Ruto, Sifuna Tie at 31% in New 2027 Presidential Opinion Poll

President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna /HANDOUTPresident William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are tied as Kenyans’ preferred candidates for the 2027 presidential election, according to an opinion poll released by Trends Insight for Africa (TIFA) on Thursday.

The survey places both leaders at 31 per cent, highlighting significant shifts in voter preferences ahead of the next General Election.

The survey was conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,036 respondents across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western. Interviews were conducted mainly in Kiswahili, with some in English.

The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.16 per cent, although this is higher for smaller sub-samples.

Sifuna’s rating has risen sharply from zero in August 2022, September 2025 and November 2025 to 10 per cent in May 2026, 15 per cent in June and 31 per cent in November.

Ruto’s support has grown more steadily. He polled 16 per cent in September 2025 and 19 per cent in November 2025. His rating rose to 24 per cent in May and June 2026 before reaching 31 per cent in the latest survey.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who previously topped the preference rankings, recorded the steepest decline among the prominent presidential hopefuls.

Matiang’i’s support fell from 32 per cent in August 2022 to 21 per cent in September 2025, 18 per cent in November 2025 and 14 per cent in both May and June 2026. His rating dropped further to five per cent in November 2026.

Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, who peaked at 25 per cent in November 2025, has also lost ground. His support fell to 19 per cent in May 2026, 13 per cent in June and nine per cent in the latest survey.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s rating has weakened after reaching nine per cent in May 2026. He recorded two per cent in August 2022, six per cent in September 2025, three per cent in November 2025, seven per cent in June 2026 and four per cent in November.

Support for other potential candidates has declined from a peak of 14 per cent in September 2025 to one per cent in the latest survey.

Undecided respondents accounted for 15 per cent in November, down from 20 per cent in June. Those who gave no response stood at four per cent, remaining relatively low and stable.

However, the figures represent respondents’ stated preferences at the time of the survey and are not a prediction of the eventual election outcome. Political alliances, campaign platforms, candidate declarations and developments before the polls could reshape the contest.

Sifuna’s rise to the joint top position is notable because he did not register measurable support in the earlier survey periods. His latest rating places him ahead of established presidential hopefuls Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua.

For Ruto, the result marks an improvement from the 24 per cent recorded in June 2026, suggesting a rise in stated support as the country moves closer to the 2027 General Election.

The poll provides an early snapshot of a fluid presidential race, with the two leaders sharing the top position as support for other aspirants remains considerably lower nationally.