Fuel Subsidy Could Push Dollar To ₦4,000, Petrol To ₦2,500– Taiwo Oyedele Tells Nigerians Ahead 2027

According to Arise TV on Monday, October 19, 2026, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, warned that introducing fuel subsidies could trigger capital flight, weaken the naira and potentially increase petrol prices instead of reducing them.

Oyedele made the remarks while explaining the possible economic consequences of fuel subsidy proposals and why the government considered it necessary to provide Nigerians with data on the implications of the policy.

He said the government had examined what subsidies at different levels would mean, noting that the exchange rate remained the biggest factor influencing the prices of petroleum products.

“We then explained what a subsidy at different levels would mean. The biggest factor affecting the price of petroleum products is the exchange rate,” he said.

The minister argued that announcing plans to introduce a subsidy could affect investor confidence even before the policy was implemented. According to him, investors could move their capital elsewhere if they considered the announcement a source of economic uncertainty.

“When you announce that you want to introduce a subsidy, as is happening in Indonesia, even before you have started implementing it, capital will leave and investment will go,” Oyedele said.

He warned that such capital outflows could put additional pressure on the naira, potentially undermining the expected benefits of cheaper petrol.

“When that happens, the naira will crash,” he said.

Oyedele illustrated the possible consequences by explaining that a sharp depreciation of the naira could make imported petroleum products more expensive, even if the government intended to reduce pump prices through subsidies.

“The same subsidy you hope will bring down the cost of fuel could become the reason the price rises because the exchange rate could reach ₦3,000 or ₦4,000 to the dollar, and a litre of petrol could cost as much as ₦2,500,” he said.

The minister’s figures were presented as a warning about a possible economic outcome, rather than a statement that the exchange rate or petrol price had already reached those levels.

He also explained why the government decided to publish its assessment despite the political sensitivity surrounding fuel subsidy discussions.

“We needed to put the data out, and that was what we did,” Oyedele said.

His remarks came amid continuing debate over the removal of petrol subsidies and calls by some politicians for measures to reduce fuel prices and ease the cost-of-living crisis.

Fuel prices have significant effects on transportation, food distribution, manufacturing and other business activities in Nigeria. However, subsidy proposals also raise questions about government expenditure, foreign exchange demand and investor confidence.

Oyedele’s warning underscored the administration’s argument that the consequences of subsidy policies should be assessed alongside exchange-rate risks and their potential effects on the wider economy.

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