NGX Closes October Strong Amid Positive Corporate Earnings, Exhausted Technicals

The Nigerian equities market ended the month of October 2026 on a bullish note, recovering strongly in the final week after four consecutive weeks of losses, amid renewed buying interests in selected heavyweights, particularly within the industrial sector and others. These supported the late-month rebound and lifted the benchmark index above the 254,000-point mark. Despite the recovery, market breadth remained weak, reflecting the uneven distribution of gains across listed equities. NGX performance during the month was characterised by alternating bouts of profit-taking and bargain hunting. While investors remained cautious amid mixed corporate and macroeconomic developments, increased activity in selected banking stocks helped sustain liquidity and drive the market’s final-week rally.

The rally followed four consecutive weekly declines, during which the market lost ground amid sustained selling pressure and portfolio adjustments. Across the five reported weekly periods, total turnover stood at approximately 14.57 billion shares valued at N1.18 trillion in 966,531 deals. The final week accounted for a significant proportion of the aggregate volume and value, highlighting the impact of concentrated trading in a few highly active stocks. The increase in turnover also suggested stronger market participation towards the end of the reporting period, although the concentration of activity limited the breadth of the recovery.

On the economic front, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 14.63% in September 2026 from 15.39% in August, indicating a moderation in annual price pressures. Month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.06% from 0.71%, while food inflation declined by 1.55%. Annual core inflation stood at 12.95%, although monthly core inflation increased by 1.11%, compared with a decline of 0.06% in the previous month. The moderation in inflation could provide some relief to households and businesses, while also influencing expectations around monetary policy and investment returns. However, the increase in monthly core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain a concern. For the equities market, the direction of inflation and interest rates will remain important in determining the relative attractiveness of fixed-income securities and risk assets.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s Business Confidence Index moderated to 13.4 points in September from 14.8 points in August, while the Purchasing Managers’ Index remained in expansion territory at 53.0 points. Despite the expansion, businesses continued to identify insecurity, multiple taxation and elevated borrowing costs as major operating challenges. These factors could affect production costs, corporate earnings and investment decisions in the coming months.

Nigeria also improved its position in Bloomberg’s 2026 Investment Risk-O-Meter, moving up four places to eighth position and overtaking Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and

Namibia. The improvement was linked to economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation and electricity tariff adjustments. However, rising public debt and fiscal sustainability remain important risks that could influence investor confidence.

From a technical perspective, the market’s late-month recovery strengthened the short-term outlook after four consecutive weekly declines. The rebound above the 250,000-point psychological level and the subsequent close at 254,299.49 points indicate renewed buying interest, particularly in heavyweight equities. The increase in trading activity during the final week also suggests that investors were more willing to reposition their portfolios.

The 247,000-point region remains an important near-term support area, based on the market’s recent weekly closing levels, while the 254,000-point zone represents immediate resistance. A sustained break above this resistance could encourage further buying and open the way for additional gains. However, failure to maintain the recent advance could expose the market to renewed profit-taking and consolidation.

The market’s next direction will likely depend on the sustainability of demand for large-cap stocks, corporate earnings releases,dividend expectations, liquidity conditions and monetary policy developments. Investors may continue to favour companies with strong fundamentals, consistent earnings, attractive valuations and reliable dividend prospects. Nevertheless, the heavy concentration of trading activity in a few financial stocks and the relatively weak market breadth suggest that the rally should be approached with caution.

Overall, the Nigerian equities market ended the reporting period with a strong recovery, supported by renewed interest in heavyweight stocks and a sharp increase in trading activity during the final week. The ASI closed at 254,299.49 points, market capitalisation reached N165.114 trillion, and year-to-date return improved to 63.42%. Across the five reported weekly periods, turnover amounted to approximately 17.183 billion shares valued at N1.18 trillion in 966,531 deals. Market breadth remained negative in the month of October, with 28 gainers against 70 decliners and 65 unchanged stocks, underscoring the selective nature of the recovery.

The top five gainers for the reporting period were STERLINGNG, which advanced 891.56% to N76.35 due to share reconstruction of 1 for 10 shares; MULTITREX, up 100.00% to N0.72; LIVESTOCK, which gained 64.20% to N13.30; ETRANZACT, up 33.61% to N16.30; and DANGCEM, which appreciated by 33.12% to N1,420.00.

