Tinubu declares end to economic emergency, unveils housing regulator plan

_______________________________________________________________________ From Juliana Taiwo-Obalonye, Abuja President Bola Tinubu on Thursday declared that Nigeria had moved beyond the emergency phase of its economic reforms, announcing a transition to an era of shared prosperity, even as Anambra State Governor, Chukwuma Soludo, warned that the country’s current four per cent growth rate was insufficient to tackle poverty or achieve its $1 trillion economic ambition. While Tinubu insisted that the painful reforms introduced by his administration were beginning to yield results, with external reserves rising to about $55 billion and non-oil exports exceeding $6 billion, Soludo called for double-digit economic growth and investments exceeding 30 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to accelerate industrialisation and create jobs. Former presidential spokesman and veteran journalist, Dr Reuben Abati, however, cautioned that the sustainability of the reforms would ultimately depend on whether their benefits translated into improved living conditions for ordinary Nigerians. The three made their positions known at the presentation of a 526-page book, Economic Diversification and Structural Transformation in Nigeria: The Past, The Present, The Future, authored by a four-term member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Abdulmumini Kofa, at the State House Conference Centre, Abuja. Tinubu, who was represented by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, said the administration had successfully laid the foundation for economic recovery and was now shifting attention from stabilisation to productive expansion, industrial growth and improved living standards. “The emergency is behind us. Non-oil activities now account for about 96 per cent of our Gross Domestic Product. Our non-oil exports have crossed $6 billion, the highest in our history. “Our external reserves have risen to about $55 billion, more than 14 months of import cover. Our non-oil revenue has grown from N13.63 trillion in 2023 to N16.4 trillion in the first half of this year alone. “Our task has moved from stabilisation to shared prosperity, and our compass points firmly to a $1 trillion economy by 2030,” he declared. The President attributed the improvements to difficult but necessary decisions taken since he assumed office in May 2023, particularly the removal of petrol subsidy and unification of the foreign exchange market. Recalling the economic situation he inherited, Tinubu said Nigeria was facing a combination of fiscal distress, currency instability, mounting debt obligations, depleted reserves and declining industrial productivity. “For too long, Nigeria’s story was a song sung in a single note. We were a nation of boundless promise tied to a single product. “Our budget, our currency and the livelihood of millions rose and fell with the tides of a distant oil market. We floated on the fragile illusion of oil wealth while the foundation beneath us cracked. “When I took the oath of office, I did not inherit a calm sea. I inherited a gathering storm: a collapsing naira, debt service that swallowed nearly all our revenues, depleted reserves, a fuel subsidy that bled our treasury dry, and factories falling silent as industries and jobs fled across our borders,” he said. He added that his administration had been confronted with a choice between continuing unsustainable economic arrangements and undertaking fundamental reforms. “Two roads lay before us. One was the comfortable road of cosmetic remedies that led us to the edge of the cliff. The other was the hard road of surgery to save the patient. “We chose reform over ruin. We removed the fuel subsidy. We unified the exchange rate. “These were not easy decisions, and I know the weight they placed on every household, but they were necessary. And today, the pain is yielding its promise,” he said. However, acknowledging that improved economic indicators had yet to translate sufficiently into the daily lives of Nigerians, Tinubu said the government was determined to ensure that macroeconomic gains produced tangible benefits. “Yet the nation is not lifted by statistics alone. Numbers must become bread on the table, light in the home, and hope for willing arms,” he said. On the $1 trillion economic target, Tinubu said the private sector would provide approximately 86 per cent of the investment required, while government would focus on creating an enabling environment for businesses to expand, manufacture and export. “Government alone cannot build a trillion-dollar economy. Wealth is created by enterprises that invest, innovate, manufacture and export. Our duty is to clear the path before them. “That is why we are harmonising our taxes, ending the menace of multiple taxation. “We cannot tax our way into prosperity. We must produce our way there,” he declared. The President also identified electricity, infrastructure, agriculture, housing, manufacturing and digital skills as critical pillars of the next phase of economic transformation. On electricity, he cited Nigeria’s victory in the $3.38 billion international arbitration dispute over the Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project, saying the outcome had removed a major legal obstacle that had stalled the project for more than nine years. “No nation has ever industrialised in darkness. That is why we fought for Mambilla, winning the $3.38 