Russia is ‘one week from crisis’ as Ukraine’s drone blitz could bring Putin’s fuel system to its knees

Ukraine’s escalating drone campaign against Russia’s oil industry is threatening to trigger a fresh fuel crisis, with attacks on major refineries raising the prospect of petrol shortages, queues at filling stations and restrictions on how much motorists can buy.

A series of strikes since late October may have paralysed facilities responsible for producing around 55 per cent of Russia’s petrol, according to Sergei Vakulenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre in Berlin.

The disruption comes after a relatively calm October, when Russia was able to accumulate reserves. But those stockpiles may be sufficient to cover only about a week’s consumption, Vakulenko warned, leaving the country vulnerable if attacks continue to cripple production.

He believes November could mark the moment when the disruption stops being a manageable inconvenience and “turns into serious problems”.

The scale of Ukraine’s offensive has been striking. Over the past fortnight, drones have hit all five of Russia’s largest oil refineries, alongside several other strategically important facilities.

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The Omsk refinery, with an annual capacity of 22mn tonnes, was attacked on November 11, while the Kinef refinery in Leningrad Oblast, capable of processing 21mn tonnes, came under attack two days earlier.

Strikes on November 5 and 3 targeted the Ryazan refinery and Slavneft-YANOS, with annual capacities of 17mn and 15mn tonnes respectively. Both supply fuel to Moscow, making disruption particularly sensitive for the Russian capital.

Lukoil’s refinery near Nizhny Novgorod, one of the country’s most important petrol producers, was attacked on November 1. The Volgograd refinery was struck on November 13.

Other targets have included Rosneft’s Novokuybyshevsk plant, the Ufimsky refinery and the Afipsky refinery, further widening the pressure on Russia’s refining network.

The campaign has now extended beyond conventional oil processing to facilities supplying the materials needed to sustain Russia’s military machine.

Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck three Russian military-industrial facilities overnight on November 15, including two major petrochemical and refining plants in Tatarstan and a helicopter manufacturer in Bryansk Oblast.

At Nizhnekamsk, explosions and a fire were reported at Nizhnekamskneftekhim, part of the Sibur petrochemical group and located about 1,200km from Ukraine. The complex produces synthetic rubber, plastics and other materials used in products ranging from military vehicle tyres to aircraft components.

Ukraine’s General Staff said the consequences of disabling such facilities extended far beyond the immediate loss of industrial output.

“Every day these plants are idle means fewer tires for the vehicles transporting ammunition to the front, fewer rubber parts for armored vehicles and aircraft, fewer raw materials for the missile industry, and less fuel for the Russian military,” it said.

Ukrainian forces also struck the TAIF-NK refinery in Nizhnekamsk, hitting its sole primary oil-processing unit, known as ELOU-AVT-7. A fire was reported at the site, although the extent of the damage at both facilities remains under assessment.

Nizhnekamsk mayor Radmir Belyaev said the city had endured a prolonged drone attack, damaging industrial facilities and an apartment building. Residents were evacuated and several people were injured, he added.

The third target was Monolit, a company in Trubchevsk, Bryansk Oblast, which manufactures aircraft, including helicopters, as well as spare parts and components.

The strikes underline Kyiv’s determination to attack the industrial infrastructure underpinning Moscow’s war effort, rather than concentrating solely on military positions near the front.

For the Kremlin, the potential consequences are twofold. Disruption to refineries threatens domestic petrol supplies, while damage to petrochemical plants risks constraining the production of materials needed by Russia’s armed forces.

The attacks do not yet establish that Russia is facing an imminent nationwide shortage. But with reserves potentially covering only days of consumption and repeated strikes hitting major processing centres, the margin for absorbing further disruption may be narrowing.

If Ukraine can sustain the campaign, November could prove a turning point — transforming a series of costly industrial setbacks into a much broader test of Russia’s ability to keep its economy, motorists and military supplied with fuel.