Mixed Reaction As TIFA Poll Shows Ruto And Sifuna Emerge As Joint Frontrunners For 2027

A new TIFA Research survey released on 12 November 2026 has delivered one of the most striking political findings of the year: President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna are deadlocked at 31 percent as Kenyans’ preferred candidates for the 2027 presidential election.

The poll, conducted between 26 October and 5 November among 2,036 adults across all 47 counties, marks a sharp rise for both men. Ruto’s support climbed from 24 percent in the previous survey, while Sifuna surged from 15 percent. Longer-term trends show Ruto rising steadily from 18 percent in August 2022, while Sifuna has rocketed from near-zero support in earlier years to joint frontrunner status.

Other contenders trail significantly. Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka sits at 9 percent, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 5 percent, and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 4 percent. Fifteen percent of respondents remain undecided. On the party side, UDA leads at 25 percent, followed by Linda Mwananchi at 17 percent and ODM at 10 percent.

Regionally, Ruto dominates in Northern Kenya (62 percent), Central Rift (59 percent) and the Coast (40 percent). Sifuna’s strongest bases are Western Kenya (55 percent), Nairobi (39 percent) and parts of the Coast and Mt Kenya. Among Ruto’s supporters, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki remains the clear preferred running mate at 55 percent, ahead of Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga (12 percent) and Mining CS Hassan Joho (9 percent).

The findings underline a rapidly shifting political landscape. Sifuna’s dramatic rise positions him as a potential unifying opposition figure, while Ruto continues to consolidate his base. With the 2027 election still months away, this 31-31 deadlock signals a competitive race that could redefine Kenya’s political future.

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