On the losing side, CMFC declined 30.56% to N3.00, FIRSTHOLDCO fell 25.48% to N119.15, CORNERST dropped 18.75% to N4.55, ZICHIS shed 16.28% to N16.66, while ELLAHLAKES lost 15.66% to close at N7.00.

Global Market and Oil: Global financial markets recorded mixed performances in October 2026 as investors responded to geopolitical tensions, corporate earnings releases, changing monetary policy expectations and concerns about elevated technology-sector valuations. While some major equity markets posted monthly gains, others experienced significant losses, particularly towards the end of the month. The crude oil market, however, recorded a strong recovery, with international benchmark prices rising by more than 13% amid renewed concerns about global supply disruptions.

Global equities reflected varying regional economic conditions, investor sentiment and sectoral exposures. In the United States, technology stocks came under considerable pressure, while major European markets generally maintained positive performances. Asian equities experienced stronger selling pressure, particularly in China, Hong Kong and Japan. Meanwhile, crude oil prices advanced on the back of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns about the security of major international shipping routes.

US Stock Market Performance Wall Street recorded mixed performances during October as investors weighed relatively strong corporate earnings against concerns about expensive technology valuations and rising artificial intelligence investment costs. Although buying interest supported selected indices during the month, a sharp sell-off in technology stocks towards the final trading session weakened overall market performance. The Nasdaq Composite emerged as one of the weakest major indices, declining approximately 5.30% to close at 25,437.00 points on October 30, compared with 26,861.06 points at the end of September.

The S&P 500 also recorded a monthly decline of 0.93%, falling from 7,651.54 points to 7,580.07 points. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.70%, closing at 51,770.31 points against 50,906.05 points in September. The Russell 2000 gained approximately 0.54%, settling at 2,811.84 points compared with its previous month’s closing level of 2,796.86 points.

The final trading session of October was particularly challenging for Wall Street. On Friday, October 30, the S&P 500 declined 1.82%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.86%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.09%. The Russell 2000 also dropped 1.66%, reflecting widespread selling pressure across the market.

Technology stocks accounted for a significant proportion of the losses. Intel plunged 28.58%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) declined 10.88% and NVIDIA shed 4.22%. The semiconductor index also recorded a substantial decline of approximately 7.2%.

Investor concerns centred on the enormous capital expenditure required to develop artificial intelligence infrastructure and uncertainty about how quickly these investments would translate into sustainable earnings and cash flows.

Despite the market weakness, corporate earnings remained relatively encouraging. Approximately 82% of the 299 S&P 500 companies that had released their third-quarter results exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations. Forecast earnings growth stood at approximately 31.6%, highlighting the contrast between corporate profitability and concerns about elevated market valuations.

European equity markets generally maintained positive performances in October, although returns varied across major economies. Improved investor sentiment during parts of the month, corporate earnings announcements and monetary policy expectations supported selected regional markets.

Germany’s DAX emerged as one of the stronger performers, advancing approximately 2.46% to close at 25,818.21 points on October 30, compared with 25,199.19 points at the end of September.

The UK’s FTSE 100 also recorded a gain of 1.17%, rising from 10,606.00 points to 10,729.78 points over the reporting period.

France’s CAC 40 remained relatively flat, adding approximately 0.06% to close at 7,969.42 points from its previous month’s closing level of 7,964.51 points.

The STOXX Europe 600 remained an important indicator of broader regional market sentiment, reflecting developments across major European economies. However, investors continued to monitor inflation, economic growth, corporate earnings and the direction of interest rates.

Overall, European equities demonstrated greater resilience than several major Asian and US technology indices during October, although concerns about global economic growth and geopolitical developments continued to influence investment decisions.

Asian equities experienced considerable pressure in October, with major markets in China, Hong Kong and Japan recording notable declines. Weakness in technology shares, changing international trade expectations and concerns about global economic conditions contributed to the cautious investment environment.

China’s Shanghai Composite recorded the weakest performance among the selected Asian indices, declining approximately 6.33% to close at 3,599.02 points on October 30, compared with 3,842.19 points at the end of September.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also recorded a significant decline of 5.36%, falling from 24,613.27 points to 23,294.42 points.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed approximately 5.19%, closing at 63,290.11 points against its previous month’s level of 66,753.72 points.

