Iran prolongs talks to undermine Trump before midterms

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ExpandUS President Donald Trump mimes a golf swing at the end of a rally in support of incumbent Republican Senate candidate Roger Marshall, in Park City, Kansas, the US, on October 19 2026. Picture: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst By Parisa Hafezi

Dubai — Iran has deliberately prolonged talks with the US to try to weaken Donald Trump politically ahead of November’s US midterm elections, senior officials say, while fears of renewed military action and deep distrust of Washington have reinforced Tehran’s reluctance to strike a quick deal to end the war.

Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Tehran was convinced the US president was ready to resort to renewed attacks to try to break the stalemate in the eight-month-old war.

“Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one of the officials said. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”

Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said that, by prolonging the talks, “Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action.”

The war, which began in February when the US and its ally Israel launched strikes on Iran, has helped drive Trump’s approval rating to a record low, as polls suggest that Americans worried about high gasoline prices will punish his Republican Party in the November 3 congressional elections.

Trump has repeatedly said he expects oil prices to drop after the elections, but has not offered a detailed plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy shipping route effectively closed by Iran since the war began.

Iranian attacks both threatened and real have kept ship traffic through the strait to a trickle, while a US maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran’s oil export revenues and exacerbated growing domestic economic woes.

With Tehran refusing to make concessions it believes could benefit Trump politically, there is little chance of a breakthrough before the elections, the officials said.

Under pressure from Israel, Washington wants Iran’s decades-long nuclear programme — which Iran says is purely peaceful and Western powers allege has military dimensions — on the table from the outset.

For its part, Tehran insists that its conditions under a “seven-day plan” must be met before nuclear negotiations begin. And it offers no prospect of giving up the leverage over the Strait of Hormuz that the conflict prompted it to seize.

Iran’s foreign ministry and the US White House did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days, albeit under Iranian control, provided that Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table, with messages being exchanged through mediators.

Tehran’s view that Washington cannot be trusted to commit to diplomacy stems from the attacks on Iran that have derailed previous negotiations, one Iranian official said.

In June 2025, an Israeli attack wrecked plans for a sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. And last February, the US and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.

Maintaining a state somewhere between war and peace through the US midterms allows Iran to sustain pressure on Washington while reiterating its commitment to diplomacy.

Trump has said the US will not bomb Iran again before November 3. However, the officials said Tehran continues to expect that bombing will resume, sooner or later.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran programme at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the clerical establishment clearly wanted to hurt Trump politically.

“But the fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change … and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment,” he said.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Netanyahu on Monday, three Israeli officials said, in an unannounced visit to Israel a week before a parliamentary election in which Netanyahu’s position is at risk.

Iran’s strategy of keeping negotiations alive without rushing towards agreement comes at a cost.

Prolonged uncertainty is weighing on Iran’s already crippled economy and wearing down public patience. Thousands were killed at the turn of the year when the security forces crushed spiralling anti-government protests.

Annual inflation hit 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, and the rial currency has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July.

Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month, and remained there as of October 5, according to energy intelligence platform Vortexa.

But the leadership’s distrust of Washington extends beyond the current conflict to existential concerns. Iran believes the US has repeatedly broken agreements even when Tehran honoured its commitments, Leylaz said, leaving little confidence that any comprehensive deal would endure.

“Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” Leylaz said. “Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo.”

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