Global InfoAnalytics Projects 2028 Parliamentary Shifts For NDC And NPP

According to recent reports, Research firm Global InfoAnalytics has released its inaugural Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) model projection for Ghana’s 2028 parliamentary elections, predicting a notable shift in legislative dynamics between the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP).

According to the forecast, the NDC could see its parliamentary presence shrink from 185 seats won in the 2024 general elections down to 154 seats. Despite a projected net loss of 29 seats, the governing party is still expected to maintain its working majority in the 276-member Parliament by securing roughly 55.8% of the overall seats.

Conversely, the NPP is projected to expand its parliamentary representation from 88 seats to 100 seats, reflecting a potential gain of 12 constituencies and bringing its share of Parliament to 36.2%.

The remaining 22 constituencies leave room for further movement. Global InfoAnalytics categorized 20 seats (7.2%) as undisclosed across several regions—led by five in the Eastern Region and four in the Ashanti Region—while classifying two seats (0.7%) in the Ashanti and Bono regions as toss-ups.

While the data points toward a narrower parliamentary majority for the NDC in 2028, researchers stress that the projections remain subject to evolving political and economic factors leading up to the polls.

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