Texas Football Prediction Has Longhorns Making $50 Million Steve Sarkisian Decision

Texas has lost consecutive 27-24 games to Oklahoma and Florida, dropping to 4-2 after climbing to No. 1 in the rankings. Arch Manning’s struggles have drawn plenty of attention, but the criticism of Sarkisian’s offense isn’t going away.

Now, one national writer is predicting that another disappointing finish will lead Texas to part ways with its head coach.

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CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford made that prediction Monday, selecting a Texas coaching change as his top call for the second half of the college football season.

Crawford expects the Longhorns to finish 8-4 and move on from Sarkisian, whose program was considered a national championship contender after beating the Buckeyes.

“Sarkisian has to deliver down the stretch or the money in Austin will have an appetite for change,” Crawford wrote.

It’s a prediction, not a report of a decision by Texas officials. But the reasoning involves more than two recent losses. Crawford questioned how a roster assembled at enormous expense has struggled offensively and pointed to Sarkisian’s continued control of the play-calling.

The spending is a particular pressure point. An earlier CBS Sports investigation by Chris Hummer and John Talty placed Texas among the sport’s biggest spenders and estimated its roster cost exceeded $40 million. Sources within the program disputed that figure, so it isn’t an established payroll total.

Even with that uncertainty, expectations are obvious. Sarkisian led Texas to consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals in 2023 and 2024, followed by a 10-3 season in 2025. A projected 8-4 finish would be a major setback.

Sarkisian’s buyout is reported to be $50.15 million at the end of the season. This was after signing a new contract last year that extended him through 2031 at just over $70 million. However, the terms of his contract state that he will be owed 85% of his remaining deal, per CBS Sports.

The Longhorns have six regular-season games remaining. To finish 8-4, they’d need to go 4-2 the rest of the way against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M.

There’s little room to keep stumbling, especially with No. 7 Ole Miss coming to Austin on Saturday. The loss to Florida was particularly frustrating because Texas led 17-3 before watching the Gators rally behind a freshman quarterback.

Texas also hasn’t scored a third-quarter touchdown in five straight games, a troubling pattern for an offensive-minded head coach who continues to call his own plays.

Sarkisian acknowledged the offensive problems following the defeat, saying he needed to evaluate everything, including play design and execution.

But he hasn’t backed away from Manning, who has thrown for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions in six games. Sarkisian reaffirmed Manning as the starter Monday while demanding better play from him and the rest of the offense.

Backup KJ Lacey Jr. could receive more first-team practice repetitions, though Sarkisian stopped short of announcing a quarterback change.

The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 after beating Ohio State but have since fallen to No. 19. That’s a steep drop for a roster that began the year with championship expectations.

Crawford’s prediction would be a drastic outcome for a coach who helped restore Texas to the national conversation. Nothing indicates the school has decided to fire him. Still, another four-loss season would force a difficult discussion about why the offense hasn’t matched the talent assembled around Manning.

Shane Shoemaker Shane Shoemaker is a sports journalist covering college football and the NFL for Heavy.com. His work has also appeared in The Sporting News, Athlon Sports, USA TODAY, and ClutchPoints, along with high school sports coverage for the Marion Tribune. More about Shane Shoemaker