Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Changes Direction With Non-White Voters

U.S.NewsPoliticsAI PoliticsTechFact CheckSportsGlobalIran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World NewsLifestyleFamily & ParentingEntertainmentTravelPetsAutomotiveRelationshipsScienceHealthPersonal FinanceBetter WorkplacesReaders ChoiceOpinionMy TurnAll OpinionRankingsHealthCorporate ResponsibilityFinanceProductsEducationWorkAll RankingsWatchThe 1600The Royal ReportUnconventionalFrom The PaddockNewsmakersSocialFacebookInstagramYouTubeRedditTikTokTwitter/XExtraNewslettersDare to DreamEventsEssaysPodcastsVantageInsightsMagazineCEO CircleAnnouncementsLeadershipDev Pragad President Donald Trump’s net approval has improved by 19 points among Black respondents and 20 points among Hispanic respondents across three consecutive Economist/YouGov polls conducted between September 18 and October 5. Across the Economist/YouGov surveys reviewed by Newsweek: It raises the possibility that parts of the coalition behind his 2024 victory may be stabilizing ahead of the midterms. Republican and Democratic campaigns in Georgia, Texas and Florida will be watching for signs that the national pattern is emerging within their demographically diverse electorates. However, national demographic findings cannot establish that the same movement is occurring in any individual state. “There is clearly something going on here in terms of the structural shifting of coalitions from 2024,” Peter Finn, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Greenwich who specializes in U.S. elections, told Newsweek via email. Finn said the movement should be viewed against a broader political environment that may still be unfavorable to the president. Richard Johnson, a senior lecturer in U.S. politics and policy at Queen Mary University of London, said targeted Republican media and grassroots campaigning among some Black and Hispanic voters could be producing results. He also suggested the figures might represent a “gentle recovery” among relatively conservative voters motivated by “negative partisanship” when presented with Democratic candidates as the alternative. “It can be difficult to distill general conclusions from the noise of polls,” Johnson cautioned. The White House argued that the polling reflected the strength of Trump’s political coalition and his ability to communicate with its voters. “No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek. Ingle credited the administration’s record on taxes, prescription-drug costs, immigration, crime, energy and private-sector employment, adding that Trump was committed to preserving Republican control of Congress. He called the president the party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator,” framing the midterms as a choice between Trump’s agenda and Democratic policies. Why It Matters Trump’s return to the White House was helped by gains among Hispanic voters and parts of the Black electorate, challenging assumptions about the durability of Democrats’ demographic advantages. More recent signs of erosion made those advances look vulnerable, but the latest figures point in the opposite direction. By The Numbers In the September 18-to-21 poll of 1,401 U.S. registered voters, Trump had a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -15 among White respondents, -84 among Black respondents and -37 among Hispanic respondents. The survey’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points after weighting. The September 25-to-28 poll, based on 1,429 registered voters, put the corresponding figures at -16, -71 and -26. Its margin of sampling error was also plus or minus 3.4 points, adjusted for weighting. By the October 2-to-5 survey of 1,381 registered voters, Trump stood at -15 among White respondents, -65 among Black respondents and -17 among Hispanic respondents. That poll carried the same stated error margin. Across the full sequence, his net standing therefore improved by 19 points among Black respondents and 20 points among Hispanic respondents. Black approval rose from 6 percent to 15 percent as disapproval fell from 90 percent to 80 percent. Among Hispanic respondents, approval increased from 31 percent to 41 percent and disapproval declined from 68 percent to 58 percent. White opinion moved only from 41 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval to 42 percent and 57 percent. The figures depict a reduction in opposition, not a crossover into positive territory. In the final survey, Trump remained 65 points underwater among Black respondents and 17 points underwater among Hispanic respondents. That distinction matters because a voter can become less dissatisfied with a president without supporting the president’s party in a congressional election. Candidate quality, turnout and views of local nominees may produce a different result when Trump is absent from the ballot. What Could Be Driving The Change The surveys establish the direction of movement but do not, on their own, identify its cause. One possibility is that voters who backed Trump in 2024 after previously supporting Democrats are returning to their earlier assessment of him following a period of dissatisfaction. Another is that the weekly cross-tabs are capturing different mixes of people inside categories that contain wide political variation. “Hispanic voters,” for example, describes communities with different national origins, ages, economic circumstances and regional identities. Black political opinion can likewise vary by generation, gender, education and geography. Movement within one segment can alter a national figure without representing an equivalent change across the wider population. Sampling uncertainty provides a further reason for restraint. The stated 3.4-point margin applies to each poll’s full registered-voter sample, not necessarily to its smaller racial and ethnic subgroups. With fewer respondents, estimates become less precise, making apparent changes more susceptible to statistical variation. Three readings moving in the same direction are more noteworthy than a single unusual result. They are not conclusive proof that the underlying electorate has shifted by the full amount shown. The Midterm Test Electoral consequences would depend on where any improvement is occurring and how those voters behave when congressional candidates replace Trump’s name on the ballot. Georgia’s large Black electorate makes even modest changes potentially important in a competitive contest. Texas and Florida offer different tests because their Hispanic populations are neither politically nor culturally interchangeable, meaning a national number could conceal sharply contrasting state patterns. Turnout adds another layer. Midterm electorates differ from presidential-year coalitions, while enthusiasm, registration and candidate quality can shape the final result independently of views about the person in the White House. For Republicans, the encouraging interpretation is that Trump’s appeal among parts of the electorate that moved toward him in 2024 has not disappeared. Democrats can point to the fact that majorities of both Black and Hispanic respondents in the latest survey still disapproved of his performance. The next evidence will need to come from additional polling, especially state-level surveys measuring vote intention alongside presidential approval. Until then, the series signals a possible change in direction, not a settled verdict on Trump’s coalition. Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.10Loading video…By Sam StevensonAssociate News Editor

0ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.President Donald Trump’s net approval has improved by 19 points among Black respondents and 20 points among Hispanic respondents across three consecutive Economist/YouGov polls conducted between September 18 and October 5.