billion arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris and freeing a project that had been paralysed for more than nine years,” he said. He also highlighted the Kano-Katsina-Maradi Railway, Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway as strategic infrastructure projects intended to connect agricultural regions, industrial centres and commercial cities. Tinubu said 52 per cent of the mileage covered by the administration’s legacy highway projects was in northern Nigeria, while 48 per cent was in the South. In the housing sector, he announced plans to work with the National Assembly and relevant stakeholders to establish a regulatory authority for housing and real estate development. He said the proposed institution would establish standards, promote transparency, protect investors and provide mechanisms for resolving grievances involving property buyers. The President disclosed that more than 10,000 houses were being developed under the Renewed Hope Cities and Estates Programme across 14 states and the Federal Capital Territory. He added that approximately N128 billion in mortgage financing had been extended to 1,859 families in 25 states through the Ministry of Finance Incorporated Real Estate Investment Fund, at a fixed interest rate of 9.75 per cent over 20 years. Turning to the challenges confronting the country’s economic ambitions, Soludo said although the Tinubu administration had rescued Nigeria from the brink of economic collapse, the current growth trajectory was inadequate for a country with a rapidly expanding population. “The administration has done very well, rescued the economy. As I previously described it, the economy when this government came in was like a dead horse that was still standing. “It sprayed some oxygen to it. Growth has begun to come back, and we are now on the right trajectory. But acceleration, speed and building to last become important considerations going forward,” he said. The former Central Bank of Nigeria governor argued that Nigeria must grow at a minimum of double digits to achieve the level of economic expansion required for substantial poverty reduction and industrial transformation. “Four per cent growth rate for the economy so far is an improvement over the recent past, but very moderate growth for the requirement for significant poverty reduction or accelerated transformation. “Such growth that will be required to be able to have a $1 trillion economy in the next few years will require this economy growing at a minimum of double digit. “And to grow at double digit, you require huge investments in excess of 30 per cent of GDP. Currently, we are doing about 17-point-something per cent,” he said. Soludo warned that Nigeria could not afford to continue with modest economic growth, particularly as its population was projected to reach about 400 million within the next three decades, with approximately 70 per cent of the population currently aged 30 and below. “We have lost time and must now run at the speed of 1,000 kilometres per hour if we want to leapfrog, catch up and surpass our peers in this increasingly competitive and disruptive world. “The current foundations by this administration are in the right direction. The road ahead towards structural transformation will require dozens more disruptive but progressive agendas,” he said. Tinubu pledges more federal projects for Edo at APC rallyTinubu mourns Omole, says Nigeria has lost distinguished scholar, public intellectualAPC stakeholders target 1.5m Kano votes for Tinubu’s re-election Identifying industrialisation as one of Nigeria’s greatest economic weaknesses, Soludo said the country had moved from an agriculture-dominated economy to a service-driven one without developing a strong manufacturing base. He explained that agriculture, which accounted for about 64 per cent of economic output around independence, had declined to approximately 23 per cent by 2025, while services contributed about 60 per cent. Manufacturing, however, had remained largely stagnant at approximately eight per cent of GDP over the past 56 years. “There is a major missing link. Nigeria transited from the primary to the tertiary services sector. “Our economic diversification and transformation have happened with a missing middle. There is a middle that is missing, which is the secondary sector. “Bypassing the secondary sector under a phenomenon of premature deindustrialisation and incomplete industrialisation, the share of manufacturing has remained flat at about eight per cent for the last 56 years, since 1970. “The manufacturing sector is still less than 10 per cent, and that is where the jobs are for the 400 million Nigerians coming. They need manufacturing jobs. “Industrialisation must happen if we are to have a sustainable economy that creates jobs and widespread prosperity,” he said. The governor also commended Tinubu for confronting longstanding distortions in the foreign exchange market, insisting that a competitive exchange rate was essential for export-led industrialisation. “Having an overvalued real effective exchange rate and expecting industrial competitiveness was one of Nigeria’s greatest mistakes on the road to transformation. “During my time at the Central Bank, I resisted the IMF advice to revalue the naira. We targeted a real effective exchange rate undervaluation. “There can be no sustained diversification and competitiveness of the economy without an exchange rate strategy,” he said. He cited Nigeria’s reported