ODM Collapses to 10%: Tifa Poll Shows UDA Back on Top as Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi Storms Into Second

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is Kenya’s most preferred political party, with 25 per cent support, according to the latest poll by Tifa Research.

The newly launched Linda Mwananchi Movement (LMM) comes second at 17 per cent, while ODM trails in third place at 10 per cent.

The numbers mark a dramatic shift. TIFA’s June poll had ODM leading at 20 per cent, ahead of UDA at 17 per cent and Gachagua’s DCP at 12 per cent.

On those figures, ODM’s support has halved since June, while UDA has gained eight points.

Linda Mwananchi, which emerged as an ODM faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, had the backing of 74 per cent of ODM supporters in TIFA’s June survey, against 20 per cent for the pro-government Linda Ground faction.

Sifuna now leads the Linda Mwananchi Movement Party, whose national secretariat launched on October 30.

In May, TIFA had found ODM, UDA and DCP statistically tied at 18, 17 and 16 per cent respectively.

A separate Politrack survey reported by Nation put UDA at 32 per cent and ODM at 10.6 per cent.

TIFA has also found support for the UDA-ODM Broad-Based Government falling from 44 per cent in November 2025 to 30 per cent in May.

DCP, meanwhile, climbed from 6 per cent in November 2025 to 16 per cent in May.

On the presidential race, TIFA’s May poll had Ruto as the most preferred candidate at 24 per cent, though three-quarters of Kenyans backed other candidates or were undecided.

Party support and presidential preference do not always translate into votes, and voters’ loyalties appear fluid.

As with any poll, small gaps should be treated with great caution.

Opposition leaders including Sifuna have pushed for a single joint presidential ticket, and Gachagua has signalled that the United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi could eventually form a coalition.

With ODM split, UDA back on top and Linda Mwananchi rising fast, Kenya’s party landscape is being redrawn ahead of 2027.

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