Tillis: ‘Almost statistically impossible’ for Republicans to win House in midterms

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to retain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections.

Appearing on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” host Ari Melber asked the senator about divisions within the GOP driven by President Trump.

“I’m supporting the president because he’s the head of the party, not because he’s Donald J. Trump, but because he is the face of our party,” Tillis said. “And I want my party to be in the best position for elections. And we’re going to, we’re going to take a little bit of a hit this season and recover from it, I believe.”

Tillis, who is not running for reelection, added: “I think the House is almost statistically impossible to win at this point.”

He continued that he believed Republicans would retain control of the Senate but “it will be a tight margin, but I still think we pull it out.”

“Because we’ve got great candidates in Maine, Ohio, Arkansas. They’ve just got to run hard and we’ve got to support them,” he said.

Tillis’s remarks come as GOP candidates are grappling with a midterm environment where Trump’s low approval ratings, an unpopular war in Iran, a tariff war with Canada and inflation where cost of living remains a concern.

The Senate is considered a toss-up by polling averages.

The Democratic Party needs to win at least four seats to regain control of the upper chamber; races in Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Texas and Alaska remain competitive, according to recent polling from The New York Times/Siena.

It found Democrats leading by 6 points in the Texas Senate race, 7 points in Alaska and 3 points in Ohio. The party’s candidates are down 1 point in Iowa and tied in Kansas. With the surveys in Ohio, Iowa and Kansas falling within the margin of error — 4.5 points in Ohio, and 4.6 points in both Iowa and Kansas — those races are essentially tied.

Tillis’s open seat will likely go to Democratic Senate candidate Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), which gives him an 84 percent probability of flipping the seat.

DDHQ also forecasts that Democrats have a 76 percent probability of flipping the House and a 56 percent chance of taking back the Senate.