Biggest petrol price cut of 2026 expected in December

Cape Town – South African motorists could receive their biggest petrol price reduction of the year in December, with the latest fuel price data pointing to cuts of more than R2 per litre, although diesel users could still face increases.

According to BusinessTech, data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the second week of November shows an over-recovery of R2.86 per litre for 93-octane petrol and R3.12 for 95-octane petrol.

After accounting for the return of 50 cents per litre following the scaling back of National Treasury’s temporary fuel levy relief, motorists could still see reductions of approximately R2.36 for 93 petrol and R2.62 for 95 petrol.

This would surpass the R1.96 per litre reduction recorded in July, making December’s projected adjustment the biggest petrol price cut of 2026.

However, the outlook is less favourable for diesel motorists. The CEF data shows over-recoveries of 97 cents per litre for 0.05% sulphur diesel and R1.34 for 0.005% sulphur diesel. These are insufficient to offset the R1.50 per litre increase resulting from the reduction in temporary fuel levy relief, potentially translating into increases of 53 cents and 16 cents respectively.

The more positive outlook for petrol prices follows a decline in international oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $100 a barrel earlier this month.

According to IOL, Brent crude had dropped by approximately 15% following the US midterm elections.

Bianca Botes, managing director at Citadel Global, said: “Brent crude is holding near $98/barrel, marginally softer, after US President Donald Trump signalled fresh Iran strikes are unlikely should talks progress, draining some of oil’s risk premium.”

However, Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop cautioned that higher shipping and logistics costs could continue putting pressure on transport expenses.

“Freight rates rose to record highs last month for oil shipping, with oil stocks very low and little near-term chance of rebuilding inventories,” she said.

Eyewitness News also reported that preliminary CEF figures point to petrol price reductions of R1.52 and R1.82 per litre for 93 and 95 petrol respectively, after accounting for the planned fuel levy changes. Its earlier projections were based on data available before the latest improvements in fuel price recoveries.

The projected reductions come after motorists endured substantial increases throughout the year, with BusinessTech reporting that 95 petrol had risen by R8.83 per litre between January and November.

The December adjustments are expected to take effect on Wednesday, 2 December, with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources expected to announce the final prices towards the end of November.

The projections remain subject to changes in international oil prices, the rand-dollar exchange rate and possible slate levy adjustments before the end of the month.

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