SpaceX Stock Has Climbed About 50% Through 6 Insider Share Unlocks. The Biggest Is Still Ahead.

Since early August, almost 2.3 billion shares of SpaceX (SPCX -4.21%) owned by employees and early investors have come out of lockup. For comparison, the company sold 639 million shares in its June initial public offering (IPO).

But the growth stock is far higher than when the releases began. Shares ended Monday at around $163 — about 50% above their $108 close on Aug. 5, the day before the first release.

Granted, the gain looks bigger because of where it starts. Aug. 5 was the day after SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, and the stock lost around 14% that session. Measured from the close before that drop, the gain is about 30%.

Either way, shares have risen while all that supply became eligible to trade. But this year's biggest release is still to come.

SpaceX listed the release dates in its IPO prospectus, and the stock's release-day moves have gotten smaller along the way.

The first and largest came on Aug. 6, when up to 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade, and shares climbed 6% that day. Releases of up to 319 million shares followed on Aug. 20 and again on Sept. 9. The stock lost around 4% each time.

Next came a small batch of up to 59.1 million shares owned by affiliates (officers and other controlling holders) on Sept. 10, and up to 328.4 million shares on both Sept. 24 and Oct. 9. On those three days, the stock gained 0.4%, dipped 0.2%, and gained a little more than 1%.

Including the small affiliate batch, shares fell on three of the six release days. And the last three moves were all smaller than a normal day for this stock, which has typically moved around 2% a session since early August.

I don't think the risk from all that new supply is over, and I don't think the 50% gain is good evidence that it is.

For one thing, the prospectus just sets the first date the shares can be sold. From there, it's up to each holder. On Sept. 24, for instance, around 73 million SpaceX shares changed hands in all — only about 22% of the 328.4 million that became eligible that day. Most of the batch couldn't have been sold right away, and it could still be sold on any trading day.

Also, the gain depends on where the count starts. Shares are still less than 2% above their $160.95 first-day close in June.

Three more releases are set for this year. Up to 328.4 million shares unlock on Saturday, Oct. 24, so the first session they can trade is Monday, Oct. 26. Up to 797.6 million follow after the close on Dec. 8. And in between, up to 1.3 billion shares become eligible on the second full trading day after SpaceX reports third-quarter results.

Notably, that release is around 40% bigger than August's. As of Monday, the company hadn't given a date for the report, though it's probably just weeks away.

Combined, the three could unlock around 2.4 billion shares, more than everything released so far. Around 21% of SpaceX's 13.6 billion shares can trade now. By early December, that number might be near 40%. And CEO Elon Musk's shares are locked until June 2027.

The stock is in a different spot this time, too. When the first release hit in August, shares had just closed around 20% below the $135 IPO price. As of this writing, they're about 21% above it. Holders who weren't willing to sell below the IPO price could be more willing above it.

ExpandNASDAQ: SPCXSpace Exploration TechnologiesToday's Change(-4.21%) $-6.88Current Price$156.54Key Data PointsMarket Cap$2.2TMarket cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.Day's Range$156.05 – $161.9852wk Range$104.83 – $225.64Volume69MAvg Vol93.3MYes, the business is growing fast. SpaceX's second-quarter revenue climbed 92% year over year to $7.8 billion, accelerating from around 15% growth in the first quarter, and its net loss of $541 million was about half the loss from a year earlier.

But the company hasn't reported another quarter since Aug. 4, so investors are paying much more for the same reported numbers. At around $2.2 trillion, SpaceX's market cap is about 71 times sales (using annualized second-quarter revenue).

All told, six releases have passed without lasting damage to the stock, and I think that's a good sign. But the next big one is larger than any of them. It also follows an earnings report and probably comes with shares above their IPO price. I don't think the first six tell us much about how it'll go.

@sparks_capitalStocks MentionedSpace Exploration TechnologiesNASDAQ: SPCX$156.54(-4.21%)-$6.88Motley Fool Stock Advisor’s Latest PickGet Access—% Avg Return*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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