Economy: Macro is marvellous, but masses are moaning

Politics Spice Special Features Education Sex & Relationship Interview Columns Opinion Advertise with us Economy: Macro is marvellous, but masses are moaning Opinion October 30, 2026 12:06 am Fola Ojo

From a very long distance, 6,000 miles away from Abuja, I’ve always admired him. He was widely perceived as the back-stage Tax Collector for President Bola Tinubu when he served as Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee. Taiwo Oyedele is Nigeria’s Finance Minister and the main man running and coordinating the nation’s economy. His Finance Ministry ensures the government operates transparently, accountably and efficiently to bolster the country’s economic development priorities. It has never been a tough push for me to decipher that the young man is up to the task assigned to him. Oyedele is not only a numerate virtuoso, but he is also an arithmetical alchemist of sorts. Anytime he speaks home and abroad about the Nigerian economy, he makes figures sing the lullaby of our economic reality. Without a shred of doubt, the colossal connoisseur of figures built his reputation by dissecting tax codes. Now he has added another fanciful, fluffy feather to his resume, a ruthless realist!

At Chatham House in London last Wednesday, Oyedele did what Nigerian officials rarely do abroad. He told the truth. The last time I checked, the young man is not a politician. The words he spoke and the truth he divulged did not come from an opposition politician speaking on behalf of Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi. He is not a Twitter activist or a social media rabble-rousing rebel raging against the government. The finance minister himself confessed to the heart of the British establishment that Nigerian households are borrowing to eat. Oyedele, standing before investors and diplomats and taking questions from online watchers like me, said some Nigerian households now spend 120 per cent of their income on food. “In fact, there was a survey we did that shows that up to 120 per cent of household income is spent on food. Like, how do you spend 120 per cent of your income? You borrow food before the end of the month,” Oyedele said. I watched that clip multiple times because it captured, in one sentence, what many Nigerians experience daily, despite President Tinubu’s efforts to lift Nigerians out of poverty and hunger. Oyedele was not in London to lament. He came with numbers, as a savvy savant would. Inflation in Nigeria is down to 14.63 per cent from over 30 per cent last year. External reserves are at $55bn, with growth projected at 4.3 per cent in 2026. By textbook standards, these are wins this government deserves victory laps for.

“With inflation down to 14.63 per cent, external reserves at US$55bn and growth projected at 4.3 per cent in 2026, our economy is increasingly stable and resilient,” he told the audience. But then came the line that should be framed by the Ministry of Finance: “Stability is the foundation, not the destination. The real test is whether families can afford food, businesses can thrive, young people can find decent jobs.” Oyedele explained the contradiction. Poverty remains above 50 per cent, yet unemployment is officially around 5%. How is that possible? Because Nigerians are working but still poor. Oyedele called it “working poor.” That is Nigeria’s paradox in 2026. Nigeria’s macroeconomics are marvellous, but the masses keep moaning.

We see the Nigerian working poor every day. She is the tomato seller at Mile 12 who loses 60 per cent of her produce after harvest because there is no storage — a figure Oyedele himself cited. He is the Okada rider who works 12 hours but must buy N100 of morning data instead of N3,000 a month because food has taken everything. They are employed, but their income runs out before the month does. For the mother in Agege, macroeconomic stability means little if she still cannot afford that basket. For the petty pepper seller in Imesi-Ile, it’s even worse. This is why headline inflation falling faster than food inflation matters more than any chart. Oyedele put it bluntly: “Headline inflation is falling faster than the price of a basket of tomatoes, gari, and beans.” My friends, there is no doubt that Nigeria’s macroeconomy is marvellous, but the masses are moaning.

According to the first President of the United States of America, George Washington, “Agriculture is the most healthful, most useful, and most noble employment of man”. Hunger is man’s cruel adversary. Why must we allow so many people to die of hunger in a nation that boasts of plenty? How serious is Nigeria’s hunger problem? Projected acute food insecurity for 2026 is 34.7 million Nigerians at risk of crisis-level hunger or worse. Food inflation in July 2026 was 20.3 per cent. Yes, Nigeria needs to produce more food, but millions of Nigerians also lack the purchasing power to buy what is already available. A family without sufficient income can remain hungry even when markets are full of food.

The World Bank has specifically recommended reducing food inflation and expanding social protection for Nigeria’s poorest households. Why can’t we expand targeted food vouchers, reliable cash transfers, maternal and child nutrition programs, and locally sourced school meals? Oyedele was speaking about the problem of affordability at Chatham House in London. The Tinubu government must do more to ensure poor households earn enough or receive adequate support to buy food. A nation is not truly food-secure simply because its farmers produce enough food. It is food-secure when its citizens can afford to eat what its farmers produce. Hunger in Nigeria will not be defeated by cultivating more land alone. We must also cultivate better policies and put purchasing power in the hands of the poor. The country’s agricultural success should not be measured merely by the tonnes of rice, maize, cassava, or yam produced annually. It should also be measured by how many poor families can afford three nutritious meals a day. Nigeria’s greatest contradiction is not that we lack the land to grow food, but that we lack the will to keep hunger at bay and off our land.

A hungry man isn’t interested in the government’s economic statistics. He hates the boisterous talk of macro-economic victory testaments. He wants food.

And the more the government talks about the rosiness of the macro, the angrier the people get. A hungry man can do anything to survive, and hurt anyone to fill his stomach and feed his family. Hunger is not a mere humanitarian problem; it is a matter of national security, economic development, and human dignity. Nigeria must treat it as such. We can significantly increase food production, reduce food prices, and alleviate hunger among its poorest citizens. But it will require a fundamental shift from subsistence agriculture to agriculture as a national economic and food-security priority.

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