Across the Economist/YouGov surveys reviewed by Newsweek:

It raises the possibility that parts of the coalition behind his 2024 victory may be stabilizing ahead of the midterms.

Republican and Democratic campaigns in Georgia, Texas and Florida will be watching for signs that the national pattern is emerging within their demographically diverse electorates.

However, national demographic findings cannot establish that the same movement is occurring in any individual state.

“There is clearly something going on here in terms of the structural shifting of coalitions from 2024,” Peter Finn, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Greenwich who specializes in U.S. elections, told Newsweek via email.

Finn said the movement should be viewed against a broader political environment that may still be unfavorable to the president.

Richard Johnson, a senior lecturer in U.S. politics and policy at Queen Mary University of London, said targeted Republican media and grassroots campaigning among some Black and Hispanic voters could be producing results.

He also suggested the figures might represent a “gentle recovery” among relatively conservative voters motivated by “negative partisanship” when presented with Democratic candidates as the alternative.

“It can be difficult to distill general conclusions from the noise of polls,” Johnson cautioned.

The White House argued that the polling reflected the strength of Trump’s political coalition and his ability to communicate with its voters.

“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek.

Ingle credited the administration’s record on taxes, prescription-drug costs, immigration, crime, energy and private-sector employment, adding that Trump was committed to preserving Republican control of Congress.

He called the president the party’s “best messenger” and “unmatched motivator,” framing the midterms as a choice between Trump’s agenda and Democratic policies.

Trump’s return to the White House was helped by gains among Hispanic voters and parts of the Black electorate, challenging assumptions about the durability of Democrats’ demographic advantages.

More recent signs of erosion made those advances look vulnerable, but the latest figures point in the opposite direction.

In the September 18-to-21 poll of 1,401 U.S. registered voters, Trump had a net approval rating (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -15 among White respondents, -84 among Black respondents and -37 among Hispanic respondents.

The survey’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points after weighting.

The September 25-to-28 poll, based on 1,429 registered voters, put the corresponding figures at -16, -71 and -26.

Its margin of sampling error was also plus or minus 3.4 points, adjusted for weighting.

By the October 2-to-5 survey of 1,381 registered voters, Trump stood at -15 among White respondents, -65 among Black respondents and -17 among Hispanic respondents.

That poll carried the same stated error margin.

Across the full sequence, his net standing therefore improved by 19 points among Black respondents and 20 points among Hispanic respondents.

Black approval rose from 6 percent to 15 percent as disapproval fell from 90 percent to 80 percent.

Among Hispanic respondents, approval increased from 31 percent to 41 percent and disapproval declined from 68 percent to 58 percent.

White opinion moved only from 41 percent approval and 56 percent disapproval to 42 percent and 57 percent.

The figures depict a reduction in opposition, not a crossover into positive territory.

In the final survey, Trump remained 65 points underwater among Black respondents and 17 points underwater among Hispanic respondents.

That distinction matters because a voter can become less dissatisfied with a president without supporting the president’s party in a congressional election.

Candidate quality, turnout and views of local nominees may produce a different result when Trump is absent from the ballot.

The surveys establish the direction of movement but do not, on their own, identify its cause.

One possibility is that voters who backed Trump in 2024 after previously supporting Democrats are returning to their earlier assessment of him following a period of dissatisfaction.

Another is that the weekly cross-tabs are capturing different mixes of people inside categories that contain wide political variation.

“Hispanic voters,” for example, describes communities with different national origins, ages, economic circumstances and regional identities.

Black political opinion can likewise vary by generation, gender, education and geography.

Movement within one segment can alter a national figure without representing an equivalent change across the wider population.

Sampling uncertainty provides a further reason for restraint.

The stated 3.4-point margin applies to each poll’s full registered-voter sample, not necessarily to its smaller racial and ethnic subgroups.

With fewer respondents, estimates become less precise, making apparent changes more susceptible to statistical variation.

Three readings moving in the same direction are more noteworthy than a single unusual result.

They are not conclusive proof that the underlying electorate has shifted by the full amount shown.

Electoral consequences would depend on where any improvement is occurring and how those voters behave when congressional candidates replace Trump’s name on the ballot.

Georgia’s large Black electorate makes even modest changes potentially important in a competitive contest.

Texas and Florida offer different tests because their Hispanic populations are neither politically nor culturally interchangeable, meaning a national number could conceal sharply contrasting state patterns. Turnout adds another layer.

Midterm electorates differ from presidential-year coalitions, while enthusiasm, registration and candidate quality can shape the final result independently of views about the person in the White House.

For Republicans, the encouraging interpretation is that Trump’s appeal among parts of the electorate that moved toward him in 2024 has not disappeared.

Democrats can point to the fact that majorities of both Black and Hispanic respondents in the latest survey still disapproved of his performance.

The next evidence will need to come from additional polling, especially state-level surveys measuring vote intention alongside presidential approval.

Until then, the series signals a possible change in direction, not a settled verdict on Trump’s coalition.

Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.

Contact Newsweek editor on this story: Edward Pearcey.