I Do Not Know Who Sponsored The Latest TIFA Polls, But Why Was Ruto’s Support In Nyanza – Millie

“I do not know who sponsored the latest TIFA polls, but why was President Ruto’s support in Nyanza so low?” – Millie Odhiambo

Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo has questioned the latest TIFA Research opinion poll, saying opinion polls are often sponsored and can be used to communicate messages beyond the numbers presented.

In a statement on Friday, November 13, 2026, Odhiambo said she was surprised by the results. She did not identify any sponsor of the TIFA survey or present evidence that its findings had been influenced.

“The polls communicate very strong political messages,” she said, adding that the only person who should celebrate the findings was the sponsor.

TIFA’s report lists TIFA Research itself as the survey’s funding source.

The poll was conducted through face-to-face household interviews with 2,036 adults across all 47 counties between October 26 and November 5, 2026, with a national margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 per cent.

The survey placed President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at 31 per cent each nationally when respondents were asked whom they would like to win the 2027 presidential election.

In Nyanza, President Ruto recorded 35 per cent against Sifuna’s 33 per cent. Matiang’i got 12 per cent in Nyanza.

On party affiliation, UDA ranked first at 25 per cent, Linda Mwananchi Movement / TEP second at 17 per cent and ODM third at 10 per cent. 26 per cent said they did not identify with any party.

In Nyanza kingpinship, ODM leader Oburu Odinga and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino tied at 28 per cent each.

1. Why is UDA number one, Linda Mwananchi number two, and ODM number three? What message is that sending?

2. Why are Oburu Odinga and Babu Owino tied at 28 per cent each for Nyanza kingpinship? Who benefits from that tie?

3. Why was President Ruto’s support in Nyanza so low? Ruto got only 35 per cent in Nyanza, yet he has been touring Nyanza, launching projects, and working with ODM in the broad-based government. In Northern Kenya he got 62 per cent, in Central Rift 59 per cent, in Coast 40 per cent. Why is Nyanza, which is in government, giving him only 35 per cent?

4. Why is Sifuna ranked at the same level as Ruto nationally at 31 per cent each? Sifuna was at 15 per cent in June. How did he jump to 31 per cent in 5 months?

5. Why is Gachagua ranked so low in Central Kenya? Gachagua got only 11 per cent in Mt Kenya, while Sifuna got 32 per cent in Mt Kenya. How can Sifuna beat Gachagua in his own backyard?

Millie is ODM. She is from Nyanza. She is defending ODM’s space.

If ODM is now number three nationally at 10 per cent, down from 20 per cent in June, that is a collapse. If Linda Mwananchi has overtaken ODM, that means Sifuna has taken ODM’s voters.

If Ruto is only at 35 per cent in Nyanza despite the broad-based government, that means 44 per cent of Nyanza opposes the broad-based government, while only 38 per cent supports it.

TIFA itself said its findings reflect public opinion during the fieldwork period rather than a prediction of the eventual election outcome.

But Millie says: Polls are not innocent. They are political messages.

“Only the sponsor should celebrate,” she said.

Kenyans online are divided. Some say: “Millie is right. Who paid for this poll? Who is Uhuru’s candidate?” Others say: “When polls favour you, you celebrate. When they don’t, you say they are sponsored.”

One thing is clear: TIFA has shaken Kenyan politics. Ruto and Sifuna tied at 31 per cent. UDA on top. ODM third. Nyanza split.

Millie is asking the question every politician is asking in private: Who sponsored this poll?

And why is Ruto’s support in Nyanza so low?

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