crude oil through the Nigerian government, mainly through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

The situation highlights the challenges facing Nigeria’s oil sector despite the country meeting its OPEC production target.

Although achieving the quota is a positive development, maintaining stable production and ensuring adequate domestic supply remain important issues for the government and the country’s refining industry.

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