In contrast, India’s Nifty 50 recorded a positive performance, gaining approximately 1.91% to settle at 23,053.10 points from 22,620.45 points at the end of September.

The divergence in regional performance reflected differences in economic conditions, corporate earnings expectations and investor positioning. While Indian equities demonstrated relative resilience, Chinese, Hong Kong and Japanese markets faced stronger selling pressure amid changing global investment sentiment.

The international crude oil market recorded a strong rally in October 2026, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining more than 13% during the month. The upward movement was largely supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, concerns about possible disruptions to global oil supplies and uncertainty surrounding the security of major international shipping routes.

Brent crude advanced approximately 14.32% to close at $113.10 per barrel on October 30, compared with an implied September closing reference of approximately $98.91 per barrel.

Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude gained approximately 13.86%, settling at $102.95 per barrel against an implied previous-month reference of $90.42 per barrel.

The rally represented a significant recovery in international oil prices, with Brent reaching its highest level since May 1, 2026. On Friday, October 30, Brent crude advanced approximately 2.07%, reflecting renewed concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Geopolitical developments remained the dominant influence on oil market sentiment throughout the month. Escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran increased concerns about a wider regional conflict and its implications for crude production, transportation and international exports.

The Strait of Hormuz remained particularly important to market expectations because of its strategic position in global petroleum transportation. Any disruption to shipping activities in the waterway could affect a substantial proportion of internationally traded crude oil, potentially tightening global supply and pushing prices higher.

Additional concerns followed reports of attacks on energy infrastructure and oil transportation facilities in the Middle East. Developments involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces further increased uncertainty about regional supply security.

Diplomatic uncertainty also contributed to market volatility. Efforts by Qatar to facilitate negotiations between Washington and Tehran provided some hope of reducing tensions, but the absence of a lasting resolution kept geopolitical risk premiums elevated.

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors continued to assess global oil demand, production levels and the supply outlook. The balance between potential supply disruptions and concerns about global economic growth remained central to price direction.

Global financial markets are expected to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, corporate earnings, inflation figures and central bank policy decisions as investors move into November 2026.

In the United States, technology stocks will remain a major focus, particularly as investors assess whether increasing artificial intelligence expenditure can generate sufficient returns to justify current valuations. The performance of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 will also depend on corporate earnings, employment figures, inflation and expectations surrounding interest-rate adjustments.

European markets will continue to respond to regional economic growth, monetary policy expectations and corporate earnings, while developments in international trade and energy prices will remain important considerations.

In Asia, investors will closely monitor China’s economic recovery, developments in the technology sector and regional trade conditions. The ability of major Asian markets to recover from October’s losses will depend partly on improving economic sentiment and renewed foreign investment inflows.

The crude oil market, meanwhile, is likely to remain influenced by developments in the Middle East, global supply conditions and demand expectations. Further escalation of geopolitical tensions could sustain elevated prices, while successful diplomatic negotiations and improved supply conditions may moderate the current rally.

October 2026 reflected a divergence between global equity markets and the international crude oil market. While selected equity indices recorded gains, technology-heavy markets and several Asian exchanges experienced significant corrections amid concerns about valuations, artificial intelligence investment costs and global economic uncertainty.

Among the major equity indices, Germany’s DAX recorded the strongest performance, advancing 2.46%, followed by India’s Nifty 50, which gained 1.91%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.70%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 added 1.17%. The Russell 2000 gained 0.54%, while France’s CAC 40 remained broadly unchanged with a marginal 0.06% increase.

Conversely, the Nasdaq Composite declined 5.30%, followed by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which lost 5.36%, Japan’s Nikkei 225, which shed 5.19%, and China’s Shanghai Composite, which recorded a 6.33% decline. The S&P 500 also shed 0.93%.

In the energy market, Brent crude advanced 14.32% to $113.10 per barrel, while WTI gained 13.86% to $102.95 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions and concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Overall, October’s performance highlighted the growing sensitivity of global financial markets to geopolitical risks, technology valuations, corporate earnings and energy supply uncertainties. As November approaches, investors will continue to assess these developments, with particular attention on the sustainability of crude oil prices, the outlook for global inflation, corporate earnings and the ability of equity markets to recover from October’s volatility.

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