non-oil export earnings of $6.1 billion in 2025 as evidence of the potential benefits of a more competitive exchange rate environment. Soludo, however, warned against the temptation to abandon economic reforms for short-term political gains as the country approaches the 2027 general elections. “Eyes on the ball. We must avoid the temptation of short-term populism. “Part of the reason why many of the reforms did not survive, were not sustainable, was simply because we went up and down. Populism, no continuity, no sustainability,” he cautioned. He added: “It is said that statesmen worry about the next generation, but politicians worry about the next election. “The real miracle of Nigeria will be for our politics, within the short term, to play the politics of the short term without sacrificing the long-term agenda.” The governor further urged Nigerians to develop confidence in locally manufactured goods, arguing that consumer choices could stimulate domestic production, attract foreign investment and create jobs. “Imagine for a moment if all Nigerians only eat and wear made-in-Nigeria products. Imagine the millions of jobs and the foreign direct investment that will relocate to exploit the Nigerian market. “I am Nigerian. I am proud. I wear made in Nigeria. At the Governor’s Lodge in Awka, we only offer made-in-Nigeria food and drinks, except on exceedingly rare occasions. “If you come to Anambra, we offer you palm wine, not champagne,” he said. Reviewing the book, Abati said the most important test of the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms was not the improvement in macroeconomic indicators but whether ordinary Nigerians were experiencing better living conditions. He warned that economic stability without household prosperity could undermine public confidence and threaten the sustainability of the reforms. Drawing from the author’s assessment of the Renewed Hope Agenda, Abati highlighted the warning that the pace of economic adjustments must not exceed the capacity of citizens to withstand hardship. He quoted Kofa as saying: “Economic reforms can only endure if the speed of fiscal adjustment respects the threshold of human endurance.” Abati noted that despite improvements in some economic fundamentals, Nigerians continued to contend with weak purchasing power and a high cost of living. “The basic fundamentals within the economy may be going through a correction due to policy actions. Purchasing power is low. The country faces a cost-of-living crisis, and more should be done to support vulnerable Nigerians,” he said. He stressed that the ultimate purpose of economic reform must be the improvement of citizens’ welfare rather than the concentration of wealth in the hands of a privileged few. “Certainly, the purpose of reform must not be the enrichment of a privileged minority at the expense of the people’s prosperity,” he declared. The former presidential spokesman also drew attention to the book’s criticism of poor coordination among government institutions, saying duplication of programmes and disputes over resources had repeatedly weakened the implementation of economic policies. He said stronger collaboration between federal and state governments, alongside effective monitoring and evaluation of government programmes, was necessary to ensure that policy decisions produced measurable outcomes. Describing the publication as an extensive examination of Nigeria’s economic journey from independence to the present, Abati said it interrogated successive development plans, the country’s dependence on oil revenue and the structural weaknesses that had undermined previous diversification efforts. He dismissed suggestions that the book was political propaganda because of its extensive examination of Tinubu’s economic programme. “This book is, however, not a political manual, not a campaign material, not a piece of propaganda, but it is arguably the most detailed interrogation of the Renewed Hope Development Plan introduced in 2023 yet to be written,” he said. Abati also highlighted the author’s argument that the administration’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy would require sustained implementation of reforms beyond the 2027 elections. He said Kofa had proposed the institutionalisation of what he termed “Tinubunomics” to ensure that the gains of current economic policies were sustained through 2050. However, Abati emphasised that the ultimate measure of success would be the extent to which economic transformation improved the welfare of Nigerians. Quoting another of the author’s observations, he said: “The architecture is sound, but the building remains under construction, and the Nigerian people are watching.” Earlier, the author, Kofa, said the book was intended to stimulate a national conversation on Nigeria’s economic future, drawing lessons from past development efforts while examining current policies and possible pathways to sustainable diversification. Tinubu, who wrote the foreword to the publication, described it as an important contribution to the national debate on economic transformation. Other dignitaries at the event included the Chief of Staff to the President, Femi Gbajabiamila; Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu; Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dr Dele Alake; members of the National Assembly, senior government officials, business leaders and members of the diplomatic community.   Tags:

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