Could This Debt Overhang Have Forced Govt Back To The IMF In 2027 Or Another DDEP? – Mussa Dankwah

According to an Official Facebook Post by Mussa Dankwah on November 15, 2026, concerns have been raised about Ghana’s ability to meet its debt obligations falling due in 2027 and 2028 without placing renewed pressure on the economy. In a post captioned (“Could this debt overhang have forced government back to IMF in 2027 or another DDEP?”), Dankwah questioned whether the country’s debt repayment challenges could have compelled the government to seek another International Monetary Fund programme or undertake a fresh Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP).

Dankwah’s post was accompanied by an image highlighting the scale of Ghana’s approaching debt obligations. The image stated that available data showed the country would have to honour debt obligations amounting to approximately GH¢111 billion in 2027 and 2028, while the Cedi component of the Sinking Fund reportedly contained only GH¢15.6 billion. The difference between the projected obligations and the available funds was presented as a concern requiring explanation.

The figures reflect the debt repayment challenges Ghana inherited following the domestic debt restructuring exercise undertaken in 2022 and 2023. Under the DDEP, government exchanged existing domestic bonds for new instruments with revised payment terms. Although the programme helped reduce immediate financing pressures, it also created concentrated repayment obligations in subsequent years, particularly 2027 and 2028.

In the 2025 Budget Statement, Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson disclosed that domestic debt service obligations over the following four years were projected at approximately GH¢150.3 billion. Of that amount, GH¢57.6 billion was expected to fall due in 2027, while GH¢52.5 billion was scheduled for 2028. Together, these obligations amounted to approximately GH¢110.1 billion, creating what the government described as significant debt service humps.

The concern raised in the accompanying image was therefore centred on whether the funds accumulated in the Sinking Fund would be sufficient to meet the approaching obligations. The Sinking Fund is intended to provide resources for the timely repayment of specified government debts and reduce the risk of financial disruption when major obligations mature.

However, the government’s more recent disclosures in the 2027 Budget provide an updated picture. According to the budget, the Cedi Sinking Fund held GH¢29 billion as of November 11, 2026, rather than the GH¢15.6 billion figure shown in the image. The government also announced the early redemption of GH¢29 billion in domestic debt principal that was originally due in February 2027. This means the figures in the image should be understood in their original reporting context rather than treated as the latest position.

Despite these measures, significant obligations remain. The 2027 Budget indicates that approximately GH¢53 billion in DDEP bond obligations will fall due in February and August 2027, including both principal and interest payments. The government says it is building additional buffers to meet the associated interest payments and subsequent obligations.

Dankwah’s question about a possible return to the IMF or another DDEP nevertheless raises an important issue about the sustainability of Ghana’s debt management strategy. A government facing substantial repayments may need to rely on accumulated reserves, revenue, refinancing through the domestic market or other financing arrangements. If these options become difficult or excessively expensive, fiscal pressure could intensify.

A return to an IMF financing programme is not automatic simply because large debts are falling due. Similarly, another DDEP would depend on the government’s financial circumstances, available alternatives and decisions about how to manage its obligations. Both possibilities would carry significant economic and public confidence implications.

The debate is particularly important because Ghana has only recently completed its IMF-supported programme and is seeking to consolidate its economic recovery. Maintaining investor confidence, strengthening revenue mobilisation and ensuring that the domestic bond market can support refinancing will be important in managing the approaching maturities.

Ultimately, Dankwah’s post draws attention to a question that goes beyond the amount of money currently held in the Sinking Fund: whether Ghana can meet its debt obligations as they fall due without returning to the kind of financial distress that led to the previous restructuring.

Source: Official Facebook Post by Mussa Dankwah, November 15, 2026.

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